tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post5724713518160114354..comments2024-03-27T14:09:10.049-07:00Comments on Sillyinvestor: Portfolio update as of 2nd March 2014Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-69848281751072034012021-05-21T08:28:01.124-07:002021-05-21T08:28:01.124-07:00Do you need to increase your credit score?
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All you have to do is to contact us for more information on how to get started and get the loan you desire. This offer is open to all that will be able to repay back in due time. Note-that repayment time frame is negotiable and at interest rate of 3% just email us (urgentloan22@gmail.com)Dr Purva Piushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05883980841903455890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-1254576021554644062014-03-02T06:16:56.000-08:002014-03-02T06:16:56.000-08:00Thank you for the great articles that u have publi...Thank you for the great articles that u have published.<br><br>I would like to take this opportunity to link up with you.<br><br>My site is www.smartpassivecashflow.com<br><br>As a gesture of good faith, i have added your site to mine. Hope that u will also do the same.David Tanghttps://www.facebook.com/david.tang.7543653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-70428847064429934442014-03-02T15:02:24.000-08:002014-03-02T15:02:24.000-08:00HI David,Thank you for your interest in my article...HI David,<br><br>Thank you for your interest in my articles. Done.<br><br>regards,<br>Sillyinvestorsillyinvestorhttp://sillyinvestor.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-38759697102122395732014-03-03T05:45:54.000-08:002014-03-03T05:45:54.000-08:00Prudential Eastspring has continue to sell off APT...Prudential Eastspring has continue to sell off APTT, it is not longer a substantial investor. I wonder why? Buyers beware.sillyinvestorhttp://sillyinvestor.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-67295620940791342402014-03-04T01:48:00.000-08:002014-03-04T01:48:00.000-08:00Hi, chance upon your blog and very great informati...Hi, chance upon your blog and very great information you provided. I have also GAR, HPH and Sabana same as yours but they all failed. In fact I intend to let go GAR and HPH if the prices are rights and would not want to add on to Sabana (or any other industrial reit) as I foresee increases in supplies and possible rising interest costs. For GAR, may I know why would you want to add more to your portfolio and why you favour it more than Wilmar which has greater diversification (sugars, oilseeds, soybean etc)?Ping Hua Hoohttps://plus.google.com/106253657389891704760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-91304271257001718242014-03-04T02:08:48.000-08:002014-03-04T02:08:48.000-08:00Hi Ping,Thank you for your interest. I prefer gold...Hi Ping,<br><br>Thank you for your interest. I prefer golden Agri over the rest because it is easier to understand as it is a CPO purist. It is not a stamp of approval over wilmar, or other agriculture commodity plays. Wilmar or Olam or Noble has a diverse production base, such as sugar, and others etc, I find it hard to track all these products.<br><br>For CPO, I know Indonesia and Malaysia are the biggest players of which golden Agri is the second biggest , after Malaysia sime Darby, so it will be a natural beneficiary with the upswing of CPO price.<br><br>Why golden Agri and not other CPO plays, it is big, it is vertically integrated, has profit resilence, is a first mover in sustainable CPO production (whether for publicity or for the real altruistic reason of sustainability )<br><br>It is also fairly valued. CPO is a raw commodity, there is no differentiation, so it's assets should be priced rightly according to CPO prices, it is one of the few palm play trading at a significant discount to NAV. NAV might not be a good gauge for other company, but for commodity play, it is one of the fair valuation to use together with others.<br><br>As with all other CPO plays, golden Agri Q4 is strong, and will rebound with Ye generally market, but it will not grow as fast as the smaller and newer players with young plantation. I am fine with that. <br><br>I will not accumulate at current prices. I will only accumulate if it is nearer 50 cents.<br><br>Demand for palm is mainly from edible oil, it has a significant cost gap over alternatives. So I guess as with cheap oil, the demand will still be there, although the years of strong growth of demand might be over. Bio-Disesel might provide the small growth in demand. With sustainability call growing in Malaysia and Indonesia, there is also a limit how much these 2 countries can increase supply. It will be a long time before northern African countries become key players.<br><br>Lastly, CPO had fallen more than 40% from last peak when I bought it at 52.5 cents. That is the heaviest fall from previous peak ever recorded in 30 years, how much lower can it get?<br><br>Anyway, that last time I come close to buying it was 50 cents when market correct. I was hoping for 48 cents or lowers it never get that.<br><br>Ok! Hehe hope my explanation helpssillyinvestorhttp://sillyinvestor.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-21974616340256325852014-03-05T05:30:31.000-08:002014-03-05T05:30:31.000-08:00Prudential has ceased to be a substantial sharehol...Prudential has ceased to be a substantial shareholder for APTT, which is regularly paring down its stake, whereas Temasek Holdings through its subsidiary has become a substantial shareholder, almost doubling its stake from 3.71% to 7.59%<br><br>I wonder who is the "greater fool"?sillyinvestorhttp://sillyinvestor.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-38553608914115509042014-03-05T06:13:50.000-08:002014-03-05T06:13:50.000-08:00Second update: For info,There is also a response f...Second update: For info,<br><br>There is also a response from NICK and aplhaquant from valuebuddies (http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3256-post-75919.html#pid75919)<br><br>They make very valid agruments, personally, I will still like to see how this pans out.<br><br>Right now, I am assuming 0% growth till 2015, and refinancing takes place in 2015/6.<br><br>But they only need to refinance their loans in 2020.<br><br>Capex is reasonable, 2015 capex could be much lower, so might need to refinance loans much later.<br><br>That distribution is higher than FCF in 2014 due to higher cpaex is a valid concern, but if we look at FCF at a sustainable basis, the shortfall is not actually that scary, it is just 20-40 million, assuming capex is 60 million. They already reaffirmed DPU for 2014 anyway.<br><br>As for interest risk, if growth do happen in 2015, it might just net off each other. If not, the FCF should sustain 6 cents DPU.sillyinvestorhttp://sillyinvestor.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-49221077412189139252014-03-09T05:18:01.000-07:002014-03-09T05:18:01.000-07:00It seems that Temasek has stepped in where Eastspr...It seems that Temasek has stepped in where Eastspring has left off, for APTT, perhaps reducing some of the concerns. <br><br>I'd note as well that the competition in Taichung is likely to be assymetric in favor of APTT. The two smaller competitors who have applied to enter their district will have to put in far more capex, especially against their own base, than APTT. <br><br>Also, some operational comfort can be obtained from two ex Starhub professionals in senior positions in the opco. <br><br>Singaporean investors have a huge distrust for Business Trusts and I think that causes the depressed valuations. Hopefully APTT can be prove that otherwise!objectivenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2011194091106156925.post-68763259747819167132014-03-09T06:46:16.000-07:002014-03-09T06:46:16.000-07:00Hi objective,Thank you for your insight, I didn...Hi objective,<br><br>Thank you for your insight, I didn't APTT has 2 personnel from star-hub previously. Well, it's good that u share, and readers can see things from more than one angle.<br><br>Personally, I think in the short term, APTT might weaken, especially after they go XD. I believe prudential will continue to offload whenever price is decent. Unless, Temasek decided to go to open market to buy more, there is hardly any catalyst in the near term.<br><br>APTT is one trust that after factoring all the discounts, higher interest rate, zero growth, lower fcf etc, u still get a decent > 7% yield. If many things go wrong and I get 7%, but if things goes well, I keep my >10%. If things happen somewhere between worse case and best case, I will have a yield of 7.5 to 10%. How many reits or trusts can have this?sillyinvestorhttp://sillyinvestor.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.com