Life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
昨天有点倒霉。
前天孩子发高烧，
昨天带父亲去复诊。
在医院，人很多，等了好久。
我父亲看起来很累，
原本应该12 前结束的预约，
到了一点半才结束。
两点半还有下半场。
我打算带父亲去兜风，
让他在车上睡个午觉，
车就开不了。
最后只好，一起忍耐。
回去医院，找了拖车服务，
车子忽然能开了。
当时，以为走运，
后来接老婆时，车又死了。
不过，发现自己一人等拖车时，
很开心，
感觉像以前年轻时和朋友晚上不睡觉，
在小贩中心泡。
回到家，孩子还没睡。
因为孩子不舒服，
没有逼他读书，
只和他聊天，一起玩。
没有一点的愧疚。
第二天不用赶着送太太去工作，
带孩子去游泳，
就坐在沙发上看报纸，
和岳母聊天。
这不就是我一直向往的休息吗。
谢谢你，终于休息了。
而且没有一点愧疚。
傻？
因为不求回报？
还是一直想着回报？
每次陪老爸去医院，
看着周围，都觉得老和病，
真的很可怕。
每次都提醒自己感恩，
别贪恋。
坐在沙发上，其实，
我好久没让心情泛滥，
让那些不知所谓的，
都涌上，翻腾。
嫉妒，猜疑，
让他们逗留一会吧。
也好久没让他们进心房了。
一直做，一直想，
没空感受。
感受一切，
好的，不好的。
感受自己是个普通人。
一个烂人。
然后，再在起来，
去忙，去做，
傻傻地干自己该干的事。
明天，是我第十三个教师节。
以前一直很期待，期待收到礼物，
更期待收到感谢。
渐渐的，我的期待，
少了兴奋，多了点伤感。
依然期待，却不一样。
感觉上，天天都是教师节，
但这一天，这一天，
开始让我有点害怕。
我好像老了，
不再像以前那么受欢迎。
我不知道如果学生会来看我，
我要说什么。如果学生没回来看我，
我会难为情吗。
我还是很有虚荣心的。
让这一天快点过去吧。
让和我有缘分的同学，
继续惜福，
让我就一直教，做我想做的。
我还是有点怕成绩单。
我不需要礼物，
我知道有些孩子穷。
我不需要谢卡，
我知道有些孩子词穷。
但我能感应你的能量。
在心里的某一个角落，
我希望我会你最爱的老师。
你不必说什么，
我感应得到。
这一天，我觉得很别扭。
十年了，还以为心境如水。
哈哈
This is short qualitative analysis.
The bad:
1) The acquisition of the 3 Goh entities cause a drag on a otherwise would be decent recent. Q4 Gross profits would have been better, the 3 entities are loss making.
They restated the FY 2017 to include the 3 entities for apple to apple comparison, but looking at past reports would let u see the results much clearer. The 3 entities are loss making in Q4 but overall makw close to 20 mio profits in the whole year.
Without the 3, Silverlake would have a rather glowing report card, showing growth of it SBB services and one of the strongest quarter for the year and also YOY.
The good:
The margin has improved as project liscening and delivery of contracts have improve margin. The gestation period, finally seem to be over.
I have bought back what I sold off earlier at 48.5. With a higher av price of 52_54cents Market would most probably give the set of results a thumb down, but I will see how iy goes from here.
Was having a chat with another blogger, and we talk about dividend investing. So some of the ideas I am sharing here is not mine alone. I don't think he really mind as I think we agree broadly what is dividend investing.
So, there are many ways. Let's do case studies. These are the down the mountain case studies aka success examples. I shall not name who they are but I think bloggers know who I am referring to la.
1) yield at cost is ridiculously high. The stock that the investor is holding is a 10 baggers, so even if the company collapse tomorrow, he would have milk the counter 10.times over. U can sleep and no worry a bit about the counter.
2) Capital size big enough to have meaningful cashflow from dividends to be pumped back into the various counters for compounding effect.
Unlike 1) who is already retired, 2) is still working successfully. He has a warchest accumulating due to his human capital although he has blogged that he had taken a breather and is more chillax when accumulating wealth is concerned, he is most probably still working and accumulating wealth from his human capital.
Both 1) and 2) have a sound dividend policy because both can weathered any storm. While 1) is a retiree, he has famously made known that he depend on 3 taps. While he no longer has a big flow of tap from human capital, both 1) and 2) did not try to force their portfolio to be as large as possible to squeeze the maximum amount of dividends. This is call risk management.
As for AK, he is celebrity status la, so not need to talk about his rumbling of war chest and how he took advantage of 2009 to have his comfortable portfolio.
What did u see in common in the above 3 success stories.
Now, let's talk about us very medicores who are climbing up mountains and do not earn 500k a year. We do not have the first pot of gold or we started recently and have missed the 2009 period.
Highly unlikely that if we invest post 2009, that we can have 10 baggers. If u have a 4-5 baggers after 2010 u shouldn't be reading this but should be leaving a comment and direct me to your blog.
So how?
2 ways, we can continue to invest to keep ourselves alert and I believe there are still value buys out there if u are good at prospecting. But if u do not have a big warchest, do not earn big bucks, not sitting on 10 baggers, do not have a big enough portfolio that generate meaningful dividend yield that can still sustain the portfolio through market ups and downs, I think it is wise not to be vested beyond 50% of your portfolio.
I am talking about dividend investing, at current valuation, if u still think u can catch 3-4 baggers, again u shall leave a comment and direct me to your blog.
As the market falls, scale in. If u have 15 more years of investing before u retire, we will surely catch 1 more bear - bull cycle.
As we earn more, we invest more, but still keeping a decent amount of money in cash. This is an option to buy more when market turn downwards. As I say, we can afford to show hand if
1) u earn big bucks and your portfolio is a joke compare to your earning power
2) your portfolio is big enough and yield high enough to reach escape velocity.
3) u have multiple taps, perhaps properties? Is somewhat similar to case 1)
Otherwise, better not show hand. Worse, use leverage on dividend investing.
Look, leverage has its place. It magnify returns and loses. If u think u spotted a growth stock with potential to grow 30 Percent and perhaps be a multiple baggers, u are convinced and u hoot using leverage, I can understand.
But if u are squeezing another 2-3 percent yield from it, and trying to artificially inflate an portfolio, I think it defied logic.
Dividend investing, as it is, is about collecting money over a period of time, preferably long term, although we should still sell if we believe dividends is at risk. CFD need top up when the direction move against u, and if u are trying to inflate the portfolio, I wonder how much cash as ammo one have to be ready for that scenario.
Instead of leverage, I think many mountain climbers should think of CPF. This is where I differs over the blogger I had lunch with.
He felt CPF should be a last resort, because after firing so many rounds, the price surely is low enough not to cause serious damage to CPF.
I agreed, but given that CPF cannot be encash as we climb up mountains, I believe CPF can be staggered between cash to be invested in tranches. Of course, the heavy investing should take place through cash first.
The reason is this, we never know how low is the market, if I get all my cash call wrongs, and get my CPF calls right, it will be a long time before my cash is above waters right?
But if I stagger between the 2, there will be some tranches of cash that is entered at low enough price that I could possibly liquidate if I need the money. I told the blogger if possible, I would still use investment money than touch my emergency funds if there is a sudden large sum purchase that I need to make, for example, an kin's medical expenses. Personally, once I touched emergency fund, the peace of mind is gone and I hardly think I will make good judgement calls thereafter. But this is just my preference. I know of people who has multiple emergency funds. I do not have it.
Climb up mountain slowly. Mountain climbing can be dangerous, don't fall to your death.
Yesterday I was having dinner with my dad.
His walking is much weaker now. As I walk to the lift with him, we saw a neighbor using his hands to support himself. Their conversation left a deep impression.
They talk about the pain and ache of their legs. They brushed it off as old age.
The man asked if my dad is 80, and claimed he is 2 years younger. He then exclaimed how every year after 75 is a big difference to the preceding year. He now struggles with what he could usually coped with and it gets worse every year.
My mermories of my dad lifestyle conincide with what the man says. Aging, perhaps really caught up with my dad in the last 5 years. I remembered not too long ago, people were complimenting he was as strong as an ox for his age. He used to walk from whampoa to Pek Kio for breakfast and walk back.
Age is but a number. Some people start aging at a much older age. But once aging starts, it is clear and painful.
Every year is a deterioration from the previous.
Enjoy your years.
A pupil once asked me about heaven and hell. I told that pupil heaven and hell is in the heart. When we are happy with ourselves, it is like paradise on earth, and vice versa.
There are times when we look for the little pleasures to comfort ourselves. The easiest are material comforts. Think of food, spa, holiday etc. Some of the material comforts further bring about a sense of achievement or pride, such as car, poster photos on Facebook that show the most exotic tours, garnering record high likes. It is like killing 2 birds with 1 stone, enjoying the experience and stroking the ego.
My family went for a staycation during the national day holiday. I pampered myself with one of the finest hotel stay and buffet meals. Strangely, I felt very bored and empty. I am happy that my child and niece had a good time, but the holiday crowd gave me a headache and I am screaming inside. I could literally feel my heart beat faster in the queues.
I realize sadly, or fortunately, satisfaction come from my work rather than these little indulgences that I pursued.
It is not that my career is smooth sailing, but despite the headache it gave me, it nonetheless provide a calling and a sense of purpose.
I realize recently, life is about choices. I am not doing about choices accumulating wealth. It's about accumulating karma. There are many people I met, some toxic, some are my loved ones, some passing by. Whoever it's is, or whatever the circumstances, there are always an option to be kind and offer help to the distress. But real help is difficult, requiring a lot of follow up and real compassion to make it sustainable for both the helper and the beneficiary. It makes helping pupils seem like a breeze.
It also made me realise my cutivation is really low, as I couldn't really bring myself to help, rather 独善其身，一个人潇洒。
That elusive happiness. I saw it and knew how it can be like.
How do u define contrarian investing?
The most popular is buy when market is low and when there is blood on the street. But it is such common knowledge that I doubt it can be called contrarian, since by definition, it is about going against popular wisdom.
Personally, being a contrarian would need one to be exposed to short term pain.
I would think there is no such thing as contrarian investing. Its simply about convinction, which I lack.
I have some success with companies that I bought when they are doing well and they continue to do well. I have also companies which I bought when faith in them is low. Both have their hits and misses, so the key is not about being contrarian for the sake of contrarian but convinction of own analysis.
With the reporting season coming to an end soon, I do like Singpost. Their parcel busines is scaling up nicely, most probably due to the feeding of business from.lazada.
Since new management comes online, they have been taking writeoff. While the warrant loss is a surprise, I would he more surprise if the cleaning up is not coming to an end soon with the new board already in place for sometime.
Its another stock at 5 years low.
However, I am.holding off buying anything
This continous bull run is really getting on my nerves and I feel myself losing the discipline to hold a warchest.
Anyway, I have 3 months before the next reporting window. Those who report bad results wouldn't run up anyway.
The other company playing out as it should is ST engineering, and I tempted to buy higher to chase higher.
Again, we will see how it goes.
Anyway, if we look at the 3 telcos local.market battle, M1 seem to be doing the best in terms of getting new subscribers. Another company that is at investor rubbish dump without TPG firing the first salvo.
Was hoping TPG show their cards quickly.
They will surely have cheaper deals in order to gain market shares. The question is how much? Unlikely it will be a grab Uber type of cut throat competition, but anything between what is offering by market now and how far it cuts is very important.
In short, as long as u have a style that doesn't waver, u are already a contrarian. This is not to say u cannot change your style or try new things. Its about a core that u believed works. Some of the bloggers have it. Some show that they have it.
And theIr short term results is not the determining criteria
We all like good results.
Investors like growing earnings in the companies they invested in. As a teacher, I look for improvement too.
But recently, I have make a strong mental effort to be not emotionally excited or disappointed with results.
It helped me coped better. In fact, not only did the decoupling of expectation of results not cause a deterioration of motivation, it actually allowed me to push my pupils harder, without questioning myself so much.
When a staff talk to me about the stress of producing results, I am.not too sure why I suddenly retorted " I am sicked of results, just do your best for your kid"
I think I mean I am sick of attaching so much emotions to crossing of a particular arbitrary benchmark of results ...
I am very pleased that a pupil of mine has start to speak loudly and is able to quickly answer oral questions. She still fail, but I am already very pleased with her development. However, I know she is doing this to clear her exams and I hope she does.
I have extreme case for the other spectrum, pupil who did reasonably well during practices and is one of my better pupils but end up becoming the worst pupil in the exam. In the past, I will usually be very flustered, this time round, I simply speak with her, and ask her to try harder. I do what I can, I leave it to karma of mine and theirs to decide the final results.
So, what has worked? Actually, my boss always ask me what strategies to.improve results. I am quite sick of that question. She ask me why there are still failures, whereas my colleague walk to me and ask how I made a particular boy read and speak. They taught him in previous years and remember him as one who refuse to speak or read.
My answer is really simple, but never accepted. U can Ask me to think deeper, but I am stupid, so I can't find a better answer.
It's just 人盯人。 1 to 1 coaching and motivating. Encouraging them and giving them small successes. Then, Its practices after practices. When they are very sianz, talk to them. When they give u the "I want to give up face", u be around to remind them.to not give up without a fight. Most of the time, its a losing battle. Things like games, pie face game, piggyback on song, use of PC, flash cards, group work etc are things I do something to break the montonous of the teaching, because I know energy level is low and they are very bored too. But 80 percent of the time, they are practising questions after questions and I explain answers after answers. Sometime I crack a joke or 2, but those are time fillers, the icing on the cake, they are not the killer moves. I did ask many of my colleagues who are able to turn pupils around, I ask them what is their sauce very sincerely. I hear what they say, and see what they do, I dun think they are any far off in my approach. No fanciful stuff that u see in the internet.
I dun know how to be creative and innovative and do less learn more. I am happy with do more learn more.
So, if I am useless in showcasing the lastest flavor of the month, and slogans, I am truly sorry. I want my pupils to do well in examination and hence I focus on teaching to the test. I am not ashamed.