看着那桌子，
你不在那拼命地改书了。
空空的桌子，彷佛看到你教导学生。
回过神，就是空空的一张桌子。
课室外的走廊，也没有你和学生的身影。
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你的朋友问我，
你可以来我的补习班吗，
笑着说很想念我的课。
其实，我也很想念你们。
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踏进课室，没有玩捉迷藏的学生，
没有你们嘻嘻哈哈，
装神弄鬼地想吓我。
你们毕业了，有些音讯全无，
有的，还和我聊天。
听着我们一起用来教课的歌，
我也常回忆起你们。
或许，过去了，就不要想了。
新的形象吧。
疯疯癫癫的我，和你们有缘。
今年，可能需要的是斯文类的？
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梦里偶尔还会看到父亲。
那个世界再重逢时，
是看到年轻的你，
还是老弱的你？
来接我的时候，我是老了，还是一个小孩？
我也很想他。
First REIT
I used to owned FR and during October when it plunge to 50 cents, I actually bought more of it. I calculate the worst scenario of 4 maturing 2021 hospitals' fees being halved and felt 50 Cents will be a steal. My Average price is about 72 cents.
When Lippo announce unilaterally that they are doing restructing of all the hospitals, and price plunging, I do not have the luxury of time to re-calculate everything although I do remember DPU could well be Halved if all hospitals are reviewed and using a 10% yield as an estimate of fair value, I thought it can go to 40 cents, so I simply sold off all my holdings then for a small profit.
After the Restructing exercise is announced, I bought back at 44 cents, believing it offer good "value". Given I intent to do it in 3 tranches and 44 cents is my first shot, I am not overly concerned with the daily price movements, there and then.
The bomb dropped when they announced the rights issue. Rights issue is not a surprise, anyone investing in reits should be ready for it. What is "bad" about this Rights issue is that it is done with a hefty discount and will be used to paydown loans and not for expansion.
Yet, for all the negative surprises, what will I do?
Keep calm and subscribe for rights, including excesses.
Why?
I ask myself 3 questions.
First, is First reit at risk of permanent loss? Well, they may if they default, so I am not buying more from the market, but will subscribe to the rights. Also, since the major shareholders will take up excessess not taken up by minority, I know the probability I will be hanging dry will be low.
Second, will the operating matrix keep going down. To answer this question, I believe the healthcare (private) sector in Indonesia is still primed for growth. They have the right demography, and public healthcare is hardly a competitor, reasons being very obvious.
Silverlake Axis
I have already reduced my stake of SAL sometimes back, booking a loss. It is the only company that is close to 10% of my portfolio, so I reduced it to less than 5% now.
The loss is not crippling if taken together with the dividends I received, and also a short term trading gain when it went from 40 cents to 55 cents. (I sold partially then)
While the loss is insignificant in the overall scheme of things. What is frustrating is the Thesis did not hold.
1) Growth only happens in 2019, given 2020 is a Covid year, I could understand that all companies will be affected. However,
2) They further reduced their dividends payout ration by much more than the loss of profits. This is self-inflicted wound
3) The accuisitions of Goh companies are either bad timings, or really a bad deal. Since it makes no difference to both top and bottom lines. Well, at least there is no worry of top up of payments. FAT HOPES!
4) FInTech are all the rage now. Yet as a Saas company, it is not winning any major contacts. I wonder if the new digital banks will approach SAL?
Given that I have already reduced it weigtage to a rather comfortable level, I will continue to monitor it. Given its proftability, I hardly believe I have a permanent loss risk, unless it is a outright fraud. Yet, i believe the risk is low, given the high profile customers.