Friday, April 25, 2014

Random thoughts: what's holding me back from further investment

I have divested from Sabana and is looking at putting the money into good use. But couldn't find any comfortable buy.

One important reason is I didn't have the target price I want. One company I really want to get is venture. I wanted to get it below 7, cum Divided maybe a price nearer to 7 would be fine.

But market didn't provide the opportunity. It recovers from sub 3100 to almost 3300. I am not sure why market is so optimistic. Maybe it is just normal buying up for dividends.

I see market weaknesses ahead. Below is the reason why. I hope it provide chances for some counters to have MOS appearing.

1) although I dun think Russia and Ukraine will dip the world into recession. The market is glossing over the potential. It is quite clear there is no way forward. Russia will not give up crimson, the west might not insist on that, but seriously, anyone will some knowledge of history will know crimson will not be the last of Russian adventure . Push too hard, Russia and Europe will both suffer pains although I believe Russia is more willing to suffer pain.

2) STI has never break above 3400 convincing, the room for overall market gain and hence better valuation is low. It should be more of a sideway movements. I know there are talks of US, Europe and Japan all growing. But I think given how strongly US equity is doing, I think a more meaningful correction in US equity is long over-due.

3) end of tapering. It is a yawn.. Yawn. But is the market ready for what comes after that? A period of softness or increase in interest rate?

4) World Cup fever. As usual, the World Cup always make market volume falls, maybe there is opportunity then?

5) XD period follow by a period of correction usually throw up a few companies that overshoot to the downside.

I am crystal ball gazing again, bad investor! I am doing this to keep my itching finger away from trigger.

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