Friday, April 9, 2021

Accumulated more Capitaland

There have been much written about Capitaland split into a listed CLIM, an investment manager with an lodging arm. There is an 10% discount to the "offer price" of about $4.1. I think the 10% discount is an opportunity for me, as I see value in the new CLIM entity. This 10% is not an mispriced opportunity. The deal will only be closed by the end of the year, a lot could have happen. Also, it is not an cash offer, and the value if CICT could go up or down, making the deal sweeter or more sour. Hence, the 10% discount is justified. However, I took a longer term look at what would be the value of CLIM, and I believe it is not too shabby. The proposition for this deal is that valuation should improve, as investment managing business has NAV of 2.6, and yet CLIM is valued at NAV (1). I do not think CLIM would traded anything near 2.6, at least not soon after the split without the company proving it execution records. Yet, I hardly think such a business model should trade at a discount to NAV. So the odds of losing is low. (Not to mentioned the discount of 10% should provide a bit of buffer)

Let me restate some.numbers u can find online.

Investment and management fees in 2020 is around 700 Mio.

We know management fees for reits and funds are very stable as wth the case of ARA (before delisting) records, but there might be some volality with Ascott lodging business, althought the margin for Ascott lodging managing business is better.(70bps compared to 40 bps.) ARA before it delisted is doing 45 bps.

Using NP margin of about 50 percent from fees collected. I estimate EPS of around 8.5 cent to 10 cents, so in terms of PE, CLIM is hardly attractive. ( If u think 3 dollars is attractive price post demerger and 4 dollars is good exit price)

I assume 3 billion of capital injection to improve is funds or REIT business, and the growth to 160K keys materialize ( read the edge article) on this.

Assume 0.5 percent asset acquisition fees, 15 Mio + Increase in AUM management 12 Mio + 60 mio (increase of 30 k keys management )
for easy calculation, let's just assume 90 Mio (calculation is to get a sense, nvm to be exact,imho) and 50 percent of it will become profits so is 45 Mio.

We are looking at predictable high single digit growth of Clim EPS over the next 2 years or 3.

Nothing exciting, but reasonable again.

In all, if u look at PE growth, neigh...
If u believe in PB alignment Swee.

In totality, is a reasonable deal if u pay below 3.5 ( which u will be doing if u have been buying in the last 5 years, since not it is not often that it goes above 3.5 and stay there) 

Finally, the deal is hardly the deal of the century, but is it better than no-deal? 

I believed it is better than no-deal for most people with investment horizon of not more than 2 years, and are vested in the last 5 years.

You might not agree with me. Investors seldom agree with each other. But, pitching this as a dumping of troubled assets and comparing it to Sembmarine is pushing it too far 
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2021/03/30/mas-sgx-need-to-scrutinise-capitalands-latest-restructuring-plan-protect-retail-investors-from-its-troubled-assets/

So what are your thoughts? 


16 comments:

  1. Bro, not a bad deal for Capitaland! But why not Cap REITs or other REITS?
    Any idea what is Capitaland clear cut advantage over REITs? I did not do my research on Capland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was cured of HPV  with the use of pure natural roots and herbs from a herbal professional maker called dr Moses Buba, a man of trust and always reliable to his word. I actually thank you cause at first I doubt what others do, but you make me believe that good people still live . You can reach via email buba.herbalmiraclemedicine@gmail.com or WhatsApp him  +234906059305 for more information you can reach me also on my cell phone with text or WhatsApp and even drop a call on 0(501)9914802 . am grateful to share his work so I will share more about Dr Moses buba 





      I was cured of HPV  with the use of pure natural roots and herbs from a herbal professional maker called dr Moses Buba, a man of trust and always reliable to his word. I actually thank you cause at first I doubt what others do, but you make me believe that good people still live . You can reach via email buba.herbalmiraclemedicine@gmail.com or WhatsApp him  +234906059305 for more information you can reach me also on my cell phone with text or WhatsApp and even drop a call on 0(501)9914802 . am grateful to share his work so I will share more about Dr Moses buba 












      I was cured of HPV  with the use of pure natural roots and herbs from a herbal professional maker called dr Moses Buba, a man of trust and always reliable to his word. I actually thank you cause at first I doubt what others do, but you make me believe that good people still live . You can reach via email buba.herbalmiraclemedicine@gmail.com or WhatsApp him  +234906059305 for more information you can reach me also on my cell phone with text or WhatsApp and even drop a call on 0(501)9914802 . am grateful to share his work so I will share more about Dr Moses buba 

      Delete
    2. I got my already programmed and blanked ATM card to withdraw the maximum of $1,000 daily for a maximum of 20 days. I am so happy about this because i got mine last week and I have used it to get $20,000. Mike Fisher Hackers is giving out the card just to help the poor and needy though it is illegal but it is something nice and he is not like other scam pretending to have the blank ATM cards. And no one gets caught when using the card. get yours from Mike Fisher Hackers today! *email cyberhackingcompany@gmail.com


      Delete
  2. hi Rolf,

    Personally, I am wish to keep REIT to a certain Level of portfolio. I do have REIT, Ascott, ascendas, MIT First REIT etc.

    At one point I almost wanted to do CICT, but decided that Capitaland do more value.

    REIT are leveraged play with non amortized loans, and it still bothers me, no matter how well managed.

    In terms of growth, I saw Capitaland potential before this announcement, in fact, when it is suspended, I guess it is a spin-off of its investment management business but atlas, it is a demerger or sorts.

    So the first catalyst has worked out well for me.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I bought 13,000 around 2.60+ as I also saw value and guessing some corporate actions will come based on how active CAP was in recent times.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Anon,

    That is quite an unbeatable price. Great job

    ReplyDelete
  5. I was cured of HPV  with the use of pure natural roots and herbs from a herbal professional maker called dr Moses Buba, a man of trust and always reliable to his word. I actually thank you cause at first I doubt what others do, but you make me believe that good people still live . You can reach via email buba.herbalmiraclemedicine@gmail.com or WhatsApp him  +234906059305 for more information you can reach me also on my cell phone with text or WhatsApp and even drop a call on 0(501)9914802 . am grateful to share his work so I will share more about Dr Moses buba 

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Uncle Temp,

    I am fine. Hope u are good too. Glad u see value as I do.

    We all pay school fees before. Remember Schip?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi everyone, I saw comments from people who had already got their loan from Anderson Loan Finance. Honestly, I thought it was a scam, and then I decided to make a request based on their recommendations. A few days ago, I confirmed in my personal bank account amounting to $15,000 dollars which I applied for. This is really a good news and I am so very happy that I advise all those who need a real loan and who are sure to reimburse to apply through their email (text or call) +1 719 629 0982. There are sincere loan lenders! They are capable to lend you a loan. Contact Mr Anderson E-mail: andersonraymondloanfinance@gmail.com

    Phone: +1 719 629 0982


    E-mail: andersonraymondloanfinance@gmail.com

    Office address is (68 Fremont Ave Penrose CO, 812400).

    ReplyDelete
  8. Do you need to increase your credit score?
    Do you intend to upgrade your school grade?
    Do you want to hack your cheating spouse Email, whatsapp, Facebook, instagram or any social network?
    Do you need any information concerning any database.
    Do you need to retrieve deleted files?
    Do you need to clear your criminal records or DMV?
    Do you want to remove any site or link from any blog?
    you should contact this hacker, he is reliable and good at the hack jobs..
    contact : cybergoldenhacker at gmail dot com

    ReplyDelete
  9. I want to give a Testimony on how I got Cured From HPV. four years ago I was Diagnosed withHPV. I was having some outbreaks. I went to see a Doctor and many Blood Tests were done on me. My Doctor told me that there’s no cure for HPV. I felt bad, I went online searching for a possible cure for HPV, I saw a post of Milton Buckler, a herbal doctor called Dr Ovie who cured him from HPV. I contacted him and told him how I’m feeling and he said his herbal medicine can cure me. He sent me the medicine via Ups delivery service and I received the medicine some days after he sent it, i took the medicine as prescribed by him. Before the completion of the medication the symptoms stopped. I went to the Doctor and carried out another blood test, surprisingly I was Negative. I haven’t had any symptoms anymore, you can contact Dr Ovie  through his email address via ovie.miraclemedicine1@gmail.com  call or whatsApp Dr on this number now +2349056393169Dr Ovie also have the cure for different types of diseases like1 cancer cure2 lupus cure3 ringing ear4 herpes cure5 warts cure6 hpv cure7 hiv cure8 fibroid cure

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hello
    We are professional traders, earning on forex and binary for investors weekly, will love to tell you all more about our investment platform where you can invest funds as little as $200 and start earning $2500 weekly, alot of people has benefited from this investment offer before and during this convid-19 virus, if you passing through financial difficulties due to this coronavirus and you need help paying bills simply choose a suitable investment plan for yourself and start making profit weekly

    $500 to earn $5,000 in 7 days
    $1000 to earn $10000 in 7 days
    $5000 to earn $50000 in 7 days

    To Start your investment now contact Via whatsapp: (+12166263236)
    email: carlose78910@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  11. You need personal informations from companies,family and friends that will better your life and you need easy access without them noticing just contact james or you’re financially unstable or you have a bad credit score, he will solve that without stress,he and his team can clear criminal records without leaving a trace and can also anonymously credit your empty credit cards with funds you need,all these are not done free obviously but I like working with James and his team cause they keep you updated on every step taken in order to achieve the goal and they also deliver on time,I tested and confirmed this I’m still happy on how my life is improving after my encounter with him ,you can send a mail to premiumhackservices@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  12. This link on insurance was very useful for my search. To get best insurance plan click here to know more :- doctor video consultation app

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi everyone, I saw comments from people who had already got their loan from Anderson Loan Finance. Honestly, I thought it was a scam, and then I decided to make a request based on their recommendations. A few days ago, I confirmed in my personal bank account amounting to $15,000 dollars which I applied for. This is really a good news and I am so very happy that I advise all those who need a real loan and who are sure to reimburse to apply through their email (text or call) +1 719 629 0982. There are sincere loan lenders! They are capable to lend you a loan. Contact Mr Anderson E-mail: andersonraymondloanfinance@gmail.com

    Phone: +1 719 629 0982


    E-mail: andersonraymondloanfinance@gmail.com

    Office address is (68 Fremont Ave Penrose CO, 812400).

    ReplyDelete
  14. There are many benefits to having a garage door repair Acworth GA that you should consider. These include:

    -Improved insulation

    -Added security

    -Increased durability

    -Easier use

    ReplyDelete