Friday, March 23, 2018

Random thoughts: How businesses react to disruption or competition

Have been sitting on the fence and watching paint dry, while investors make a killing. Yes, even after yesterday drop of 70 points, unless u invested on Thurs, all the banks and properties counters are still way above where they were 3-6 months ago. U would still have made a killing.

I am thinking about how my recent investment thesis work out, the qualitative part of it, and I decided to do a summary here. Some companies I invested, some I didn't.

The ways companies can react in the face of disruption or competition:

1) Wait out the cyclical cycle

Companies like those in the oil and gas, like Sembmarine, and SIA engineering, there is not much there could do.

In terms of cycle, aircrafts orders are still high and increasing, but better aircraft need shorter maintaince and longer period between maintaince. My own personal tracking is in another 2-3 years time, there should be an uptick in major maintaince of all the new aircrafts in recent years. So companies simply just continue to keep.yhe network and forge new alliances in the hope of capturing the upturn.

2) Improve capabilities to find new niche markets.

This is mainly only possible for manufacturing and technology companies. Names that come to mind are Venture, and ST engineering.

3) Buy and consolidate competition

confort-delgro come to mind, after buying Lion City Rental, they overnight become a major player in PHV market, and with Uber as partner, finally relent and has their taxi fleet in Uber flash. But my scuttlebutt research show the taxi drivers do not like Uber-flash because of the low rate and their high rental.

Uber and Grab might be planning some consolidation too, but the awakard position is that Grab might be the buyer in SEA market.

4) Venture into totally new markets

SPH venture and Healthcare. Unless with the wildest imagination, it is hard to find energy with their media business.

5) Find New markets that has snergy, and existing capabilities can feed on

Singpost logistic business is a good example. However, for 4 and 5, the questions is how low or high is the barrier for new competitiors.

6) Price war to keep market share

Well it has not started, but I am sure it will happen when it comes. The Telcos. The recent new SIM plans if u dissect it carefully is a big yawn. If the new telco TPG comes in with a similar plan, it's going to be another big yawn, which is highly unlikely.

Some companies are doing 1 or more of the above and might see themselves more caught in 1 situation than the other. But it is intriguing to think through all the above before we read the AR to prevent confirmation bias.

Without saying which company, lines like "it will take time for mass adoption" is a big yawn that the new capabilities is not catching on.

In my universe of radar, I saw companies that could turnaround, and this time round, I will remind myself not to let it go with a miserable 40%, unless my thesis is proven right or wrong.

But I am still waiting for the right price for margin of safety. There is also company that with each passing day, the risk simply get lesser as they are in situation 1 too. However, the market might revalue them earlier. The only way the stars can be aligned is u k own they can wait out a cycle (cash rich), is still developing new capabilities for new markets with some results and valuation comes down further because there is negative sentiments in the market.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Random thoughts: Survivor mode 24/7

This is a continuity of my previous post.

I was wondering what SMOL and LP said in the comment section and I start to understand why I felt like that during the holidays.

Purpose. Able to answer "Why am I doing this?" When the going gets tough.

The last 2 days are crazy. I skipped lunch, worked non stop except for dinner until midnight. I am deadbeat today. Frustration, yes it's still there. There is even some tightness in the chest.

But when I see my pupils, suddenly the Why answered itself. I am doing this so that they can pass PSLE, so that those that suffered from inferior complex can build confidence and say "I can", so the few hungry enough for success, I give them a real shot at success and going to secondary school.

For the lazy, I spurred them to work. So that they can help themselves. I am so surprised when I make good my threat that I will look for them during lunch break to finish up their work, they are quite willing to do it. I really do not wish to take their break away from them unless really necessary.  But these supposedly "lazy" pupils just took their pens and follow, very unlike pupils from better class.

The why makes it less painful.

The biggest irony is I am so deadbeat that I can't prepare to teach my son properly or even teach at all

Friday, March 16, 2018

Random thoughts: Emotions and state of mind

This last 2 weeks has been a real roller coaster ride for me, both emotional and physically. Which is really baffling because my dad condition is getting stable and he is somewhat stronger. It is the holiday and I supposedly should have a slower pace at work. I shall not bored u with the details of what happened, but after anxiety attacks again (gone for a long while) and feeling unhappy, I stand to understand the following:

1) letting the guard down
Throughout the term, I am working on "fighter/survivor" mode. There are times where I can't really keep my eyes open but I carried on for my pupils, and feel satisfied with myself and the work done.

Because it is the holidays, I told myself having the night doing nothing will be great rest, but I somewhat do not feel discharged but rather felt very bad tempered with the amount of work still waiting for me to be done. The fact that I couldn't spend some time with my family on weekdays afternoon as my wife brought them out to the science center also affected me and made me sour about what I am doing.

Instead of feeling relaxed, I felt fustratation.

2) Relative Pain
Throughout the term, I have no problem working hard, as I see all those I respect also slogging for their charges. However, during the holiday, when I see Facebook photos of my colleagues overseas recharging I felt very short-changed. It seems that my cultivation level is still very low.

Towards the end of holiday that feeling of frustration get stronger and stronger.

So, what can be done.

I am not too sure about operating at "survivor " mode 24/7. I believe it will eat into our souls. Let's be honest, when u are in survivor mode, u are highly focused and effective, but you block out a lot of things that might not threatened short term survivability, I personally do not think it's a good thing.

But I do see 2 things that do help me with anxiety attacks.

1) Kindness? When I think about what I can do for my pupils, my frustration is reduced by half. It is stressful but the energy is different. Frustration and disatifaction is highly negative.

2) Acceptance. The fact that a relative easier week instead of recharging me, cause me grief, is due to me comparing with others. I would not accept that I am different from others yet can be happy.

Yesterday, I was deadbeat after a short badminton session with my son (he is still a novice btw, so it's not a tough session)

But when I am closing my eyes while sitting on the sofa at night, he suddenly came to my side and turn on the u-tube to listen to the pop that I liked. I simply enjoy the magical 30 minutes or so, just listening to music and talking about which songs is better with my son. Who need to go overseas, as long as we accept our own circumstances and not let grudge and greed prevent us from being happy.

May u be happy. I understood how it felt to want to escape, the normal poison of FIRE to quit my job was quite intense. But FIRE is not solution in the case

I was thinking to myself, perhaps "survivor mode" might not be that bad afterall

Friday, March 2, 2018

Random thoughts: A lesson for myself as much as for my pupils

Was feeling rather down after I knew my pupils' results. I have braced myself not to focus on results and instead of results. Easier said than done.

I do feel that the kids are learning, but ironically they still doing badly at the assessment.

I am quite surprised how affected I was, I was like drained of energy, just felt like sleeping my way through.

I am not sure how to break the news to them, I knew some of them have tried really hard. When we stay back late, and was doing a timed practice, I remember them pulling the chair away and kneeling down and then standing up to write so as not to fall asleep. I knew I have also tried hard, staying up late in the weekend to rush out customized worksheets for them.

I was very disappointed, and I am sure some of them feel the same. Of course, there are others who dun give a hoot too, and I wondered if I am too silly.

Nonetheless, I remember a lesson I did for my FTGP lesson. So I ask my kids to transfer water from a pail to another using spoon. It was a slow and painful process. Some kids enjoy it. Some started to get restless after a while and tried to take shortcuts etc. Some have their shoes wet and was a bit annoyed.

After the activity, I told them learning for exam can be like filling a bucket with water using a spoon. U tried very hard, but it seem futile. They couldn't even fill half of the bucket, and I told them sadly, none of them reach the halfway mark of passing.

We shall continue to do it, because after a while, when we have enough water over the other side, we will have enough strength to lift the big container of water and simply pour it over. It is called inflection point.

I told them I share their pain, because I was very disappointed with the results too. When I was saying this, I felt tears swelling but I quickly composed myself. I quick look around and I saw a few with red eyes and others with a sombre look. With this playful class, this is the rare few things I felt this sombre atmosphere and the connection.

I use this also as a opportunity and pointed out that as with most  human, when we dun see results, we get frustrated and sometime resort to short cuts.

We also need a bigger cup instead of a spoon. And hence u explained despite the efforts put in, we might need to do more. I think this is one of the rare time I don't get a protest asking pupils to do more work.

After the session, the lesson going through the papers is so much easy as most pupils focused on the lesson. And I felt much better finally able to get my feelings off my chest.

A lesson that is for myself as much as for my pupils

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Silverlake axis- Could trust be rebuild?

Apparently, no many think Silverlake could turn around and see better days.

For the past 6 months, shares buyback is relentless, just check the sgx announcements, and the volume bought back should not be scoff at.

Price hardly move when the market is busy cheonging.

For the past 3 quarters, it is dishing out special dividends as it milk GIT.

Price hardly move.

The last few quarters that are projecting improvement in special projects revenues and in this quarter, guided that liensing revenue would be growing.

Still no impact.

Dr Goh is owning 70% of the company, is injecting companies via shares at premium prices, making his stake even bigger, and a easier target for privatisation

Price went south

I have got it all wrong and I have recently accumulate further, this counter itself forms 30% of the portfolio.

Maintainance and repair revenue is dropping.
Perhaps this is what market worry about.

Perhaps market still worried about razor short selling report

Perhaps market is worried about corporate governance.

Nonetheless, I decided to go contrary on this one.

I hope I am not wrong again and again.

Friday, February 9, 2018

Random thoughts: unexpected conversation during relief lesson

Was tasked to relief a P2 class, I know with my temperament, it is not easy to teach lower primary, but we'll, it's still better than doing admin.

The instructions left by the teacher is to teach vocab, so I just try my nonsensical way for them to remember the word 送

I ask, what word did u see? They said 天,I say the 2 dots are eyes in the sky, and it is watching u, if u are good, just like santa, it will send a gift, hence it is 送。

They are amused, lower primary pupils are easily amused by difficult to manage to be quiet and pay attention. Some ask, what about the left side.

Hmm... As I didn't prepare for my lesson, I just very randomly ask, what does the left side look like to u?

I buy time to ransack my brain for ideas. In the end, i say part of the left side look like a thunder bolt isn't it? So, if u are not good, but happen to be very very bad, 老天劈你。They laughed. I ask them to close their eyes and see if they can remember how to write the word, they could remember the meaning, the pronounication and strokes. Mission accomplished, and I ask them to do their writing exercises.

A boy came up to me and ask me, "good people go heaven and bad people go hell right" I say hmmm...

Then he continued, "because there is Jesus right"

I recognize the boy, he was the one at the student care center giving hell to all sorts of teachers. Just last week the office actually called me to bring him down to see the principal. I was amused and ask "why need me" they told me he was difficult and had refused to move when the office staff went to pick him

I went, he was not austic, he just had issues. He crawled under the table and was screaming and crying. With the school counselor, we play good cop bad cop and mange to get him down in 5 min (no prize for guessing who is the bad cop)

Back to the class, I find him quite obedient in my class, and he actually followed my instructions during my teaching to raise their hands and wait to call on them if they wish to speak. So I ask him "where is heaven and where is hell"

He pointed to the sky and say heaven is up there and point to the ground and say hell is below.

I put my hand over his shoulder and bring him back to his seat and say "heaven and hell are in your heart, when u are happy, u feel like you are in heaven and when u are unhappy, u feel like u are in hell, isn't it"

He was kind of taken aback, and after some thinking, nodded his head.

I ask, "are u happy with what happen at the student center last week?" He shook his head and suddenly very loudly exclaimed "Hey! U remembered me"

It was my turn to be amused

What an unforgettable experience for something not planned

Tuesday, February 6, 2018