Saturday, March 28, 2015

Random thoughts: Similarities matter more than differences

In teaching, I went from understanding the differences to focusing on the similarities. I feel that in going one circle, a clearer picture has emerged.

It mattered not how they learn differently, it mattered not how their have varying interešt and home support.

It matters that I go out to chase after them one by one, hunt them down like enemies. 

It matters that I focus on what I want to acheive, and whip, push everyone to meet that finishing line. 

It does not matter if they are "guai", I cannot go softie, for those who falter on the progress, chase. 

It does not matter if they have better foundation, if they cannot self-study, the chance was given, now it's time to spoon feed and chunk and make sure they learned. 

In the past, ICT is the magic tool to engage pupils, surprising, Now, it is simple word cards game that ingnite their interest. The tool is not important, the important is I go all out to make sure this tool is highly effective in teaching and assessing pupils progress. It is important I keep refining the method and get the right one that clicks

It is the similarity that is important. Why did I not do individual analysis? 

I seriously feel like a second grade teacher in my new school. It's really my luck that my previous P see my strength and overlook my weakness.

Doing book check and file check recently, I realised how disorganized I have been. If I have been a teacher under my Senior Teacher, I think I would have get into a lot of troubles.

What is the difference? Let's not dwell on  it. let's focus on trying to do the right thing from now on. I start giving model answers so that pupils' work are more organized, and Velioa, the more motivated girls in the P6 class learn really fast having a "model" to refer to. It is easily for me to change, then for them to adapt, no matter how altruistic my reasons for cognitive development and not giving model answers. 

I still have difficulty coming to terms with copying answers for corrections. But I am slowing moving towards providing answers and model for complicated solutions. 

It is really a very hectic week, where work done during the holiday is lost, causing a panic attack, especially when I am so hard pressed for time now. My school going through EV next week, management is on tight wire, those from my profession know how SEM and EV makes people go bonkers.

I focus on doing the right things for my pupils, my mum and my boss, squeezing
Whatever I can. Whatever I feel burned, my 2 thoughts to keep me going are;

Do the right thing.
Today will end soon. 

Some good things will happen along the way when I keep to this. I am not sure about pupils' results. But I think I might have found the missing mojo.

My cooking is better too now, I think.

I did this 


Friday, March 27, 2015

Random thoughts: Self discovery and imperfection

Self awareness can be scary when you don't like what you know as the truth or that your thinking is not "mainstream" In the past few days, I realized:

1) Do I love  my mum?
I am coping very well with the care-giving of my ill mother because I do not really love her. I suddenly remembered how affected I was when fortune teller predicted my son had a tough life, how uncomfortable I will be if I upset my wife due to my sensitivity. I do not really have heartaches regarding my mum, to me, it really is doing my share of responsibility to care for her as well as possible to the best of my ability.

2) Fatigue is  a mind thing.
While I am more tired than usual with longer "working hours", I had it worse before. During National service, while taking care of my son when he is younger, and even during my A level preparation days. They are many a times I spend only few hours sleeping because I am out catching up with friends. I feel so "sianz" and tired for working till 10 p..m. 4 days a week? It also makes me think hard about point 1.

3) Is the Media over-doing it for LKY?
I have utmost respect for him. But I am not very comfortable about the way Media is presenting his case. While there might be questionable consequences to various interest groups in his political days, I think he did not make those decisions for selfish reasons and that his contributions to Singaporeans as a whole far outweigh the grey areas. But, it made me wonder deeply about the unspoken effects on Media on the populace during special events.

Ok. Thats my babbling for me to unwind.

RIP Mr Lee, 2 things that struck me watching all the media productions of him is

1) Vision, how "wonderful" Singapore can be.

2) Strength to carry it through.


Saturday, March 21, 2015

Random thoughts: First day of care giving.

Today is the first day while the whole family went to the specialist clinic to hear what the doctor says about my mum's conditions.

Fortunately, the cancer cells have not spread to the other parts of the body, however, she is not suitable for surgery yet, because of low blood cells and high sugar levels in the blood, she is also very badly infected due to the lumps.

The doctor showed us how to clean and disinfect the wounds, lumps, and refer us to another diabetic specialist who would work with her to keep my mum diabetic under control.

I was shocked when my brother told me mum has been eating only bread for 3 meals for the past 2 weeks due to her loss of appetite. Hence the low blood cell count is partly due to poor nutrition and lack of iron.

It is shocking because whenever we returned home, my mum would easily wipe up 4-5 dishes and I remembered seeing ingredients in the fridge. I check the fridge again today, it is still well stocked.

If there is one thing that struck me as I do care giving today, is:

I always assume my parents are highly independent. They are, but they does not mean they do not need our care, although they do not want to burden us.

When I brought fresh food to prepare dinner for them, I ask where are the salt, oil are. I realized the wok has not been clean for days. The floor mat is soaking wet. There is no proper separation of knife or chopping board for vegetables, meat or the likes. There is no paper towel to clean and dry the cutlery.

I also realized how little I know about Chinese cooking, I need to call my MIL 2 times to ask how to store food, how to prepare food, what to do, what to add etc.  

But by 5 p.m. I still managed to do these.

I taste them myself, definitely not very tasty but at least I think I didn't spoil the food.  

There was plenty of planning to do, of which my wife gave the suggestion of getting a caterer for lunch and dinner, she mentioned there are healthy options. Anyone got any lobang? I got a number, but I think they do not work in the weekend.

Lets hope everything go smoothly according to plan. Fingers crossed. 

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Random thoughts: Emergency fund? Don't make my mistake.

I count my blessings. 

That now that my mum is diagnosed with 4th stage breast cancer, my siblings and I are all calm, composed and discussing. No one acted big boss, no one overly kanchong or overly helpful that actually inevitably add on to stress level. 

However, although at the back of my mind, I have always been mentally prepared that my parents hospitalization will be a big expense when the time come, it is still scary. 

Talk about 6-12 months emergency funds. I have only about 3 months, and I thought it will be enough since I have a iron rice bowl. 

What a delusional thought. 

It's ok. I think it's high time my investment and FF plan take a back seat. Over the next few days, I will be taking opportunity to increase cash. Especially the higher risk companies. I no longer can afford to wait out a bear, any profit making counters or breaking even counters might be cash out. Cannot bear to wait for it to be in red when I need money. I have reduced stake for Lippomalls, ST engineering, Sembcorp Industries and Singapore Shipping. I am grateful that I actually have the option to cash out of investment. Most probably will need money to hire another maid soon. If the price is right, I might cash out further, if the price is wrong, at least I have increased my buffer. I am going to surrender my endowment policy later in the afternoon. 

I know SMOL might not agree with this, but do get private care insurance when u are able. While it might be a myth that private care is better; trust me, when your siblings wanted the best for your loved parents, you wouldn't want to be the one clamouring for govt hospital care,
Especially when time is the essence. My mum has refused to face up to it, and refused check ups and my brother and I  didn't insist. My mum 重男轻女,when my sister ask to see what she is stuffing in her bra, she choose to hide and refused to talk to her. The doctor told us the lump is around for 2 years. 2 years! It's only in recent months that signs show: she start to slim down, etc. When my brother asked, she relent. Maybe we could have tried harder. 

A friend just told her relative treatment cost 160k in a government hospital!!! It really is scaring the shit out of me, because even if we divide that amount by three, it is still scary.

So my readers, if u are starting out in your young 20s, save and save! When you are married, there are many problems and it is harder for compounding to work. It might really be good idea to discuss with your wife about getting a car. If she is pregnant and you want convenience, get a second hand car. Explore explore explore. 

For me, I am not going to lament the past lost, or opportinity not grasped. 

I do see how much "wonder" what money can do, but I do think I can let go of money and FF dream. 

Life is still beautiful. Look at my mum, she didn't understand that her neck ache that refused to go away could well be due to the spread of cancer cells, she still bravely said after the surgery, she wanted to get it done once and for all. 

My dad who is always "verbally abused" by my mother, eyes swell when he knows she got cancer. 

My wife ask me not to worry about home. My brother and sister are not engaged in blame game. 

Me, I have more time for myself, family. 

I thanks Mr Karma for 手下留情。

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Random thoughts: Investing for the present

We have always read about investing for the future and letting compounding effect works so that we can be financially independent.

Given I am still working in the holiday, with the effect of the flu medicine trying to knock me out as I work and write this post, the promise of freedom is tempting indeed.

However, we must not forget to invest in the present. Invest in relationships. Nah... Not mistress. But really, invest in yourself and your family.

I must really thank my wife who always come out with ideas on where to bring our son and her godson out for fun. She brought the sentosa 4D adventure unlimited pass that come with the free Wings of Time show. It is really a long long day, we reached home at 1030, and the next day, I work my guts out at sentosa again at the flea market.

But really, as I am feeling grumpy and tired, I count my blessing.

Nice view isn't it? Do I really have to wait to enjoy such good fortunes? I can have it now. 天伦. Look likes those hong kong series of the super rich way of living. Well the carpark is $9 per entry, I got a shock when I exited in 31 minutes. But what is $9

Investing in the present is more treacherous than sparring with Mr Market. We do know Mr Market goes in cycle, miss a bear bull cycle, you most probably have chance for 1 or another. Missed your child growing up? Good luck! 

Its really the state of mind that we are investing in when we invest for the present. Now, I am out grumpy with the work stacking and news just came that my mother might not be in pink of health yet refused check-up. I was a bit affected, and then, I went on to accept things as it is. I will try to find some weekend time for heart to heart talk in trying to persuade my mother to stop deluding. However, who am I, her son to dictate how she want to live her final years.

Beautiful isn't it? But there are no takers, after working my guts out. I simply look forward to the end of day coke. Although I cough a bit after taking cold waters, I have decided not to be too harsh on myself. Life is there to be enjoyed. 

Why am I so emo? I have 2 colleagues diagnosed with cancer recently, another colleague's wife just got a miscarriage. I have a junior staff, having sick ill-laws and dad, so stressed out that even she was down with thyroid, and what can be worse? Well, how about allergy to the thyroid medicine given by the doctor? Although my head is kind of spinning now, I feel I have a good life.

Having a good life is sparring with the shifu of Mr Market, Mr Karma. Invest on the present. 

Do not be faked by Mr Karma's moves that make you think you only need to live today. Today comes tomorrow and the day after next. It is not use trying to search for that Zen feel when you are feeling upset, instead, just be upset. Put it down and move on. 

Mr Karma do not allow compounding to work, its forces are too complex to understand. If you go today, will you have lived differently? 

Monday, March 16, 2015

Random thoughts: My experience as a flea stall owner

Sales is terrible.

I already treat the cost price of materials as donation to charity, and was hoping to just break even. Nonetheless, it was a great experience, although hectic experience, trying to be a teacher giving supplementary in the morning, a administrator handling department work and a stall owner in the afternoon.

This is what I learn:

1) Revenue can be deceiving

My cost of materials is about $200, I am selling for stuff for 100-250% profits, because I know for sure, it will not be a sold out. Surprisingly, the blank DIY kites do move, there are customers buying them for their kids to decorate the kites. SO I reduce the price of the decorated kites. Still no takers.
Last hour, everything go at below cost price, since I want to move the cost money into cash as much as possible to contribute as much as possible to charity. The day revenue is $85, I have more than half the goods left, which can be used during the school's carnival, but it pretty quite sums up the risk of looking at revenue growth only especially when profits is negative. It is not a sign of  turnaround, since it could be due to  clearing of inventories.

2) Luck play a part

The Chinese Painting Kites are beautiful, I do not mind keeping a few of them as decoration for my cubicle. In the last 30 minutes, I am already packing and keeping them when a lady came, asked about the Chinese Painting and asked to see all the paintings. She even ask for number in case she need more. Too bad, every thing is going at below cost price then. She took 3 decorated kites and 2 blank DIY kites. I could have earned 200% more if she was earlier by 1 hour.

3) Cost is important

Remember my colleague collect used stuff toys from pupils to sell. They bundle up the items for sale. They had the highest sale because the items are really dirt dirt cheap because they are free of cost anymore. It reminded me that when Lee metals is still a stockist, it used to buy scrap and sell them back as steel, although this supposedly low margin model is detest by investors, I see it in a different light now. Too bad, the poor steel market makes the merchandising arm of lee metals dying off.

4) Market analysis

Demand is always more important than cost management. Those who brought kites are parents who wanted something for their kids to do. However, many who walked past the flea market include many tourists and young couples who have no need for my product. Of course, my price is not attractive too. Ability to navigate the market is important.

How I feel:

Kids are really adorable! I was wondering if they will get bored or lazy. Nope, their energy level just keep going up as the day draw nearer to a close. My girl also went to a nearby cafe to tout which I quickly put a stop to and explaining why we cannot do that. However, A* for effort. Although her intention is fun more than advertising, she did try to use the small open area to fly the kite. LOL

I have a boy who has homework problem. He however is the one to keep doing the rounds, approaching strangers to buy the kites. The best part is they do not seem to be affected by rejections at all. The quiet girl however, really is still a quiet girl, but serve as a very responsible and reliable stall owner to take care of the cash box. 天生我才必有用,千金散尽还复来

So, although it is a long and tiring day, if you ask me to do it again next year, hell yes! But no kites

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Latest action: Sold Venture

Just a short post to update readers. 

I sold Venture to increase cash.

There are 2 reasons to sell, either target is meet or moat is lost.

I am glad it is the former. 

When I research VENTURE, I see clear sky for the next 2 - 3 years and I expect to keep getting 3 round of dividends, any capital gain is bonus.

Given I got my 2.5 years of dividends in 9 months, I am contented to take risk and money off the table.

May the person taking over VENTURE huats!! 

That's why I never proclaim myself as a Value investor, I can't resist taking profits. Since my buy target is reached I pass.I do think Venture has a certain Morton terms of capabilities. 

Random thoughts: Twice bitten, twice the pain

My pupils just finished their CA test. 

Both classes I had did not meet expectations. 

However, after analysis of data, I realised my better P4 group is underperforming more. I am not whinning for sympathy. I have done difficulty correlation test, relative comparison etc. My better P4 is underperforming compared to a weaker group. Very obvious, the problem has to be me, the teacher. 

This is the second time I underperformed. Why? I did as much if not more than what I used to. There are more practices and more measured time allocate for "fun" activities. After some ample time reflecting ( thanks to a useless conference where I am sitting through but no longer listening) I realised there are many assumptions that I made that were wrong.

I am aware that there are colleagues (teachers) within my readers. So let's go. Hope we don't make the same mistakes. First, the excuses:

1) different pupils, differeny profile with weaker cultural assets, and also pupils are not used to my teaching where answers are not forthcoming. They just need more time. 

The above where true, is simply not the cause of underperformance. 

I wrongly assumed the following:

1) obedience and quiet pupils who did their school work diligently as motivated pupils who need no scaldfolding. Do note that I am not blaming my pupils. I am blaming myself for complacency. I did not break down the notes into small parts, be I thought I should not spoonfed them too much, expecting them to go beyond the notes, in actual fact, I again wasted a good 10 week window. 

2) I believed my pupils have better foundation than my previous school pupils. I think I am right about them but wrong about the assessment difficulty. I taught too slowly. The bag of tricks which is sufficient is not inadequate. 

3) Well-behaved pupils need less monitoring. I used to be always at my pupils' neck because they are mischievous and have problems passing up homework. I do not have such issues here. What a blessing. Such that I do not insisted that they show me the notes taking etc. Again,my pride lead to fall. 

4) It is not the engagement and social activities that I planned for them that I should remove. I should really not barked up the wrong tree. The paper which did determine their marks is really different, and I am still living in the past thinking how can brighter pupils who are also obedient do worse. They can, because the difficulty is different, and also their misunderstanding of concepts, no matter how small, is masked by their obedience and diligence in handing in work so much so that I slack in monitoring.

Twice bitten, twice the pain. Hope I get it right next term. Cheat me once, shame on you, cheat me twice, shame on me. The shame is mine... Sigh...

Friday, March 6, 2015

My take on grouses of value investing

The My investment framework is steeped in value-investing doctrine. I do FA, never TA. 

I do not consider myself a value investor because I hold the term "value investor" in awe and believe I am not in the league of "value investors"

Before I start, I want to be very clear what I hope to achieve in this post. I want to explain my take to beginning value investor wannabes who are doubting or confused about the doctrine. I am not implying it is the only way, neither am I saying it is for everyone. If u are experienced investor, this post is not for you. 

1) "Long term" and "buy and hold" does not work well?

For value investing, Warren style, they want growth to make a stock cheap.  WArren buys big company with moat that can continue to grow in the longer term. So they believe time is part of the equation to returns, like the goose that laid the golden eggs. 

Now, they have the discipline to ride out various market cycles and they buy with MOS, so usually it is during down cycle that you get good MOS. So if long term means Mutiple bull and bear cycles, wouldn't it be better to buy at bear, sell at bull and buy back at bear. Buy and hold is stupid and not optimising returns, isn't it?

Value investors do not believe in timing the market. I am not saying no one can, one should properly throw in the sink if he can predict the up and downs of market CONSISTENTLY. Anyway, although Hathway do not pay dividends, the companies they buy almost all pay dividends. So the concept of eggs harvesting apply. Also note the eggs either get bigger or more as compared to initial cost capital. Need not look far to Warren, just look at local Uncle CW. Yield on cost. 

Do not look at the gap between the peak and the current price and think buy and hold is stupid. 

2) Value investor don't sell?

That is FOS. They sell if they believe a moat is gone or if something is grossly overvalued. Do not mix up buy and hold with not selling. However, it is true that do not aim to sell at the peak, although if something is grossly overvalued, it will be at a peak, but if they sell if they think the moat is disappearing, they might well be selling at a loss too. 


If you ask me to explain my take on value investing and summarized in 2 simple sentences. They are:

1) buy cheap
2) keep your balls during bear 

For detailed explanation, read chapter  8 and 20 of the intelligent investor. 

Ok, I think ruffles enough feather from SMOL's camp. SMOL yuan Xiao is over, feel free! LOL

Random thoughts: My first 6km jog for the last 5 years.

After my ROD about 6 years ago, I never need to clear IPPT anymore. My fitness went down the drain, I didn't find the discipline to train regularly, there is some ad hoc run/ jog, but the fitness went downhill.

My health is weaker too, rather frequently down with flu. Makes jogging tough. The last time I tried before today, I managed less than 15 min. I know my mind is getting weaker too.

So, today I wake up extra earlier to join my 2 running fanatics for a jog. I reached school at 545 a.m. They were nice, keep asking me if the pace is ok. I asked them not to worry about me, I will turn back on my own if I am tired. They asked me not to. Actually, I know with my big "ego", I will lost probably not turn back at least really I am fainting.

So we go on and on. They run in front, I follow behind. Then I remembered SMOL picture of a apple in front of oranges. Hmm.. Benchmark has it motivating effects too. I thought maybe it is companionship not benchmarking. But then, if the 2 runners in front of me are not 2-3 league above me, I think we will all quickly stop and give up.

The next question that come to my mind. Will I do this with them again. If we benchmark unrealistically, we might just give up. If we choose a easy benchmark, then the benefit might not be that good.

Also, what use is just one run? When we benchmark, we should be consistent. Keep getting at it.

But please, benchmark for benefit, for enjoyment. I felt a sense of accomplishment when my colleague told me we took 45 min to run 6 km. I know that's not fast, but heck, what's the big deal, and my colleague agreed.

I will never jog for so long both in term of distance and duration for a long time.

If when we benchmark, we feel sad, unhappy ... Then forget about it. Go slap yourself and look at the mirror and ask yourself to wake up and stop whining. Do all your want, fight all you want, slack all you want, duoluo all you want. Be nice to yourself

Random thoughts: Your support at sentosa Flea very much appreciated.

Dear all readers,

Remember about the Sentosa Flea Market I blogged about sometime back. (See Post)

It is a charity flea market and 100% of the sale proceed with go to Hospice Care Association. (

The event will be held at Sentosa near Merlion Plaza on 16 March 2015 from 2 p.m. to 7 p.m. Pupils will be saleboys and salegirls, peddling kites for my stall. Although the objective of the event is to learn "entrepreneurship", I think it is more appropriate to say that I will this as a platform to teach kindness.

Today, we stayed back together to decorate the kites. With the exception of 1 or 2 pupils, I do see the efforts to make their kite beautiful, and the concept of someone need to buy this, sink in and most of them do take pride in their work.

Pity the boys, I think they are really just not as  细心as the girls, plenty of time I need to do "damage control"

Why kites? I remembered fondly the story of 《风筝》by 鲁迅。I talked about the story, about not missing out on the childhood and to be kind. I even wanted to teach them about the culture and history behind kites. But too bad, they have their CA exam, so just do the art part. LOL.

Do you have something to do on the 16 March 2015? If not, how about some family bonding and outdoor kite flying? I used to write my wishes/hopes on the kite and let it fly.

Ok... Now to the point. Please come and support if you are free. OK? I am afraid I end up with disappointed kids.

It is quite obvious which ones are done by girls and which are done by guys and which is done by me, isn't it?

Have not decided on the price, Maybe $10, if sales is really bad, maybe $5 

If you like any of them and like to reserve it, please drop me a comment. LOL. Think I am stretching this a bit too much. LOL.

Anyway. Spread the words around and be there to support if you are free ok.

If u like Cheena Cheena by pro, we have the following by a colleague's friend

My favorite is the goldfish. What's yours?

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

How I research on companies

My post is inspired by B. Realised instead of rambling over there I think I do a more detailed post here.

I will not go into the number parts, which I think B already did a wonderful job, and I shall not parroted it.

1) Now, it's good to know the numbers of competitors too. But how do we know the competitors. There are 2 sources: 1) prospectus and 2) analyst reports.

The problem with prospectus is if company is listed for donkey years, things might have changed, but they provide information on customers and suppliers too. 

Most analyst reports compare competitors, some good ones give customers' info, the really quality ones give cost analysis, supplier info. Yet to see such a report that has all three. 

When you compare metrics like margins, roe, PE etc, it is Important to ask why there is a difference. Here u need to read qualitatively their review of the business in both AR and QR. Some differences are justified. For example, LEE metals is becoming less and less of a steel stockist and more and more of a manufacturer. It's more accurate comparison will be BRC asia. Also ST AEROSPACE And SIA ENGINEERING are not good comparison. Although they have overlapping MRO segment; they have different other differeny segment too, for example ST Has AMM segment and its overseas markets are different from SIA ENGINNERING. 

2) Read the footnotes of AR, maybe not every single one, but those info on interešt cost, maturity and segmented results together with SSH AND DIRECTORS' remuneration are important. I need to compare it over time.

3) Read the last 5 years announcement. Pay attention to their Coporate actions. Fund raising, their acquisition, their disposal, their expansion plans. On hindsight, check if management has the foresight to navigate the industry. When you cannot make sense of their Coporate actions, do visit valuebuddies forum, most probably It is discussed there. After reading, you can then make up your mind better.

4) Next, read the most recent quarters carefully and scrutinized their upcoming plans and events unfolding. For example, I genuinely think Parkson retail Asia is getting really attractive, until I read about them closing the outlet at Hanoi. I am happy that they closed the outlet as it has been a letdown for too long. Also, in the prospectus they assume 1year of operating loss for newly opened stores before sales get ramped up. Hanoi struggle has been highlighted for more than1 year, so it also provide some certainty how long they are willing to bite the bullet. Until I google Their hanoi outlet and shocked to see the manner the "eviction" is carried out and after researching  on the NLA of that store and the potential compensation in terms of rent they have to pay and it's very clear the  amount they set aside is grossly not enough. That is how I hold back from any potential purchase. I email IR and the reply did not satisfied. Do question IR and email them to get info, but it might not be always forthcoming.

4) Read industry news. I have recommended sites for some industry news under the recommended reads tag.  It is better to understand whether the industry is cyclical or not, and if it is, where is The cycle you are at. We are definitely not at peak of shipbuilding cycle, in fact,we might be nearer to bottom as many shipbuilders have collaspe and consolidation has taken place in China in terms of the white list of ship builders. How about O and G? Definitely not near the bottom because simply, have u read of any smaller players going bust so that demand and supply can rebalance? Removing of Rigs does not count. steel industry might be further away from peak than o and g is from peak. But that does not tell us if a company is a good buy. YZJ good time to buy is before the white list. Again no one can timed the market but it is good to have a feel of the industry cycles.

In conclusion, there is plenty of qualative research you can do in conjunction with the number crunching. 

For example, if DCF, if we assume 3% growth, how do we know if we are conservative or liberal if we do not do qualative analysis. How do you know the discount rate is enough??

Random stories: An interview with Mr Market

Q: let's cut the chase, how do you actually value counters.

A: I like your style, you are impatient, most probably you will lose money to me LOL. 

Oops sorry, most of the time, I just play the nice guy, if many want a counter, I quote higher so as to
Persuade people to sell, if less people or not people I quote lower, to get the buyers out in the market. 

Q: HOW about in the long term?

A: we have to understand long term and short term are not mutually exclusive, if there is no short term, there is no long term. The importance here is certainty of these short term event unfolding. 

When a company is mature, and is stagnant or growing very slowly, I consider yield to be important. The more certainty of the many short term payout adding together, the lower the yield I demand, and the price hence accordingly 

For growth companies, again it depends on the certainty of growth. If I believe a company can continue to grow with many short term growth Spurs, I give it a higher PE. HIgh PE does not tell you whether something is overvalued or undervalued, the certainty or the perception of certainty of growth determine it. If u see growth for 1-2 years , and you see a SME becoming the next blue chip in 10-15 years, the PE I accord them will be different. Other considerations like FCF, balance sheet strength are consideration for certainty of growth, if I see a company burning cash faster than the ROE, what certainty is there to talk about. Therefore I have to discount it accordingly. Anything in between is an art, I also accord lower yield and higher PE for big companies who might still grow to accord for future yield growth, but never as high as those hot grow stocks which double every few years. The key is to know when re-rating is about to happen. Is a company going to be a sexy grow stocks for years to come, or has it mature to the state where it's growth should be compensate by yield. If something along that line give way, expect valuation to give way too.

Q: It seems your valuation method do not always hold true. 

A: I AM ALSO HUMAN, I make mistakes, get depressed or overly excited. Also, as I said, I am a Market whore, I tried to serve as many participants as possible, so I take notice of those of higher liquidity than those of lower liquidity. So if a counter is super boring and not looked at by people, I might overlook it. Also, those super hot counter, I might "over" look too and fall in love with it. 

Q: Your valuation seem too simple for accuracy.

A: aiyo, how many times have I tell you I am a human and market whore. I also agar agar one. Look, if I ask you, what do you think of your wife/ girlfriend, you will say she is ok, she is sexy, she is a bitch etc. Will you say on a sexy index of 1-100, she is 74, and that is due to the fact that her breast is 32 inch waist 24 and bottoms 31. 

We all got a gut feel about beauty etc. But we know something is not beautiful when it's there, for me, I am just concerned about not being completely wrong than being 100% correct. 

Q: your concept of certainty; nothing is certain except that we are all going to die, so in a way, you just wasted my time isn't it. 

A: aiyo, if can be so certain, no one makes money liao. Also, although we cannot be certain, the more angles we look at it, the more confident we are. Like you say your girl chio, if I see her figure chio, her looks chio, her demanour chio and her friends all bo chio, and cannot make it, we can quite safely say she chio right. Just make sure you dun look at the eyes only and see chio and forget to look at her as a whole. Also, if she chio because she super high maintainence, need to go spa, do pedicure, facial every week, that I think you are better off with a less chio girl but need just a shampoo and a body foam. 

Q: I think we are getting out of point and you are showing you MCP side too much, I think we will have to end this interview. You have not been very helpful, thank you !!

Monday, March 2, 2015

Random thoughts: A fortune teller's prediction stirred me.

I believed in no fortune telling. I always felt even if we assume accuracy in prediction, it is just a point at the time, what happen leading to that point and after that may matter a lots too.

Also, I believed fortune telling can predict events, but never our reactions or state of emotions to it. I could be ill but feeling contented, having the high of life but always grumbling. 

Today, my wife told me she went to see a Buddhist shifu with some friends during CNY. She was quite worried that I would get angry because I always tell her not to do such thing.

She told me the shifu told her she had a relatively smooth life, but our son's life will be tough.

My mind keep going through the first 2 paragraphs that I written, and some more. So much so that I realised I am quite affected by it. You can predict my life will be full of obstacles and I think I will be less than or not affected at all.

But I keep looking at my son just now. Then I realised the fact that I keep repeating the first 2 paragraphs in my mind is that I hope the "prediction" is not true. Whereas if the prediction is on my life, I think I would just say "let it be"

I then realised how much my son meant to me than myself.

What's my point? Nothing, just letting off steam. No underlying zen moral, no need to think too much