Surprising, my Emergency fund and my investible fund is both at my "historical" high, I would usually have a hard time keeping my hand off trigger, but this time now, I am really quite restrained given that I am looking at several counters that I have researched on earlier.
So what cause the change?
Laugh, it's because I have been reading SunTze War Strategies, both Sun Tze and Sun Bin's work.
Ok, this is a random thought series, move on now if u are Into financial stuff.
Despite my hectic work schedule, I have been reading 2 books on and off. The first is "Alibaba" and second, Sun Tze War Strategies.
Initially, I read just the online PDF version, it didn't give me the kick. So I borrowed the book version where Sun Bin's version of the "science" of war is also included. It is more specific and elaborated.
It was a very engaging read as compared to when I was reading it during college days, because i saw a different dimension to the theories. I keep trying to find parallel with the investment world.
Even when I was reading how Alibaba killed off eBay because of its "complacency", I can relate to its concepts of war. The fund raising strategies etc, keep ringing parallel, it's like reading 2 books at the same time.
I used to think of money as "soldiers" and counters as "territories" that offer dividends or capital gains.
Slowly, I began to feel that money are soldiers but counters are "generals"
That go hand in hand.
The tactics, the overall strength, the wealth etc...
Everything I feel like buying now, I got this nagging feeling, 孤军无援。No reinforcement. 知己，I realize my annual injection of capital to this investible fund is really small, maybe just 10K a year. How do I hold and defend my territories, how can I support my "generals"?
Also, I keep asking myself, how confident am I in making money out of this? I am no longer so gung ho.
Also, I start to question how much I might "win" if my assumption is right, and how much I am willing to "lose", the win lose profile do not seem very favorable except for 1 counter.
It seems very silly on hindsight that I am willing to take 20-30% profits with also 20-30 possible loss. Where is the meat to risk the "troops"
I also look at business at another angle. I see the management as really part of the business, and begin to really appreciate that business even with the low profits at the wrong cycle.
I start to look at the elements of victory, such as timing, terrains, formation, etc and I felt very inadequate that all I have is perhaps using "timing" and "terrains"
I do not have with me the tools of "mass destruction" aka fire of leverage, my formation is perhaps only 1 type, but I do have my empire behind me. (My wife did not oppose to my investments)
So I decide to be very selective in my battle.
Sitting on cash used to be very bo Liao, as there is nothing to blog about, but now, I keep thinking of "养兵千日，用在一时” (same as Buffett's swing hard once for home run)
The irony is, I also felt less motivated to share what I think of an business, of course I know how I feel does not "move"
Market, but I somewhat feel that the least people talk about certain angle of a business, the better, at least before I buy the company.
Ok, enough bullshit. Thanks for reading.