Saturday, July 26, 2014

Random thoughts: My mental journey with Parkson Asia

Ok. I feel guilty as I penned this.

Remember I blog about Parkson Asia. I bought at 86 cents. I believed it can be a grower. Some short term pains perhaps, but a longer term good company.

When the company fall 4 cents in a single day, from 86 cents to 82 cents, it scare the shit out of me. The dividend yield of 3 plus percent did not provide enough painkillers effect. I sold out.

It became clear, that physiologically the 4% lower limit dividend would require a price of 75 cents.

It hover above 80 cents for quite some time. I key in an alert for 78 cents. It was breached quite soon.

Volume was extremely low, so when I have to make a decision to queue at 74cents or just get it for 75, I choose the later.

Of course, the price went south further. This time round, my mental model is vastly different. The conviction that it's ok, just wait is loud. In fact, I always tried to buy in tranches, I am
Looking forward to get my second tranche with the announcement of FY results, if it disappoint. 65 cents would be the next entry point.

Do note that I am not talking about the merits or lack of in this investment. I am talking about sticking to my plan allow me a piece of mind, and hey, 86cents and 75 cents is not a lot of different given the small amount of shares I bought. But it is a world of different mentally. I now know what I would do to approach other growers theme.

The story remain the same. High cash level, 24 cents per shares will allow it to be in net cash position as it expand aggressively, since the asset light concessionaries model is highly cash generating. The cash level will go down definitely as it expand, and if the gestation period of the new stores take longer, then it's attractiveness will be further reduced. But will this company go the way of loss- making? Highly unlikely as the home turf Malaysia has the biggest share of revenue.

Story the same, but mental strength different, because of the uncertainty of not following my own plan. The earlier is panic and unsure, this latter is calm ... Until the next storm

18 comments:

  1. From what you have written on about.me : "First started investing after 911 incident, thereafter made a mistake of thinking I am genius for making money in the stock market during the subsequently bullrun. Return all profits to Mr Market after getting caught in the CAO fiscao."


    Just one CAO stock, it wiped out your all gains since Sep 11?


    I also lost quite a bit on CAO

    Read? CAO

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  2. Yup CW, I was a super greenhorn then... U cannot imagine my stupidity. I was still studying, my investible money is only around 10-15 k if I remembered correctly.

    For the blue chips gains, I diversify and took profits early, from about 30% to 100%. The 100% gain is from SIA 200 shares. I brought only 200 shares, so although is 100% I make less than 2K. Other like CDL Singtel etc net me another 3k profits I think.

    Then I plough in slightly more than 13K into CAO. All my investible fund into one counter. I average down just days before the AGM when it's parents rejected the purchase of SPC.

    In the end of the restructuring, I got back about 4K. Which is like lottery since I write it off.

    So net net, I lost more than I made. The loss of about 4-5k is recovered when the STI ETF I bought in 2009 double in value. The rest is history with its hits and misses.

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  3. You the man sillyinvestor!

    Most financial bloggers will share their plans and what they intend to do - almost in the same zeal as Joan of Arc"s "If you believe me follow me!"

    But few will review their plans and share their truthful reflections when reality and plans don't tally...

    CW is the few who does. I still can't stand his XXth new record highs "big trumpet" postings; but at least he not afraid to show where he fell asleep on the wheel ;)

    Making mistake is OK.

    Making the same mistake twice can be forgivable...


    But making the same mistakes over and over again its another thing.


    It's always refreshing when people blog about their missteps ;)

    Hey! You're not Superman!

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  4. Thanks SMOL,

    I just hope my mistakes don't cause anyone any grief.

    That's why for a period of time, I am not sure if I want to continue blogging about companies...

    Anyway... Money money money... My life has revolved around it most of the time. There is no need to wait for financial freedom to readjust the focus.

    I just have to continue to delude myself when I see my peers getting another property and making big bucks by saying, Hua he Zhu hou (happy can Liao)

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  5. Hi Mike,

    I don't blog about companies as much as I used to. I agree with you that it is a mental tug of war sometimes.

    One lesson I have learnt in my journey as an investor that will see me through the rest of my life is to have "the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good results" (credit goes to Warren Buffett). So, if it is not a price that I believe gives me a good enough margin of safety, I won't plonk money in the stock.

    If prices did go much higher as I waited, then, I bang my head on the wall a few times and move on. "The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it's going up" (credit goes to Warren Buffett again). OK, I admit that I wasn't always so and maybe still not 100% now. There is still a bit of a trader in me.

    Anyway, I enjoyed this blog post and now I have another hot tip to follow. LOL. Kamsiah. ;p

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  6. Hi AK
    Talking about price going higher as I wait, I totally know what u mean, remember Singpost? We were talking about 1.22???

    I almost bang my head twice with venture. I had chance at 715 and 720. I was already tracking it very closely with my research almost completed. I was hoping to get it cheaper with the correction but the correction never came.

    Finally, I decided that if my thesis is right, the current price is still ok. So I got in late at 735... Given the normal correction should be imminent, it remain to be same if Q2 will show recovery, especially when electronics export is so poor. There is still a chance since Venture has only a very small segment for computer components

    Hot tip? Unlike you, I accept cheque of thanks. LoL!!!!

    Blog not covered by lemon law... LOL

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  7. Hi Mike,

    Ah, Singpost. I had forgotten about it until you reminded me just now. Ouch. LOL. ;p

    To be quite honest, I can look at incidents like this one quite philosophically probably because I have been in the market for much longer. I am not trying to brag or anything here. Just sharing an observation.

    It is partly because I have made my money in stocks and still making through my investing for income approach that provides me with a feeling of contentment. If a few money making opportunities slipped me by, then, so be it. There will always be other opportunities in future. The market is always there.

    It is also partly because I have accumulated a war chest that is pretty substantial and I know I can take advantage of opportunities when they should appear again. 人無千日好, 花無百日紅. Same goes for Mr. Market.

    So, when SMOL sometimes pokes at me, I know what he means. I have blind spots.

    And, no, I don't think blogs are covered by Lemon Law but being in the niche we are in, another regulation could really sink us if we are not careful. Make sure to have a water tight disclaimer that will not buckle under the weight of legal scrutiny. ;p

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  8. AK,

    Totally agreed. We are at a different phase. You already have a substantial invested fund that is self generating, I am still trying to build that same base to work on.

    But the good thing after attending invest X congress is I think it is not so gloomy.... After this laughable 50k base... I am going to accumulate cash unless I see a really good deal.

    True ... I know of many counters that I have not research in dept, that have become multi- baggers. UMS, straco, valuetronics, challenger and more...

    Just have to know we can't make all the money ...

    I am also thinking of increasing my emergency fund and reducing my opportunity fund in the coming years. Since I think I might try for another lifelong financial liability( baby)

    So I think I will stay poor financially for a long period of time. I hope in compensation, I stay rich in other ways...

    Self delusion in process ... Ignore me...

    Btw... The disclaimer got ba k meh??? I dun think so in the eyes of the law

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  9. Hi Mike,

    Ah! That is an advantage I have, I guess. I am 一人饱,全家饱. Well, technically, maybe, not yet. I have to probably care for my aged parents once they stop working.

    Well, I believe that if you continue saving what you can every month and continue investing for income, your life will only become better even as you add a new member to your family. I believe you are a prudent person and you will keep a tight lid on cost which is what sinks many families into a financial quagmire. -.-"

    Ba ba disclaimer? The disclaimer in my blog was crafted by a lawyer friend. You are welcome to cut and paste in your blog, if you like. You will find it right at the bottom of my blog. :)

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  10. Ok thanks... I will do it at night ... I am not quite sure how to put the disclaimer... I bigger IT idiot than u when blogging is concerned

    Actually looking backwards, I know why you are so upset when a seminar organizer take u for a ride and CMZ scare came. When u have a base of followers, no matter how small, u dun want to cause grief.

    For your case, it is a big followers and some are die hard fans... That's beautiful and scary at the same time.

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  11. AK and sillyinvestor,,

    We can't disclaim ourselves from a lawsuit one lah.

    You think private and investment bankers don't have disclaimers?

    When high net-worth clients lose money, they still take their private bankers to the courts...



    The best form of birth control is abstinence ;)

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  12. Hi Mike,

    You are using Wordpress. So, I don't know how it is done in your case. Blogspot makes it very easy for IT idiots turned bloggers like me. ;p

    Sigh. Yes, even if a problem did not originate from me but because I helped to spread the word, I became a contributory force. This was why the distributor of Slim10 pills was brought to Court together with the manufacturer by Andrea D'cruz and fellow victims.

    My blog is now a monster... A gentle monster, perhaps, but still a monster. -.-"

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  13. Hi SMOL,

    OMG! :o

    OK, I will stop blogging now. -.-"

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  14. LOL its too late now. All evidences will be tracked back 3 years down the road. ASSI is a well- known blog. It will be easy to find witnesses and "victims", u have a right to remain silent, but whatever u blog now will be future evidence against you....

    Hahaha please la

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  15. It's nice not to take ourselves too seriously :)

    A pleasure shooting the breeze with you two!

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  16. SMOL,
    i have made so many of the same mistakes .... i am such a hopeless fool.

    http://sgchest.blogspot.sg/p/dumbo-bee.html

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  17. Just new to the blogging scene. But I do share a similar mental journey - I bought a fund using my CPF monies just one month before the Global Financial Crisis struck. And I had to take a five-figure loss when I needed the money to pay for my flat deposit.

    I guess sh*t happens sometimes. Ah well.

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  18. Savier, welcome to the blogging scene. Hope u have recovered and grow stronger scene. Welcome to the blogging scene, while u will meet like minded people. Some entertaining ppl like SMOL, AK LP blogs are found on the right of my blog.

    In investing, SHIt happens!!! We can only hope to make it back on the next cycle

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