Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Random thoughts: Stock selection and market timing

Recently, my mum-in-law said she was afraid of Korea War, she asked me how. I told her if she is very worried, take some money off the market.

She asked me to take a look at her portfolio. Some of her counters were from donkey years, salted fish until cannot salt Liao. I ask her if she want to remove deadweight, she said ok. 

She showed me her sgx statement for the past few months, the period of STI rise of about 10%. I realize almost all her counters, also rise and gain with the market. Some of the counters are penny with no real future, but they still gain to different extent. The blue chip counters, those bought 2-3 months ago all gained. It's those that were bought way long ago that are still sinking in red

Makes me wonder if we are better off timing the market? 

12 comments:

  1. Of course; ask those veterans who have decades of market actions either they win or lose due to market timing. LOL!

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  2. Marketing Timing is important.

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  3. I won't say timing, but rather amount paid for with respect to value. Even if it's a bad buying price the dividend tends to offset the gap leading to gains. #SPH

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  4. Market timing is underrated.

    Waiting for value is also market timing.

    War chest approach is also market timing

    Dividends can make a wrong less painful. But let's aim for capital gain and dividend growth too

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    Replies
    1. I always know to buy but miss to sell. See my SingTel:( sighz

      Then some I sold too early then regret.

      Sometime really hard to make decision.

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    2. Yeh,

      Transfer your 平常心towards Health. In your investment

      Delete
  5. Well, I'm stupid & lazy so I only invest in broad ETFs, and I use long-term momentum timing, e.g. EMA200D. I don't want to give myself headache thinking too much, so this method gives enough wriggle room not to be whipsawed during normal 5%-10% market corrections, but protects me from major crashes or recessions. It's kinda old-man style investing. But this method allowed me to retire early thanks to escaping the GFC of 2008/2009 and participating in the subsequent QE recovery.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Anon,

      It is precisely simple things that work like this that should be continued. Investing should be simple but not easy. Wonderful. U are not lazy. U dun sweat the small stuff, and has the wisdom to tell the difference between complexity and common sense

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    2. Btw what broad ETF u refer to? Those listed in US?

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  6. I only use Vanguard ETFs. Previously for many years I used VTI (US total stock market index) on NYSE. Only problem is I pay 30% withholding tax to Uncle Sam on my quarterly dividends. Later I moved to London stock exchange when Vanguard ETFs started trading there (no more withholding tax). Trading expenses for London is much higher than for New York, but the savings on the withholding tax more than makes up for it. Now I'm also using Vanguard ETFs on HK exchange. Have a large open position in the Asia-ex-Jap ETF. When the time comes for me to exit my London-based S&P500 ETF, I will look to reinvest in HK-based S&P500 ETF, to save on trading expenses as commissions for HK is cheaper than London.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the sharing Anon,

      I have not Venture beyond singapore shores, although I did ask my broker to link up with HK market. (Was looking at banks at one point of time) thanks, I will check out the Vangard ETF

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