Thursday, October 19, 2017

Random thoughts: Some uses of behavioral biases

I have been reading on behavioral  biases. 

This is just some musing, serious readers can stop now. I think these biases are bad for investing but good for family life, especially if u want to hitch a wife or girl.

Confirmation bias:

Confirmation bias give you perseverance. Everything she does or not do, you will interpret it as dropping hints, lol. She refuse a date, you think it's playing hard to get. LOL.

Illusion of control bias:

You think you can control her happiness and joy, because you think you are her center of universal and vice-versa.

Hindsight Bias:

Hello, if a courtship and/ or marriage is like" I don't what will happen tomorrow, past happiness is not any indication of tomorrow, then super ... zzzz

Of course, I think because I am happy with her today, I would be happily ever after right?

Anchoring 

Anchoring irrevalant data gives one hope. She used to be 32 23 32, be after she bears you a son, the numbers can messed up, but you believe those numbers will happen again. That's the right "value"

Framing Bias.

A marriage or courtship either ends in success or failure. It's binary. But we says we can enjoy the process too.

Availability Bias.

Wa, if we don't have this bias, then the world super chaotic. You do peer comparison and think wa her sister better !! 

Loss aversion Bias.

If we unhappy then cut loss... hmm... think we might be divorcing again and again. In fact, this could be what be keeping a lot of marriage intact.

Endowment Bias.

Hello, of corse la. If not, every time you go to those gatherings, u keep thinking  the grass greener on the other side... 

Ok. I know. I bo Liao. In conclusion, sometimes being too clear-headed is like having too much vitamin 

6 comments:

  1. Really funny. I never looked at those biases through that relationships-perspective.

    Those genetic shortcuts are everywhere. We can never be immune to them. But the more I know about them, the safer I will be from self-deception. Or am I just suffering from Bias Bias here? Who knows.

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    1. Andy,

      I like the word u use, "Bias-bias" it's like oxymoron. But isn't that the true.

      There are more:

      "I never underestimate my enemy." The moment someone said that, he is suffering from over self-confidence. First the word "never", second, if u really see the enemy up, the word "underestimate" don't even prop up.

      Another example, in one of my philosophy inclination, they say "clinging" is bad, learn to let go and be zen about what happen.

      The irony is, I think some people cling too much to the teaching.

      So perhaps, genetically, the best is "don't know" and be humble ???

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  2. Great examples.

    "Genetically, the best is don't know" - I fully agree our human default setting is 'we don't know much". There are just too many unknown unknowns out there.

    I chose to stay humble to prevent me from placing absolute trust in sensory perceptions, personal experiences, and even thoughtful conclusions.  I attempt to stay adaptable, to always reconsider, revise, and change my mind when better evidence demands it.

    I guess, every serious investor becomes more humble as the time goes on. The markets have a great humbling-ability.

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  3. Hi Andy

    Great advice. Easy to know, difficult to apply. Especially when we are successful and “achieving”. Some setbacks while painful might be good. Mr Market is 1 teacher. Many others

    Regards
    Mike

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