随心笔:《明日歌》二读

明日复明日，明日何其多
我生待明日，万事成蹉跎

通常用在奋力向上，
其实用在忘了和亲人在一起，
也一样贴切。

随心笔：简单的人生

简单的人生，
就是去做应该做的事，
然后不去想其他的。

因为做该做的事，
够你想很多了。

接受了，就无需再想。

看你是想要多想，然后才接受，
还是就傻傻的，
像白痴一样接受后，然后不想。

Random thoughts: A night stay at the hospital

My dad claims he is seeing things at the hospital, so I decided to stay overnight to accompany him.

It's at B2 ward, so it's packed with another 4 patients. It can be very noisy even late at night with nurses checking on the patients and the patient beside my dad coughing and clearing his phelgm.

The next day, my dad said he is scare of the person beside him passing away, and that he has big eyes,and look rather scary.

My wife told me that during meal time, that patient beside my dad do look at my dad, because he is being fed through a tube, and while my dad might comment that the daily  non changing diet of porridge is getting bland and boring, it never dawn on me that it is considered a luxury for the patient beside him.

Hence that look.

Not sure why I am quite affected by my wife observation. Make me realise the things we take for granted, like eating.

I am also thinking to myself that night that the man beside my dad is really quite noisy, how do my dad get a proper sleep. There is no sense of empathy at all.

His wife is always accompanying him when I visit, and after seeing me for a few days, gave me a smile.

How will I go next time, I just hope my mind is still strong, if I cannot control which organ or cells to fail.

Random thoughts: Insights gain when teaching pupils memory techniques

Felt like ages since I last blogged.

The techniques here refer to the journey method by Dominic. It has worked amazingly well for me, but I am not sure if I can say the same for my pupils, so for the last 2 weeks, I have been trying it out. This is what I discovered:

1) It is not the fastest way to remember things, but if u do it properly, it has high retention rate. My weakest pupils, if I have ascertain they are doing it correctly, has retention rate of 80-100% after 24-48 hours

2) During the association and visualization phase, if they use English meaning to visualize, they will recall the English meaning and not the Chinese word. For example, those who visualize a leaf for 改过自新will recall "turn over a new leaf" and not the Chinese pronounciation, so the way forward is to use the shape of the character or the Chinese pronounciation to visualization.

3) For my weaker pupils, it work best with sound, the meaning Part should be left during linking and imagination phase. For example, 鼻子一酸，my girl thought of and drew a picture of a swan. So cute

4) It cannot be transferred. The association and imagination must be done by the pupils themselves. I demonstrate how it is done, those who copied my journey has low retention rate and took longer to remember.

5) imagination is the toughest part, most of the time, I supplied the storyline to link all the pictures to the place in their journey. They laughed and remember. But few can do this phase without help.

6) move backwards before moving forward is important. Even I dun have a good memory, a pupil in a top class that I relief can remember all the words in the white board in matters of minutes. When I ask how he do it, he told me he just remember. Upon prompting, he told me he can visualize the whole white board with the words on it, talk about photographic memory!

7) To remember sentences, the sequence of appearance during the linking and imagination phase is very important. Otherwise the sentence gets disjointed easily.

8) Memory is not low level cognitive process like what some of my colleagues remarked. It encourage my weakest pupils to do self-directed learning since I have prove to them it only works well when u own the visualization process. There is no handout to be given, they create their own picture notes.

9) The techniques don't work well with pupils with good memory. Because they skip the steps because they can remember easily. But my son forgets very quickly too. There are others like that boy, who need no such memory aid.

I am going to try paragraphs soon, to be combined with concept of hook, preset system and peer check and repetition. Memory may or may not be low level, but I think it has given my weakest a sense of achievement, they can remember things now. I saw some.joy of learning in them now. It gives me much joy too

Thank you reading.

Random thoughts: New Year New Gadgets

I started with 2018 being quite loose with money. I use money to improve productivity. I seldom pay to use online tools, but I sign up Pro acc for Purple Culture Chinese tools, so that I can create word puzzle, Bingo Sheets, and Flash cards faster. I also went for a paid version for PDF converter, I know there are many free versions, and using Word Documents can convert PDF file too. But they usually get converted in a messy manner, but not the paid version when I use the trial.

I have also finally make the switch from Iphone to Xiaomi, and I love it. I am quite turned off by the high price tag and I remembered LP raving about Xiaomi, so I bought I Mi Mix 2 and I love it. The screen size is big, exactly what I wanted because I do a lot of reading online, and frequently blogged using my Phone too. The transition from IOS to Android took only 1 day of pain and I am used to the interface already.

I gotten my phone at 30% of the price of a iphone 8 plus which I am considering too, I considered it value for money and I like the light-weight of Mi Mix. Also, backing up is now easier since I already use Google Drive. The paid storage of iCloud and Google Drive is also hell lots of difference.

The fingerprint unlock system works really well, and I like the daily changing screen saver wall paper. It is beautiful and makes me relaxed and happy. (Yeah, I am not a tech gig, I like these small touches more than anything else) Reviews speak of poor night camera functions and that it is fragile if you dropped it. Thats why I am extra careful with it. As for photos, I am not a artist, I just need to keep the memory of what has happened, the effects of it, I can forgo...


 (Beautiful, isn't it? I like surprises, yesterday it was an Icy world)

I used to love apple interface, it is intuitive, but I believed those who convert from Apple will hardly miss iOS, given the price and will most probably not returned anymore. Those who used iMAC might have a tougher time switching.

I am so happy with the price that my wife also wanted a Mi Max 2, an older version but with bigger screen and lasting battery. It costs only $275, and comes with external storage option. We went Challenger to try out the phone. No one is playing with iPhone anymore. I am not sure if I am biased after the conversion or if it is a conincident. But the adults and kids are all trying Samsung and various phones.  

I also signed up for a FSM account and enjoyed reading some of the articles and finding up more about the performance of ETFs and funds. I have decide to expand my radar beyond local equities.  while I have no prior experience and will most probably have to pay some school fees as I learn how to invest overseas, I thought it is important that I diversified reasonably.

New toys, old love.

Happy New Year to all.

FY 2017 Sillyinvestor Inc Annual Report

Chairman statement:

Dear all, the theme for 2017 is to retreat when the market is good. There are various investment mistakes,  but we are glad they are not crippling. As mentioned in 1H report, we sold YZJ and Venture for 30% and 40% profits. They turned out to be a 2 baggers and 3 baggers respectively. We are yet again humbled by the market and acknowledge our lack of competency in using trailing stop to protect our profits. We apologized.

Yet, it’s not all doom and gloom. Our total portfolio size has increase from 85K to 106K. Last year we have vested capital of 42K worth 44K. As of today, we have 39K of vested capital worth 41K. We recently exited Lee metals at negligible profits, and hold cash. Total cash holding is 65K. 

It was a Bull year for STI, we could have done better, but will never throw prudence out of the windows.

Outlook:

 There were many reports about sustained rally in the market, driven by strong economic recovery and the US tax remake boast. 

The fact that we are holding 65% cash mean we see more risk than opportunity ahead. We could be wrong. If for no other compelling reasons, the fact that we are 9 years into this bull, we would think a pullback should be inevitable and happening soon, as valuations are hardly attractive at current level, although there are pockets of gems which we hope to exploit if it conincides with the general correction of market.

Operations review:

In the 2H of the year, we sold Lee metals, some of silverlake axis for a small profit, and bought M1 and Raffles Medical Group. 

Dividend collected for the whole year is $2170 as compared to $3849. 

However trading gain in 2017 was $4700 as compared to NIL in 2016. And we are please that unrealized profits for portfolio remain in the green for 5%.

Total returns on Assets in 2017 is 6.5%.

We expect lower returns in 2018.

CSR:

Beneficiaries added include Sian Chay Medical Insitution and Thöng Chai Medical Insitution. 

Company hope perhaps to do some direct volunteerism in some small ways in the year ahead. 

Random thoughts: Circle of competence

I realize despite more than a decade of investing, I am

Not sure of my circle of competence. 

There are several reasons for this, I list a few below:

1) I do not track my returns or loss through an excel sheet. I track my thoughts and returns through pening my thoughts in a blog post. 

2) I do not have a track record through Bear-bull-bear cycle. I think I went through a bear-bull market already somewhat. I should know my circle “soon enough” and I need not wait another decade. 

3) I am still searching for a coherent strategy. Those who found it, swear by it. Value investing, buy and hold, momentum trading, whatever. I know my best records come from “growth prospecting”, and its by investing in alpha companies through cyclical cycles. However, even such strategy has a lot of misses, in terms of selling too early and missing the property and banking upturn totally etc. Conviction is also lacking, when the price get beaten without any apparent news of earning downgrade etc. I do not dare to nimble on the way down if there is no news to confirm my thesis to be correct or wrong. 

There were many cases where there are clear growth drivers, and the price has run up somewhat, and I hold off buying only to continue see it head north. 

I am just talking about the strategy where I have a better track record. I have tried cyclical plays, turnarounds and asset plays before with rather poor records and I decide to let them “go”

Hence, I am better at determining circle of “incompetence” than competence.

As I prospect for earning recovery or growth, I have found nothing so far. The only investment idea I have is to buy into the aerospace recovery.

I only owned 2 lots of ST engineering and I intend to get more of it and some of SIA engineering over the next 12-18 months if the prices correct further.

From my calculation, the recent cyclical and structural woes of aerospace, especially in the area of MRO is hardly disruptive, it is caused by better design of new aircrafts than need longer periods before the aircrafts need maintenance and repair. And according to ex-CEO of ST-engineering, he already see it coming a decade ago and do not see it as disruptive. The trend will be cyclical and will be captured sooner or later with the increase of aircraft. The most intensive D checks (and also most costly from the perspective of airlines but most lucrative for MRO companies) of aircraft was 5 years in between checks and became 6 years in between checks. Reading SIA Engineering annual reports, the drastic fall in no. Of D checks was in year FY14/15. If u look backwards further, the bulk of D checks run consecutively for 2 years and will taper off. So the next upturn will be for FY 19/20 or 20/21.  That is 3-4 years away. In terms of PE and PER, current price of SIA Engineering is fair, but if one is willing to buy into the potential growth, the next 12-18 months will be a good Window to keep the eyes wide open. 

Of course, it is not just the D checks, the A checks and C checks number are also dwindling and it could be due to newer and better aircraft that need less frequent checks ( more fly hours before check) or due to competitions by other airlines also going into MRO business. 

The number of checks has a high correlation with revenue and profitability. My apologies, u can verify my info through looking at the annual reports, I am lazy to create excel sheets.

I do think SIA engineering is still keeping its competency and competitiveness intact judging by the recent years announcements of renewal of contracts and strategic alliances. The earnings might not yet show due to the cyclical nature.

Why am I sure of the “growth” and that it is going to be cyclical. Order books and deliveres are increasing, it is a matter of time these crafts need servicing.

The graph show the delivery of aircraft by Boeing and Airbus over the years

Then the airports around the world are expanding to meet this future demand. Just google airports with expansion plans. 

I think aviation growth is quite a no-brainer with our govt also placing big bets with Terminal 5 from 2026 onwards. That is a very long term projection ImHO. 

Remember when Buffett talk about investing, he said he believed in US economy and that it will continue to grow. So if u believe Singapore can still be a hub in aviation for years to come, it is not difficult to buy into Singapore Aviation.

U just need to buy 

ST engineering and SIA engineering 

SATS

SIA

4 companies and u have it all.

I just go for the upstream first. But I need to wait at least 24-26 months. Now that is really a boring wait.