My mind is in a state of flux.
I have researched Venture deeper, I will share my research soon. I really like to get it. But I keep persuading myself not to. I know we cannot timed the market. We should just buy a good company that is fairly valued with some margins of safety, regardless of the state of the market. A good company could buck the general market if the earnings are good. But I felt a meaningful correction is really overdue. US market is breaking historical records. Can stocks defied gravity? Also, I am starting to smell greed in the market. My own. Look at the forums and blogger sphere, I saw many new members, many pleased with their recent winning purchases. Nothing wrong with that, but many are either keeping away from analysis deliberately, or just shouting how great a company is. And again, people are lamenting about missing the boats, "can still buy?" etc.
I am aware market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent, I think the reverse is true, the market can defied gravity longer than you can endure and fall into the trap too.
How to keep my itchy fingers away? I think the few remainders work better in drowning out the chorus of "buy, buy, buy" in my head.
1) Cash is King. I am not actually holding a lot of cash. In fact, I am 80% vested. My emergency fund is not that big. A new mouth to feed, if any, would most probably eat into that.
2) I have not come out with a longer money plan that is ready for bull-bear-bull, or bear-bull-bear. I am not taking the dollar-average approach. Mathematically, if Market clash by half, your 1 dollar can buy 2 dollars of shares for 2 years, but you could be paying $1 for $1 for 2-3 years or even $1 for $1.5 for a few years too. Mathematically, if the subsequent bull do not return with a vengeance and hit a higher high (The last decade high is not breach yet) , your profits might be meagre in the longer run.
3) Market is due for a correction soon. Out of the several world cups in recent years, only 1 did not come with a period of consolidation, are we are at a market high going into July. The problem is, while I can convince myself that market will correct soon, Venture might not show price weakness.
4) There are other options, hold cash and build it up to 2017-2018, 10th year of bull run.
I am timing the market, yes. I no longer consider myself a value-investor. I think I am more a FA trader.