Recently, I have a lot of questions on my mind. I do not have answers to many of these.
I read recently on CW and SMOL thoughts about financial investments. SMOL think of himself as a swing trader with a horizon of 6-18 months when equities is concerned. Hmm.. My record of buying and selling is not too far off from that, in fact, I think I have a strong trading mentality. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but it kinda of clashes with what I have in mind.
I recently sold Sabana and Hpht. Both have a holding period of only 6-9 months. For both, some assumptions made are totally wrong, so I guess it's totally fine to switch out. Not much of a loss.
Then the next question, how often can we always get our assumptions right? When market turns, most assumptions will change. Valuation might change too. No such thing as intrinsic value that is static. Unless u are investing in a solid blue chip where u are comfortable about it business viability, do u dare to average down?
How much cash to hold for ammo? CW has a 3 M approach, of which he think mindset is most important, follow by money then method. I think all 3 are interlinked.
Most bloggers blog about methods, I have an inkling if we are in a bear correction mode, eg a 20% fall, most of us will have some losing counters in our portfolio, in a severe 40% bear, our portfolio would have plummeted. Does that make our method lesser? I do not think so, but I guess many beginner readers will think. Hmm.. He not that Zhun afterall. If we plan for bear, and super bull arrive, do we benefits? Are our investment plan really bull - bear inelastic? Meaning we might make paper losses but generally have a strong returns over a long term that beats inflation and leave some more? (5-7% annually) no need to be a straight line, but can we withstand the test of time, and test of discipline?
Lastly, I have my fair shot of stock picking, results is mixed at best. Although I might have spend a lot of time and effort researching, things still turn out wrong. Might get better with experience. But I realized the convention wisdom of always trust yourself and be misconstrued as dun trust others.
I always read postings at valuebuddies. I know of a few who are more analytical than me. If I know roughly their entry price, shouldn't I just follow if after checking, their analysis is sound? That would be more productive isn't it? I have not followed anyone in that manner yet. Preferring to find my own pot of gold. Maybe I will try a different method. Some researched by my own, some tagging along, having a money plan for bear and bull. (As mentioned by drizzit ) in one of its post. I find I do not wished to tag along because of ego more than because of convention wisdom. If we can buy funds and let someone manage our money, what's wrong with tagging of are sure of one capability. As long as you know nothing's bao Jia can Liao
P.S: for bloggers whose names are mentioned here, I hope I didn't infringe on your "copy" write. cW, drizzit and SMOL and valuebuddies forum links can all be found in the right side of this blog.