Thursday, October 16, 2014

Blood spilling?

No blood on the street, but obviously there are some "injured"counters that were not too far off my "willing price" recently. For fun sake, and also to keep my itchy fingers off, I decided to share what are some of the companies that are cheap if they fall further. I will haphazard a  cheap price to convince myself to do nothing now. So tempted to trade. Bad Sillyinvestor 

Disclaimer: I am just sharing freely, I may or may not buy when prices are met or even below my willing price. I am not afraid to let other know what I think, if on hindsight I turn out to be a fool, go ahead  and laugh, by all means. If I happen to be right, I am just lucky.

1) Low Keng Huat.

LKH is trading at trailing yield of almost 5%. I am sure, 2015 yield will not 5%. LKH has always been fair to shareholder and payout has been 30-50%. With the windfall from Paya Lebar Sq, there should give 1-2 cents special dividend. Dividend yield will be around 8% then.

Of course, one could say what is next? Since property cycle might be turning. But I did the Maths, just the recurring income from LKH should hit 3 cents EPS 

My calculations:

Westgate:

40% share of 305,000 sq ft. 
assume $6 psf/mth, 85% occupancy
7.5 mio per year

PL retail:

55% of 88200 sg ft NLA
assume $20 psf and 85% occupancy
=9.8 mio

Vietnam hotel operation: 6 mio per year.

So, if market re-rate LKH when the bounty dividend is given out, u can get both capital gain and dividend.

For it to be 5% yielding, willing price will be 60 cents 

2) golden Agri

Palm oil prices is breaking new low, how low can it get? Any lower, the refinery margins is going to be negative and that will send weaker players packing. 

Refinery margin is only about 1% now, iirc. Dyod

Will golden Agri survive this down cycle, I think so. Bio-Disesel will not be so attractive when oil price is low, but CPO as a edible oil is still the largest and cheapest supply of edible oil, although there are no lack of substitutes.

It is trading below 0.5 NAV now, and golden Agri has a cap of 30% of earning. If only they are willing to remove this cap, but I dun think so. 

Willing price: 40 cents, yield will be in a more respectable "pay u as you wait" range of 3%

3) sembcorp industries.

I worry about the turning of O&G cycle of Semb marine, but I do not think marine will be loss-making, given the market leader status. I would like 4% yield, which mean $4 would be attractive enough. In terms of PE, it will be around 10. Cheap. 

Ya, I  dreaming.

4) starhill global

Want to own Ngee Ann City and Wisma? I would like to, starhill has a spread out finacing schedule which I like. 

Given it is in a retail business, which is rather defensive, a 7% yield would provide MOS for a fall to 6% if interest rate does raise. Oh ya, it's gearing is one on the lowest in the s- reit universe.

Willing price 72 cents.

Ok good, now I can keep my itchy fingers off. Wanted to do some switching today. So tempted. 

11 comments:

  1. great plan....not dreaming. i think it might just come true!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LoL Paul,

      I no war chest, I fully vested. Assume tomorrow all counters are at my willing place, think I can hit 1 or at most 2 counters at most...

      Delete
  2. Follow your head and heart and go go go lol

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sembcorp industries 4.54, I'll fire one bullet first. If it fails at that level, it'll really reach your dream (nightmare) level LOL!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hmm... LOL.

      LP, I anyhow humthum $4, but got a magic 454 from u... Yea!!

      Go go with u LOL!!

      Delete
  4. Nice tickers, I am also watching 1, 3 and.. 3 ;) Not vested, but looking to dip my toes in the water if it starts to look nicer!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi GMGH,
    You are money honey is the same person right?

    Thank you for pointing out the typo...
    So starhill is the 3) :)
    Great minds think alike?
    I am not sure which one I will bite if serve on a platter... Assuming all at desirable price at the same time, mis prob will get Sembcorp industries ...
    How about u??
    But if sembcorp is at 4, I think the market really Lao Sai liao}

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Sillyinvestor,

    I am vested in both 1 and 2 and the targets that you indicated are indeed quite attractive. I will probably nibble a little even before they hit those prices. =)

    Let's see if STI breaks below 3150 and then 3000 in the coming weeks and months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi 15HWW,

      I rather STI dun go to 3000, I think 3150 will be breach soon

      Delete
  7. Seriously of those, maybe only 1) will be hit when STI go around 3100? The rest are too low la, when it reach there, can be quite scary too ... Rather no go there actually

    ReplyDelete