Saturday, June 25, 2016

Sabana REIT- Read beyond numbers ( Biased )

( no vested interest, divested early 2015)

Sabana has good discount to NAV and good yield, but look beyond numbers.

I have not seen management killing messengers. When rating company S&P reduced it credit rating, what did it do? It requested that credit rating to be withdrawn. It's loans are no longer rated and the reason given is it is unnecessary as rated or not, it's a 45% ceiling. 

Really? Then why do companies go for rating? To have a lower cost of borrowing! Just look at the terms of loans for LMIR before and after rating. If I am Kevin, I would give a proper explanation, perhaps assuring investors That loans from the shari' ah compliant loans are not rating sensitive. 

The only numbers u should look at for Sabana is now price. How much fall it would go before it become a fallen angel/ turnaround play? Beware of fallen devil though. 

Look at execution records, don't look at yield, ratios and determine buy decisions. 

Their disposal recently? Is it a good deal? I leave it to you, to see the bright spots. I do not need to search high and low for bright spots when A-reit announced its disposal.

Their ability to retain master-leases and their ability to manage their portfolio when it become multi-tenants leases, how long did they take to fill occupancy of acquisitions. 

Their high tech building Acquisition at 50% occupancy, I remember giving them the benefit of doubts of 2 quarters. I no longer follow their reports. U can find out the chai chee building occupancy, compare it with Asperia. 

Since I am not into turnaround or fallen angels play, I will give it a miss. I would think Silverlake looks more like a turnaround play. 

I dun like warlords that kill messagers. How about u? 

14 comments:

  1. think many newbies got dragged into this sabana of its high yield.

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  2. I was one of those newbies too. Still holding on to those 2 lots (heng, it was only 2 lots!) as a reminder of those inexperienced days.
    - Cel

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    1. Hi CEI,

      I think we are all inexperienced. I had my hall of shame stilling holding to... Even though i already wrote it off. - electromotive ?? Heard of it? It's just a few hundreds trial ... Lucky I never did anything more

      Delete
  3. Mmm... indeed this Reit went to 'hell'.

    Question is what is the worst case scenario for Sabana?

    Factor that in, you may derive your Upside/Downdown price.

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    1. Hi Anon,

      As I said, it could well be a turnaround play, if u know what is the price that even dogs will buy.

      I know AK made a lot of money from this when Aims Industrial went throu "rebirth" and no one believed that story ...

      But I passed... I know I can't or don't want to do it

      Delete
  4. Lol, I was also one of the newbies. Luckily I cut loss earlier. To be fair to them, they had requested for the rating to be withdrawn before the new rating was given...

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    1. Hi owq,

      Oh my bad. The timing however does not matter much. IMHO

      Delete
  5. sold out about 2 years ago when someone pointed out to me the small sponsor (ex-FreightLinks) and poor background of mgmt.

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    1. Hi Serendib,

      Small sponsor does not really matter unless u are thinking about rescue in terms of rights.

      It matters only on the Rights of refusal of pipeline but I know of several well
      Manage reits that seldom do sponsor related acquisitions but turn out well.

      Delete
  6. Hi SI,

    I even got this in IPO at 1.05! But I sold when their master lease first ran into problems. Enough is enough. That was way back in 2012, just sold at very slight profit from the dividends. Lucky didn't hold it for the yield. This is one of the poorly managed reit.

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    1. Hi LP!!!

      Hey, u blog a bit more lei, dun just keep helping pupils lei, make me feel I am not helping my pupils muahahahah !!!!

      U and I are very lucky Liao ... I think I break even too or make a loss, can't remembered ?? Think loss...even after dividends But I move on

      Delete
  7. SIAN! I bought 5 lots at $1.0859 and it is dropping like grapes!!! The consolation is I've earned $800 dividends BUT even with that, I will sell at a loss.....

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    1. Cherry!

      Nice to meet you here. U have an interesting blog. Loss is part and parcel of the game, although we shouldn't be too sanguine about losses lol

      Delete