It is not difficult to find what's wrong with swiber, MPM, etc. but personally, DYODD is more about self-accountability and comfort level rather than anything else.
I remembered MPM had a price surge when it first announced its foray into Rig, if u have exited then, MPM is still a profitable (perhaps very) for some. I didn't because I am not comfortable with the rig being built without a charterer. Does that mean I am a genius? No la, just that I am uncomfortable with that fact. Similarly, I thought oxley will blow itself up sooner or later, but it's properties keep selling like hot cakes and it's going places, and those overseas projects are also generally successful. But I am still uncomfortable, it's not about whether we are right or wrong, but how u think of its risk reward profile. And if can u forgive yourself if you are right and uncomfortable about the risk but went in nonetheless.
Cases of I am wrong about the companies earnings and still make money:
2) Gaoxian (exited when dual listed)
3) Venture (growth drivers did not come from 3D printing and Penang cost control ,rather it's from life sciences)
4) ST engineering ( AIMs and LSG did provide the growth, but offset by MRO)
Cases of being right about the companies' earnings but still lose money:
1) Lee metals
Then there is many cases of being right about the earnings but sold too early:
3) Silverlake axis
So all in all, I agree with B that "I told u so" is rather meaningless.
We need to get BOTH the earning forecast right, as well as the entry and exit right.
But the fun part is "reading the industry and management", equally fun as making money.