Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Random thoughts: be mindful of seeing the full picture.

Recently, I saw a lot of sponsored ads related to investment in Facebook. Some of my friends like the pages. Out of morbid curiosity, I look at the comment section of a online earning workshop that I know is just ......

I am surprised by the sheer number of people interested.

I hope with this post, people understand that I do not need to lie to mislead u. Just not telling you the full picture is enough.

I shall be upfront that portfolio returns (realised including dividends) or ROA for the last 3 years are 4 percent, 6 percent, 3 percent. Hardly beating any index or doing  any better than CPF SA

Let me give examples that how without lying, I can mislead u that I do have a winning strategy.

For example,

"Learn how to identify turnaround companies and do cyclical plays. Get returns of 30 to 50 percent within just a year or two or even months. Learn how by analysis of industry trends, company competitive edges allow SI to buy Venture, ST enginnering, Silverlake Axis, Yangzijiang near their low and profit immensely"

I did not lie about the above statement. What I did not tell u is I sold too early, and missed mutibaggers if i have sold them later.

"How to buy at a low of 40 cent and see silverlake balloon almost 50 percent within a few months. Learn how to read fianancial results and identified trends of imminent upturns"

I didn't lie about the above statement too. What I didn't tell u is my average price of purchase is Not 40 cents but 47.5 cents. Suddenly the returns isn't too sexy.

I also didn't tell u I got SIA ENGINEERING turnaround wrong. I also brought Sarine Tech at av. Price of 46 cents and sold it 40 cents to cut loss, only to see it fell to 36 cents and then rebound to above my purchase price.

”learn how to invest in industrial REIT And enjoy CAGR in excess of 10 percent every year for the last 5 years"

I also didn't tell u I calculate capital gains but I have no intention of selling so there is no way to unlock the value. I also didn't tell u I only have 2 lots of Ascendas REIT so it is not going to make a big difference to my overall portfolio returns.

I am quite sure I am not reaching the intended right audience with my post but it satisfies my desire to brag about nothingness and delusuonally still think that it is worthy cause for a post

The good question to ask is how your portfolio is doing as a whole and how long have your been keeping to this portfolio.

12 comments:

  1. Agreed. Some courses/workshops are recommending margin financing and emphasizing the crazy profits, but not on the crazy risk involved. Always two sides to a coin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WGM,

      Thanks for leaving a note. Yes. Personally I would Not do leverage for equity due to the volality of rquity as conpared to other assets.

      Hope no one get burn when the bull which is in its 12 years walk away for the bear

      Delete
  2. Illusion of wealth in the stock wealth is real! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sillyinvestor,

    Who would be interested in your financial well-being if they don't milk and fleece you while "guiding" you along?


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually Smol,

      There are genuine teachers out there. That's why I think people nees to know the difference.

      Genuine teachers teach risk first, and dub really expect loyalty. U find uT useful, u apply.

      Examples include quality forum like vakuebuddies etc.

      Also books, classic, ya, u oay for the book, that's about it. There is no Promise of bIG money.

      Then the next examination us within. U want fish or learn how to fish or both?

      Delete
  4. When some people don't tell you the full picture; can we see the full picture on our own?

    No?

    We need pokers to poke for better picture?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CW,

      No one can see the full picture. Just being mindful of that should be good enough for my humble opinin.

      But of course, we all need to get poke or experince it myself

      Delete
  5. Hi SI

    Investing in equities and catching the bottom sounds fantastic but is difficult to actualise. Hindsight analysis is perfect after all is said and done.

    No trainers will educate you the perils of partial execution, accumulating / selling of illiquid shares as well as prolonged periods of wondering whether the world is right and you are wrong in your analysis.

    Your post resonates with my investment experiences so far. Great post!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. INTJ,

      Seriously, if one is really interested in learning to invest. Read first, try with small money. Test your hypothesis. Join forum like valuebuddies and let your ideas get poked rightly or wrongly by others. Think...

      Then find your own style. Make more people, discuss. After a while, u will feel that u do not want to discuss anything anymore and have a plan and just want to see how it goes... Self monitoring

      Continue to invest, continue to read, and continue to apply all the ideas and theories into real contexts. Which company business situation fits into your investment story...

      Kept track of your stories and know what stories y can tell...

      Delete
  6. Hi Sillyinvestor,

    I have relatives who paid thousands for these financial training courses that lasted a few days only. This is a topic that gets me agitated.

    If MOE teachers and university professors charge the same hourly rate, parents no need to retire liao and students will become financial slaves paying back education loan for the rest of their life.

    One good quote I have read regarding financial training courses is this;


    If someone knows a way of making money, he's not going to spend his time trying to tell the world how to make the money.
    He's definitely going to spend most of his time making money ... unless YOU ARE HIS WAY OF MAKING MONEY.


    Source: http://i.imgur.com/q8d4kad.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hyom, no need to get agitated.
      We are all lunch for others before.
      I am a feeling many of these people are falling for the promise of quick profits because of greed.

      Having a small lesson might not be a bad idea.

      I believe in free lunch and altruistic people with kind intentions. But I have never seen these people bragging their skills and asking for exhortation.

      I am still deeply indeptin to a few forummers from valuebuddies who taught so much selflessly.

      Just ask, and honest answers are given and how various bloggers introduce me some books that are really a class of its own

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete