Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Portfolio update: 19 August

august port

All except Parkson Retail have reported Q3 earnings.

Quite a bit of changes.

Divested Golden agri, YZJ. YZJ has yield an return of 30% of capital and Golden Agri flat. I wanted a purer dividend play portfolio and golden agri didn't fit. I am glad I sold earlier.

Added:
China Merchant Pacific Holdings
Singapore Shipping
Venture
Parkson Asia Retail

All counters has a yield of at least 4%

Outlook:

Lee metals has 2 quarters of poor core earnings. It is fine with me. When I invested, I am ready for 2 cents dividends which I think is sustainable. 2014 has earnings boasted by AustVille, I believed, whole year dividends will match that of last year.

Venture has recover as expected, if trend continues, 50 cents dividends should be sustainable and also payout for FY 2014

APTT did very well after the tax settlement. I believed I overkilled in my earlier estimation of capex and loans utilized. I believe 8 cents dividends can be maintained till 2016.

As for Singapore Shipping and China Merchant Pacific Holdings, I bought for growth. Singapore Shipping will charter 2 new ships in 2014, and CMPH bought jiurui expressway. Details, please read valuebuddies. These two are my first copycat investment after doing my fact finding.

Possible actions for next 6 months.

I might sell 1 or 2 winners to hold cash to await more opportunities.

I am monitoring the following very closely

1) ST engineering
2) Low Keng Huat

Less closely, but in watchlist:
1) SIA engineering
2) Starhill Global Reit
3) Ascendas Industrial Reit

Cheers
Sillyinvestor

13 comments:

  1. Hi sillyinvestor,

    Would love to hear your thoughts on ST engineering. I bought a small stake very recently, and am watching closely for another opportunity to enter again. Based on TA of course. I'm interested after I've studied Starburst (that IPO) recently, so I thought it's a great industry to be in esp when I'm looking for something a little more defensive. Would love to hear your views on it :)

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  2. Hi LP,
    I just took a very preliminary look, and like you, like the defensive nature of the business. (GFC hardly affected the business), order book provide 2 years of visibility etc.

    Valuation and yield did not seem attractive at current level though, especially if I am not sure about the future group and the given that order book is at record high for 2 years in a row, when will reversion to mean set in,

    I need more digging before I take the plunge, but so far, the numbers and the falling price is making it flashing item in my radar

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  3. Hi sillyinvestor,

    Yea, it's not too attractive, but I intend to build a position on this, so I'll accumulate at key junctions. Thanks for sharing :)

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  4. Hmm... Cool ... I never really dare build core port ... Good luck and may u huat

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  5. SIA engg briefly touch a 52 week low at 4.52. What's your take on SIA Engineering?

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  6. Hi KSM,

    I did not dig deep into SIA engineering. It has better yield than ST engineering and is also a cash generating business.

    I still prefer ST as it is more diversified. SIA engineering seem to have a cost advantage over the aircraft manufacturers, otherwise, I never understand why Boeing or any manufacturing would not want an integrated business with their own MRO branch.

    The associates and JVs strategy of SIA engineering seem to be working well, but given the concentration of industry and availability of competitors ((ST engineering ) in Singapore, I am studying ST more closely now.

    But as I said, my knowledge is very preliminary. I might blog about these 2 companies nagter I do a more detailed studies.

    So, what is your take on the 2 companies? Any ideas what I should be aware of as I research them?

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  7. Difficult to compare apples and oranges. ST Eng is more diversified than SIA Engg with its strength in defence sector as recurring revenue. With the diversification the yields are lower as the risk is lower perhaps.
    SIA Engg has spread itself across several countries with various JVs. You might want to slice off ST Aerospace as the closest comparison. Btw, I initiated a long on SIA Engg today.

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  8. You are right. It's not an apple to apple comparison. I am not sure the yield spread between the two is justify by the perceived lower risk. Will need to read further

    Thanks for sharing...

    I know AK is also a shareholder of ST engineering ... Although I don't recall reading a blog about it from him

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  9. Hi mike,

    I am keeping a very close watch on ST engineering, might buy at certain key points on the charts.

    While you sold off golden agri, I am looking at collecting some $0.505. CPO price has really been beaten down, I was thinking of holding it with a long term horizon.

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  10. I was prospecting too. Looking at ST engineering sia engineering but the small buffer btween payout and FCF not making me very comfortable...

    Golden Agri ... If it goes to 45 cents the dividend yield will be more platable... I looking at it too ...

    But right now, they are facing planned curbs on forgein ownership in Indonesia, we might just get out wish of getting it cheap

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  11. Hi SI,

    Discovered your blog. Will be reading up your posts within these few days. It is always good to have fellow countryman to share and learn from each other.

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  12. Hi David,

    Thank you for your interest. Glancing through your blog. You must be qianbei!

    Will read up about your blogs. My friend is spearheading usana sales at china, she just opened up a shop there. U heard its brisk business because they are getting health conscious I do trust local brands.

    That is just 1 person. Not sure how the industry is though...

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    Replies
    1. Hi SI,

      I'm not qianbei. I'm still very new in investing. I only heard of value investing last year only. Started buying stock early last year with mainly in IPO. Serious investing and research started in Nov 2013. All the best.

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