Friday, January 30, 2015

Portfolio update

Here is my latest portfolio update:




Basically in the last 2 months, the only NEW addition is MIT.

I have however accumulate ST engineering, Sembcorp Industries, Lee Metals and Lippo Malls Reit.

I think I can still sleep well with these additions except Lippo Mall. I do think it is attractively valued, but I would like Lippomall to form a smaller part of my portfolio. I will readjust it when the price is right.

In fact, depending on the earning results, I might take some money off the table too.

I am heavily vested in Industrial Reit too. I am actually bullish on Industrial Reits. Ok, you might think I am bullshitting, but I like to buy when they are not at the peak of the cycle when everything look rosy. If you look at my previous analysis on MIT, I think Industrial property cycle is far from the peak, although I have no idea what is the bottom, and such investing style usually makes me swim deeper into the red.

I average down on Sembcorp and ST engineering. I like the diversity of their business when looking at them combined, you have SIngapore INc without banking

I also double Lee metals, granted the iron ore price is breaking new low quite frequently, I believed Q4 to turn in EPS of 1 cent. If my hypothesis is correct, then I think my base value of 4 cents EPS is a downcycle is safe. If profits fall more drastically or worse, Q4 become loss making, then I make a wrong call. I am expecting 1.5 cents to 2.5 cents dividends for its FY.

So, am I looking to add anything. I did look at Keppel When it went nearer to $8, but I think no need to see anything now la.

If anything, I will be selling some shares to locked in profits.

Will update more when the earning results are out, just super in a blogging mood. So 4 posts in a day! This must be my record!

Cheers,
Sillyinvestor

14 comments:

  1. Hi mike
    How long you plan to hold your portfolio?

    I have about 10% paper gain from my singtel n ocbc. Wonder should i continue to hold or just sell for profit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Yeh,

      It depends, each has a different buying reason.

      For SSC, I will definitely not sell until I see how they are going to pay out the dividends give the increase in income due to higher charter income from their new ships charters. If they increase their dividends, I will continue to hold as I see this as a dividend grower.
      If they do not, then I MIGHT take profits.

      As for venture, I believe the next 2 years to be clear sky where they can sustain their payout. So if at anytime I gain 3 years worth of dividends, I will take profits PROVIDED the hypothesis about the business remain intact.

      Just like Lee metals, I think if they can sustain 1 cent EPS per quarter, I will just hold.

      I feel like "trading" SCI, I will hold 1 lot regardless but might go in and out for the other.

      Delete
    2. Hi mike
      I dislike invest in smaller cap. Most probably i hit quite badly in my oxley. Dmx n also marco polo.

      3 counters lose about 10k losses. 25% of my entry price. U can take a look at my blog. I have a post about my portfolio.

      My blue chip still doing fine. I roughly do a calculation. I calculate based on 3.5% dividend. If everything do well. I can earn about 12 to 13k dividend per year.

      Not much. But i do feel happy liao.

      Just buy blue chip n I sleep well.

      So that is why I still do not sell my ocbc n singtel.

      Delete
    3. Hi Yeh, If u look at my portfolio, the best performing singapore shipping is not a big cap. So it really depends.

      Dun worry about it

      Delete
  2. Hi mike,

    Interesting portfolio! I also looking at Lee Metal, just want to check with you how did you get information on this stock? because I tried to find, there isn't much findings on this share

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I use AR from SGX, that's all. But I was researching on Sin Ghee Huat initially, it was a peer comparison that lead to lee metals

      Delete
  3. Hey Mike,

    This is great! We are on the same track although most of our stocks are different. Good gains earn till date! Its good that we can use your portfolio and my portfolio for a reference in buying stocks.

    Cheers!!!
    jfree

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL, jfree!

      It is really a stretch to call them
      Good gain.

      Think of it this way, if I have hoot 61000 on OCBC 5.1%, my returns will be higher than this.

      It is my learning portfolio, one which might never "graduate", but it's a application of knowledge, so as to learn first hand. No regrets in the pathetic returns.

      However, my prospecting mojo is lower and lower, might just for plain vanilla bonds, NCPS when I am sick on company prosepecting. I might also try some shorting as a hedge ???

      Anyway... 10 years in investing, one lesson that jumped at me is my limitation in investment prowess

      But difficult to find better investors in the bloggerphere

      Delete
  4. Sorry, typo error ... I mean not difficult to find better investors ...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi SI,
    Yes you are right that Lippo Mall is exception, I used to own lippo but divested all due to management doesn't care much about shareholder's value. Too oftenly they have right issue that causes u the dilemma whether to subscribe, if I am not wrong the value has dropped more than 50% from its IPO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi stock hunter,

      If I am not vested at all, would I have nibbled? I think my answer is yes.

      Like what I have told B, this is the first acquisition under Alvin, the new CEO, and it is clear he has a different style.

      1) it is not a rights issue to raise funds

      2) Less raised and less dilution than initially planned. Consideration shares price is fixed, etc.

      3) Kemang need no income support, and is the first integrated project.

      4) compare with pass rights, this is less dilutive too, taking into acc, placement, equity raising and consideration shares. You might say fund raising at below NAV or current price is value destroying, which I dun denied, but there is a price for everything, taking reduced distribution as a result of dilution already yield 8%, and we have currency weakness slapping indonesia. What else can go wrong? Many ...

      Then, jowodo managed to cut oil subsidy without making consumers suffer due to the low oil price. And Sing dollars is being rein in by MAS.

      I think I take a calculated risk in hope of breaking even.

      Delete
  6. Sorry, adjusted for right issue, the price has dropped 36.04% from its IPO. My apology.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Sillyinvestor

    How many stocks do you plan to hold in your portfolio and how do you decide how much to invest in each position?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the next 5-10 years, I think I will only managed 7-15 counters

      In the longer term, I do wish to have 20 counters with each only around 5% of my portolio and not more than 10%.

      Usually, I invest first trance of around 3k to 5k. Because I do joy want to accumulate and go way above 10k as that would breach 15% of my portfolio.

      Diversification is one important cosideration

      Delete