Lets do number crunching.
I want to know the impact of Kemang Village to distribution.
Before 17 December,
Distribution = 0.57 cents (Higher than projected)
Hence, 0.57cents * 2462648552 (no.of units)= $14037096
That is for 77 days, assume no seasonality effect within a quarter,
The second distribution, LMIR existing portfolio would contributed $2369899 for 13 days
Kemang Village will then be:
0.14 cents* (2462648552+117647000(equity shares placement entitled to distribution) minus $2369899
That is Kemang impact for 13 days. Do it for 30 days it will be
So the new 30 days distribution for enlarged portfolio going forward should be $19274335
Total enlarged base of units including consideration shares will be 2701802668 units
Going forward, the distribution would still be 0.713 cents.
If this is really the case, then Kemang will be accretive!
However, in its latest presentation, LMIR no longer break down the occupancy of the malls.
If you use simple proportionality logic and look at its operating numbers, without Kemang, the portfolio is HARDLY shrinking or growing.
However, the IDR impact might be more favourable going forward.
Finance expenses is reduced, if this is not volatile, it will be another plus for Alvin
So, any regrets trying to catch a falling knife?
I do not have, looking at the results, I think the new CEO passed his first acquisition test.
This is not a buy call.
My average price for LMIR even when I accumulate in recent weakness is still a high 41 cents, which means I have vested interest.
If my hypothesis is right,
LMIR is a steal when it fell to 30.5 cents (I didn't have such luck)
Fairly valued now at 35 cents.
Also highly unlikely to hit 41 cents in the short term.
But am I selling?
Nope, not at 35-36 cents, I might as well take dividends.
I might sell at higher than 36 cents if I see better alternatives, which I am monitoring now for a few, which I think is interesting.