Wednesday, February 11, 2015

LMIR: dissecting the latest Q4 numbers - updated

Lets do number crunching.

I want to know the impact of Kemang Village to distribution.

Before 17 December,

Distribution = 0.57 cents (Higher than projected)

Hence, 0.57cents * 2462648552 (no.of units)= $14037096

That is for 77 days, assume no seasonality effect within a quarter,

The second distribution, LMIR existing portfolio would contributed $2369899 for 13 days

Kemang Village will then be:

0.14 cents* (2462648552+117647000(equity shares placement entitled to distribution) minus $2369899

= $1242514

That is Kemang impact for 13 days. Do it for 30 days it will be

$2867340


So the new 30 days distribution for enlarged portfolio going forward should be $19274335

Total enlarged base of units including consideration shares will be 2701802668 units

Going forward, the distribution would still be 0.713 cents.

If this is really the case, then Kemang will be accretive!

However, in its latest presentation, LMIR no longer break down the occupancy of the malls.

If you use simple proportionality logic and look at its operating numbers, without Kemang, the portfolio is HARDLY shrinking or growing.

However, the IDR impact might be more favourable going forward.

Finance expenses is reduced, if this is not volatile, it will be another plus for Alvin

So, any regrets trying to catch a falling knife?

I do not have, looking at the results, I think the new CEO passed his first acquisition test.

Disclaimer:

This is not a buy call.

My average price for LMIR even when I accumulate in recent weakness is still a high 41 cents, which means I have vested interest.

If my hypothesis is right,

LMIR is a steal when it fell to 30.5 cents (I didn't have such luck)

Fairly valued now at 35 cents.

Also highly unlikely to hit 41 cents in the short term.

But am I selling?

Nope, not at 35-36 cents, I might as well take dividends.

I might sell at higher than 36 cents if I see better alternatives, which I am monitoring now for a few, which I think is interesting.


11 comments:

  1. Hi Sillyinvestor

    Hahhaa a day too early. They are going to announce results today. Will need you to crunch the numbers again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Huh B I am using the Results announced in the morning

      Delete
    2. Oops sorry my bad.

      Thought they were only going to announce after market close.

      Sorry bout that.

      Delete
    3. No worries B,

      But if you are really apologetic, maybe you can comment on its results and my trail of thoughts? Agree or disagree both welcomed.. LOL'

      Must ask, i shameless, please give generously LOL

      Delete
    4. Hi Sillyinvestor

      I have written my analysis on this on my blog. Please feel free to point out any mistakes.

      For yours, I found out 2 things.

      1.) advance distribution is 0.55 cents not 0.57 cents.
      2.) You may have disregard the rental reversion factor, which could be the reason why Kemang performance looks better

      Delete
    5. Thanks for the write up, always nice to read views of others

      Delete
  2. Hello SI,

    I am trying to wrap my head around your numbers and I have a weird gut feeling. From 1 Oct 2014 to 17 Dec 2014, the 77-day DPU was 0.57 cents, but with Kemang, the new 30-day DPU is 0.71 cents?

    Apologies, but I would appreciate some elaboration. Thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  3. 77 days are the holders of units before consideration shares and equity raising shares. This is the first distribution which already XD in December.

    17 december onwards, the 0.14 cents is inclusive on its orginal portfolio and Kemang but with the enlarged shares base of equity shares placement holders.

    0.14+0.57 =0,71

    Can?? Or still confusing?

    ReplyDelete
  4. "So the new 30 days distribution for enlarged portfolio going forward should be $19274335"

    Hmm, I was tripped by the above statement. Can explain how to get $19274335? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Kemang only contributed for 13 days.

    SO quarterised it, extrapolate into 30 days.

    However, from next quarter onwards, the consideration shares holder (Parent's subsidiary) will be entitled to dividends which they waived for this 13 days. So there will be some dilution due to distribution given to the enlarged base.

    $2867340 is only for Kemang for 30 days. We need to add the existing portfolio too.

    $14037096 is existing portfolio payout for 77 days. we bring it to 90 days and add Kemang contribution

    Can? Lucky I don't teach Maths LOL... Not very good at this

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thanks for the numbers SI,

    I'm still holding on this stock, no plan to exit yet.

    ReplyDelete