Thursday, February 12, 2015

Random thoughts: The noise

There is rather frequent reports of air accidents recently. I do not think anything is wrong with the aviation industry in the sense that I do not think anything is wrong with our roads. Not that it is perfect, but I think you get my drift.

So I was rather surprised when I was told not twice but thrice about people being apprehensive about air travel. 

I was surprised to hear that I might not get 20% of cohort to go overseas for immersion programme when in previous years, the demand is overwhelming. The reason: air accidents

My wife told me her colleague ask the P to be excused from overseas trip because she is worried about air accident?! Hmm... What makes she think the P will cancel the whole trip just to consider the recent spat of accidents 

Then I overhead my MiL saying about not air travelling. I couldn't help
Myself and smile, and say that I will be going to NAnjing with pupils soon. 

To think further, we also like to link news1 with 2 and make conclusion I out investing decisions, isn't it? When we should be looking at the valuation and the longer term viability of the business. Read Grexit, read plunging oil, and we might think a bear is coming, but the truth is, we will never know if it's a bull climbing a wall of worry or the frog is being cooked until we exited. If we exited with nice profits, we are buying high selling higher and the bull had climbed the wall of worry. If we wait till the cow comes home and the water is boiled and lament not exiting earlier, then we are the frog.

2 things count: your robust research and analysis of the long term attractiveness of the business and valuation. Valuation determine buy sell action 

8 comments:

  1. my DMX tech CEO and CFO have been arrested by police last few days:( share price dropping till i no eyes to see. paper loss 47%! luckily only 20 lot...

    well, sighz, all hard earned money.

    i buy based on valuation also...see, also free fall like no tomorrow....

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Yeh,

    Sorry to hear that. Lucky it's not a big part of the portfolio. But I know nothing about DMX to comment although I heard the news.

    Hope things get better if u are holding on

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well, just few hundred paper losses more to my portfolio.but also hard earned money la.

      Delete
    2. Yeh,

      I seriously think you need to see investment as a longer term equation and not just plus and minus currently...

      It is impossible to pick the right counters everytime, as long as net net we are doing ok, we are ok.

      Investing should not provoke too many strong emotions as I will cloud our thoughts.

      I believe your wins offset your losses since the STI is doing very well.

      Delete
    3. Aiya I just 发发牢骚la.

      Well after I lose 30 to 40k in subprime ( realised losses)

      i already numb and immune to any paper losses. But sometime when I in bad mood, or sad mood. I will complain a bit.

      I always never learn from my lesson. Last time burst in penny shares. I told myself not to buy any smaller cap and penny shares.

      now then I buy again and lose so much again.

      Really 活该。

      Delete
    4. Hi Yeh,

      We all have those moments of feeling %#>€^

      It's ok. Jia you. Your returns is just like mine too. U have a warchest so u are more ready than me

      Delete
  3. Hi SI,

    I think it's recency biased at work. The best way to do this is to read less news and watch less TV lol! The nature of their business is to report on newsworthy things, which happen to be air crashes and accidents. It will be a day to remember if the reporter says that today the sun rises from the east and sets in the West, there are not air crashes and all the planes landed safely and in one piece, though some are a little late. In other words, normalcy is seldom celebrated and followed.

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  4. LP,

    I thinks it's ok or even good to read more, but we need to be very clear about what we read might not be the full pictures and we are connecting the dots that might not form any pictures...

    But there is no need to chase after daily report of market reports and if u see how Bloomberg report the mood of market daily, you will
    Most probably have a good laugh

    ReplyDelete