Random thoughts: Kite flying at Valentine Day

 Kite flying could be done during Chong Yang, but we did it during valentine morning.

Was testing the DIY kite my son made. Kites will be what my class will be selling at Sentosa Flea market

Nice? Cannot really fly at my MIL condo compound.

My son and I have a good time running around though while my wife gave my the "my 2 kids" look. 

The spirit of kite flying, going outdoor with family is what I have in mind when I finally decide to sell kites. 

Just like investing. The toughest part is not actually the type of kite, but the area you are in, is it spacious enough? Is there tail wind? 

Even you have both, it is always tough at the beginning trying to get it off the ground to fly. Once up in the air, all you need is to tighten and release.

Our kite keep crashing to the ground. But if we do not lament the crashing, and try again, it is still quite fun, isn't it?

Although I am a bit worried about selling faulty kites, my wife told me it has nothing to do with the kites but our skills. 

Happy Valentine day, everyone!! 

I bought the most ex. Valentine present in my life and wife doesn't like it. Sigh... That's life. LOL. May you have better luck with your valentine

Random thoughts: The noise

There is rather frequent reports of air accidents recently. I do not think anything is wrong with the aviation industry in the sense that I do not think anything is wrong with our roads. Not that it is perfect, but I think you get my drift.

So I was rather surprised when I was told not twice but thrice about people being apprehensive about air travel. 

I was surprised to hear that I might not get 20% of cohort to go overseas for immersion programme when in previous years, the demand is overwhelming. The reason: air accidents

My wife told me her colleague ask the P to be excused from overseas trip because she is worried about air accident?! Hmm... What makes she think the P will cancel the whole trip just to consider the recent spat of accidents 

Then I overhead my MiL saying about not air travelling. I couldn't help

Myself and smile, and say that I will be going to NAnjing with pupils soon. 

To think further, we also like to link news1 with 2 and make conclusion I out investing decisions, isn't it? When we should be looking at the valuation and the longer term viability of the business. Read Grexit, read plunging oil, and we might think a bear is coming, but the truth is, we will never know if it's a bull climbing a wall of worry or the frog is being cooked until we exited. If we exited with nice profits, we are buying high selling higher and the bull had climbed the wall of worry. If we wait till the cow comes home and the water is boiled and lament not exiting earlier, then we are the frog.

2 things count: your robust research and analysis of the long term attractiveness of the business and valuation. Valuation determine buy sell action 

LMIR: dissecting the latest Q4 numbers - updated

Lets do number crunching.

I want to know the impact of Kemang Village to distribution.

Before 17 December,

Distribution = 0.57 cents (Higher than projected)

Hence, 0.57cents * 2462648552 (no.of units)= $14037096

That is for 77 days, assume no seasonality effect within a quarter,

The second distribution, LMIR existing portfolio would contributed $2369899 for 13 days

Kemang Village will then be:

0.14 cents* (2462648552+117647000(equity shares placement entitled to distribution) minus $2369899

= $1242514

That is Kemang impact for 13 days. Do it for 30 days it will be

$2867340


So the new 30 days distribution for enlarged portfolio going forward should be $19274335

Total enlarged base of units including consideration shares will be 2701802668 units

Going forward, the distribution would still be 0.713 cents.

If this is really the case, then Kemang will be accretive!

However, in its latest presentation, LMIR no longer break down the occupancy of the malls.

If you use simple proportionality logic and look at its operating numbers, without Kemang, the portfolio is HARDLY shrinking or growing.

However, the IDR impact might be more favourable going forward.

Finance expenses is reduced, if this is not volatile, it will be another plus for Alvin

So, any regrets trying to catch a falling knife?

I do not have, looking at the results, I think the new CEO passed his first acquisition test.

Disclaimer:

This is not a buy call.

My average price for LMIR even when I accumulate in recent weakness is still a high 41 cents, which means I have vested interest.

If my hypothesis is right,

LMIR is a steal when it fell to 30.5 cents (I didn't have such luck)

Fairly valued now at 35 cents.

Also highly unlikely to hit 41 cents in the short term.

But am I selling?

Nope, not at 35-36 cents, I might as well take dividends.

I might sell at higher than 36 cents if I see better alternatives, which I am monitoring now for a few, which I think is interesting.

A quick look at Ascendas Hospitality Trust

Note: Not vested.

A few things caught my attention.

The unwinding of the CCS is over (October), it is 8 months earlier than when they first projected it to be done by June 2015.

From the latest results, CCS costs is 3 mio, and 2.1 mio and 1.8 mio in Q2 and Q1. There is a acceleration in unwinding, yet DPU is increasing since Q1, despite further AUD currency weakness in Q3 compared to Q2.

Its operation in Australia (Biggest Contributor) is going from strength to strength since Q1

Occupancy rate is 78.5%; 84.3% to the latest quarter of 87.3%
Average room rate is $165; $162 to the latest  quarter of $184.

Lets annualized Q2 results (more conservative) without the effect of CCS instead, we would get
 (1.46 x 4 ) / 70, there would be a yield of 8.3%. Look pretty cool to me.

Assume a further 10% fall in AUD, resulting in a corresponding 10% fall in NPI. We get DPU of  4.6 cents just from Australia operations, and at Q3, Australia forms only 67% of total NPI.

At such, barring sudden and steep deterioration of hotel operations, we are looking at a yield of 7.5% to 8.3% for the next 2 years.

However AHT has several risks.

1) Its debts are rather concentrated over the next 3 years, from 2016 to 2018. Assume a 1.5% increase in the refinancing of 173 mio in 2016. It is going to make more than a dent to NPI since AHT is rather heavily geared.

2) If Tax exemption for overseas properties are not extended come March 2015, then its horrendous although I do not think it will be a issue.

Given I am already rather heavily vested at the moment, I will just keep my eyes open but hands away from this one. Unless, its shares prices continue to go down and LMIR continue to go up, I might then do some re-balancing and diversification while keeping the portfolio size intact.

 

Random thoughts: Excel in Sports CCA and Studies

The pursuit of academic excellence is always on going. I noticed something rather different between excellence in Sports CCA and Studies. I am speaking from my experience.

How do we win in Sports?

Besides innate abililty/ advantage, such as height in basketball and volleyball etc. The two crucial factors are: The right coach and the number of training.

Lets assume the pupils are motivated enough to train. 

There is only this much a coach can value add in terms of teaching methods. During my secondary school days, I learn volleyball from scratch, and I am a shortie, less than 1.6 m during secondary 1. I stupidly followed my "talent scouted" friend for additional training. My coach is kind enough to accept me into the training sessions. 

We trained 4 times a week, with each session stretching to 7 p.m., during the holiday leading up to the competition, we train 6 times a week, from morning till evening.

Practice makes perfect. We spar with seniors, we train and train. There is no real variety in training methods, just drills and drills, and physical training to increase our speed and power and etc. 

In the end, its the frequency that counts.

In teaching, we always share best practice. ICT lesson, experiential lesson, collaborative strategies. These are like the drills, and tools we used during sport training. Yes, different methods have varying effectiveness and some are more effective than others.

But it seems some are missing the forest for the trees, when the pursuit is in the type of teaching, rather than the teacher behind the teaching and the frequency of tool used. The most effective teacher and method might not be a fanciful lesson. It could be, but it need not be. 

Just a weekend thought.

Chill

SI

Random thoughts: What makes me "sianz"

Warning: Whining and LOW energy post.

It is not my busy work. Although waking up at 5.30 a.m. is very tiring, but I can endure, and I will find pocket of enjoyement.

It is not my difficult "clients", I usually try to see things from their perspectives and brush it off as "jianghu... Can't help it", "if it's easy I would not have a job"

What really is sapping is at the end of the day, I keep hearing people grumbles about their life, that they are very "down on luck", they salted vegetable life! Aiyo, really sad lei.

Those who have the most, always felt the least. 

Although I know it is just talking cork and gossiping, it actually really get on my nerves!! 

No worries, I know when to keep my mouth shut when three women are complaining about a maid. 

I have nothing against women. Just find it easier to work than listened to all these unappreciative, energy draining words.

Please, 惜福。不惜福，无福，惜福惜福，人人有福。

My excitement about Adsense approval took a 180 degree u-turn just hearing them lamenting about life for 15 minutes,

Like we are under Japanese occupation, life really that bad huh...

Sigh... Sorry!! Second day in a row liao, and is rather frequent. Really getting on my nerves. I need a outlet. WTF...

Random stories: Today's Tomorrow

Adapted from movie "the edge of tomorrow"

Cory is cursed. He wakes up every morning to the same old day. Today is the day he got promoted, and went home with news of promotion when his wife told him she is pregnant! This is what they always wanted... Until he did the most stupid thing when he saw a shooting star and said to the night sky that he wished every day is like this. 

Now, he lived this day for almost a month now, but the shooting star is the only thing didn't reappear. It is always the same old news, same old congratulation from colleagues.

Today was different though. His wife felt that his husband was not genuinely happy about the prenancy. She sulked and questioned him. "Whatever!! It's not like ... There is going to be a difference!" Cory retorted. "What do you mean!" The wife said in shock. Cory went to the bed, "just let me sleep, I had enough of this everyday!" His wife felt betrayed and hurted.

----------

Serene is really glad she found a new gift. She lied on the patient bed, her loved ones beside her. His husband hold her hand and choked with tears, "why? Why? Why is our time together so short?" She struggled as she said these words, as the respirator makes it difficult to be heard and also to speak:" Today is longer than you think. Do not be upset, I am ....." She choked in pain. Her parents ask her to stop and rest. She smiled. There is always tomorrow. "Don't worry... About me... I am at peace... I am

Happy" Her loved ones marvel at serene strength. The doctor has told them she cannot get past tonight. They felt ashamed it is Serene comforting her. Her dad is the first to smile, "yes, serene is right, let's us enjoy each others' company tonight."

Serene saw the shooting star again, she smiled and say:"Thank you, I am contented, even if tonight is the last night, I am ready."

She got her wish tonight... It was her last night, but Cory will have many more.....