Contrarian

How do u define contrarian investing?

The most popular is buy when market is low and when there is blood on the street. But it is such common knowledge that I doubt it can be called contrarian, since by definition, it is about going against popular wisdom.

Personally, being a contrarian would need one to be exposed to short term pain.

I would think there is no such thing as contrarian investing. Its simply about convinction, which I lack.

I have some success with companies that I bought when they are doing well and they continue to do well. I have also companies which I bought when faith in them is low. Both have their hits and misses, so the key is not about being contrarian for the sake of contrarian but convinction of own analysis.

With the reporting season coming to an end soon, I do like Singpost. Their parcel busines is scaling up nicely, most probably due to the feeding of business from.lazada.

Since new management comes online, they have been taking writeoff. While the warrant loss is a surprise, I would he more surprise if the cleaning up is not coming to an end soon with the new board already in place for sometime.

Its another stock at 5 years low.

However, I am.holding off buying anything

This continous bull run is really getting on my nerves and I feel myself losing the discipline to hold a warchest.

Anyway, I have 3 months before the next reporting window. Those who report bad results wouldn't run up anyway.

The other company playing out as it should is ST engineering, and I tempted to buy higher to chase higher.

Again, we will see how it goes.

Anyway, if we look at the 3 telcos local.market battle, M1 seem to be doing the best in terms of getting new subscribers. Another company that is at investor rubbish dump without TPG firing the first salvo.

Was hoping TPG show their cards quickly.

They will surely have cheaper deals in order to gain market shares. The question is how much? Unlikely it will be a grab Uber type of cut throat competition, but anything between what is offering by market now and how far it cuts is very important.

In short, as long as u have a style that doesn't waver, u are already a contrarian. This is not to say u cannot change your style or try new things. Its about a core that u believed works. Some of the bloggers have it. Some show that they have it.

And theIr short term results is not the determining criteria

Raondom thoughts: Over attachment to results

We all like good results.

Investors like growing earnings in the companies they invested in. As a teacher, I look for improvement too.

But recently, I have make a strong mental effort to be not emotionally excited or disappointed with results.

It helped me coped better. In fact, not only did the decoupling of expectation of results not cause a deterioration of motivation, it actually allowed me to push my pupils harder, without questioning myself so much.

When a staff talk to me about the stress of producing results, I am.not too sure why I suddenly retorted " I am sicked of results, just do your best for your kid"

I think I mean I am sick of attaching so much emotions to crossing of a particular arbitrary benchmark of results ...

I am very pleased that a pupil of mine has start to speak loudly and is able to quickly answer oral questions. She still fail, but I am already very pleased with her development. However, I know she is doing this to clear her exams and I hope she does.

I have extreme case for the other spectrum, pupil who did reasonably well during practices and is one of my better pupils but end up becoming the worst pupil in the exam. In the past, I will usually be very flustered, this time round, I simply speak with her, and ask her to try harder. I do what I can, I leave it to karma of mine and theirs to decide the final results.

So, what has worked? Actually, my boss always ask me what strategies to.improve results. I am quite sick of that question. She ask me why there are still failures, whereas my colleague walk to me and ask how I made a particular boy read and speak. They taught him in previous years and remember him as one who refuse to speak or read.

My answer is really simple, but never accepted. U can Ask me to think deeper, but I am stupid, so I can't find a better answer.

It's just 人盯人。 1 to 1 coaching and motivating. Encouraging them and giving them small successes. Then, Its practices after practices. When they are very sianz, talk to them. When they give u the "I want to give up face", u be around to remind them.to not give up without a fight. Most of the time, its a losing battle. Things like games, pie face game, piggyback on song, use of PC, flash cards, group work etc are things I do something to break the montonous of the teaching, because I know energy level is low and they are very bored too. But 80 percent of the time, they are practising questions after questions and I explain answers after answers. Sometime I crack a joke or 2, but those are time fillers, the icing on the cake, they are not the killer moves. I did ask many of my colleagues who are able to turn pupils around, I ask them what is their sauce very sincerely. I hear what they say, and see what they do, I dun think they are any far off in my approach. No fanciful stuff that u see in the internet.

I dun know how to be creative and innovative and do less learn more. I am happy with do more learn more.

So, if I am useless in showcasing the lastest flavor of the month, and slogans, I am truly sorry. I want my pupils to do well in examination and hence I focus on teaching to the test. I am not ashamed.

Random thoughts: First shot, SIA engineering

Initiated position:

Reasons:

1)Price at 5 year low
2)Yet, earning is improving.
3)Local earnings is weaker but SIA engineering strategy of forming joint ventures and alliances mean the earnings should be look at in totality.
4) Latest AR did not disclose number of D checks, but I believe the upswing should start next year, if they can keep their market share.
5) With ST engineering, I am buying into Singapore Aviation story, abeit its the support and service equation of the Aviation Story

Valuation in terms of yield is fair, as SIA engineering has always trade around 5% yield.

But personally, 5 percent yield at market peak and 5 percent yield at the tough of cyclical MRO cycle is different.

1 round of.ammo has 2 more shots. Which alerts will go off first?

Random thoughts: Different intelligences

I think most of us have heard of this in different forms. Some are musician, some more talented in sports, others in arts etc.

I always believed everyone can learn everything. But everyone has 1 or 2 intelligences that allow learning to take place at a exponential rate as compared to curve that pleateu off after a while.

I have this pupil, dilligent and driven. One that does all the work I assigned to the best of her abilities. She however has difficulty in oral conversation.

Sadly, it took me a really long time to realise what is wrong. I always thought she has a confidence problem. Because she could recognize the characters and answer questions on  vocabulary correctly, and even write reasonably.

I just realized she has problem generating  vocabulary and pronouncing it. She speak in anguish one day and say I know how to write that word.

When I ask her to record her response to question, she could do it reasonably well. I later realise she took a really long time to prepare and organize her thoughts at home. But when required to do it in a quick and impromptu manner, she fumbles.

However, she can draw really well.

Not just that, she really is quite brilliant in her on way. There is this chapter about 3 painters asked by their master to draw as many camels as possible.

One drew as many camels as possible, one used camel heads to represent camels and another drew mountain range and 3 camels followed by a fourth just emerging from the mountains. No prize guessing which is the best.

Without teaching the chapter, I asked my kids to draw as many fishes as possible. Some did what the first painter and a few did what the second painter did. Using dots to fill up the small piece of paper.

She drew a school of fish clustering together. Different schools, some showing the fishes clearly and others just dots. It gave the whole picture a sense of depth and almost three dimensional. She even drew the right deep water fish at the bottom of the page.

I knew she wanted to pass and do well very badly. But I am not sure if I can help her in her oral despite 1-1 practice everyday and reminding her what are the common vocabulary to be used ...

But alas...

Sometimes I wonder what else could be done to prevent inevitable...

Random thoughts: Pressure cooker advertisement

Which pressure cooker is the best?

Singapore made pressure cooker is the best. Fast, quick and keep rice smooth and mositured.

Popcorns, porridge, Tonic soup.
Cooker breaks it down, pop it out. Everything cookable.

So many modes for your pleasing.
So popular among locals and some say in Asia.

For advance cookers, u can even control the level of fluffyness and water content.

Warning:
Some.are confused with the many functions, wanted to cook rice and end up shedding tears churning porridge.

While the level of fluffyness and water content can be regulated to customize for each customer, customer are advised to adjust their expectations as the food depends as much as thh cook as well as the cooker.

Random thoughts: Of teaching and investing

Has been a while.

I felt I have been to the brink of depression and back. It felt different. The turning point was the Vesak Day 三步一拜 (3 steps 1 prayer) ritual, followed by a break of 5 days in June

Before:

1) Felt like quitting. Contemplating going private.
2) Harbour thoughts of self-harm, driving the car up to the one in front
3) Wish to be diagnosed with chronic illness so I can lie in hospital and do nothing (really choy choy and touch woods looking back now)
4) Felt it is a pain to enter the classroom even when I have the lesson properly planned and it was a new and special lesson. I usually will be very excited, but I just can't wait to get it over with.

Don't ask me why so serious. Beats me.

Now:

1) Told myself to just tell myself to accept the fact that I am the most lousy teacher. I ended up happier. I still did most of the things I did in last semester, but I can put on a smile doing it. I worry less about their results, since I told myself lousy teacher produce lousy results.

2) Told myself as lousy teacher, I shall chill more and take it easy. I "Bo Liao" with pupils more, talking about non-academic related stuff, even when I am doing oral practices, I veered off topics and joked and poked fun at their responses. I find their laughter therapeutic. I shall take care of myself first then them. As a lousy teacher, they happy, I happy can le, if they dun do well, too bad

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My idol in school, told me he is very disturbed when the school talks about joy of learning. He says he drill and drive the pupils too hard. It seems he is always on their toes.

I thought he is joking and I told him I look up to him in terms of his passion and drive. He told me he really felt it that way. I told him I define joy of learning differently, no sense of achievement, where is the joy. No achievement no ownership of learning. But i end up telling him I have decided to just keep reminding myself I am lousy, so I do what makes me happy and I dun bother myself with all these idealistic principles anymore. Those are for better teachers. I pass, I do it as it suits me.

Now, I dun feel like quitting anymore. Just a month ago, I gave a historical low of 4-5 out of 10 in terms of satisfaction in teaching. I had always gave 7-8. I am glad I felt 7-8 again.

Maybe it's a encouragement from the higher up, just last week, when I was at the canteen early in the morning to catch pupils who didn't complete their work properly, a lot of pupils crowd around me to talk to me, even though I was marking and talking rubbish to them at the same time. I might sound like a little kid than a teacher, but I felt really appreciated and "wanted". My friend told me I need to much affirmation as an adult. Well, I agree. Happiness is reality minus expectations. I have worked hard at improving reality, so now I will just try to lower expectations.

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As for investing, I must say I have been most lazy. Have not been actively prospecting for quite a while.

This time round, the plan is really simple.

I calculated the no. Of rounds I had, and the stages where I want to start firing. Then I just wait.

I remember how I wish I didn't bought more when I buy at 2900 and STI went to 2400 and I freeze.

I also know how I sold out a lot at 3200 and felt stupid when STI roars to almost 3600.

So, I just stagger my rounds using both cash and CPF.

First round should come soon if market break 3100 or any of my counters break 1 more resistance.

Next round will be when it goes down another  10% with CPF

Ever 10 percent drop, fire 1 round. After 2 rounds, firepower double from pistol to magnum. 5th and 6thround bring out the rifle.

By the fifth round sti should be near 2000

This time round, I will add overseas ETF to diversify.

Simple plan . The tough part is waiting.  Finger at trigger le. Just move a bit closer.

Advertorial: Save on car insurance prenium by up to 15%

This is Advertorial

This is the first time I am doing an advertorial because I believe it is a reasonably good deal. For those who drive, vouchinsurance get you cash back on your premium if you dun claim.  One could get up to 15% cashback on your insurance premium paid at the end of the policy year. I, for one, has not made a claim for the past 10 years, except for a windscreen change due to a flying pebble, and I hit my maximum 50% NCD for the last 6 years. I would think the savings would be rather meaningful had I come to know of this deal earlier. Also, Car insurance is compulsory, if it is a fixed cost as long as you drive, why not go for some savings?

So, how do we actually get 15%? (Details https://www.vouchinsurance.sg/how-it-works)

In a nutshell, the 3 insurance companies on Vouchinsurance platform will set aside 15% of your premium once you signed up and will place you in a pool of fellow drivers under this scheme. If no one makes a claim, you get 15%, if someone makes a claim, you get lesser. You can form your own community of drivers pool.

I checked with Yu Jun, Co-Founder and CEO of Vouch InsureTech, about the probability of 15% rebate, and this is his reply:

"There is a pretty good chance of getting the cashback because we do seem to be attracting the safe drivers even in our early days since our Feb launch. For our ~50 customers, the median NCD is 50%, and so far no accidents reported." 

My existing car insurance premium is $979 from SOMPO, which is also one of the three insurers with Vouch Insurance. I tried to get an online quotation and was granted one from NTUC rather in a hassle-free manner, and the quotation I got from NTUC is $992, so the quotation was rather competitive. The 15% cashback would amount to close to $150, which, if used to offset my next premium, would mean I heard the lowest possible quotation. By the way, you get back cash aka cheque, not an offset of the next insurance premium. Yes, I don't like lock-up, I am not stupid, so I genuinely feel the deal is a sincere one, albeit depending on luck (Those in your driver pool no having accident claims).     

If you refer to my promotion code you will get $25 discount, to be redeemed as cash after 60 days of policy is in forced. You can also refer your friends after you set up your own account. The referral process is really simple, there is a “share on facebook” and then paste your referral link.

Below is my link:

https://www.vouchinsurance.sg/?ref=SI-discount

I don’t know what you think, I think the deal is not too shabby. In case you are wondering, Vouchinsurance is also MAS approved.