Accordia Golf Trust: Is enough blood already shed?

Was alerted to this counter from AK 71 blog.

He did a quick 1-day trading, and made money. Power. I did a preliminary look at see if warrant further digging and its investment merits.

First, after the sharp fall from its IPO price, yield not including non-recurring item is now 8.4% 

Not bad. But Trusts yield higher than Reits to account for the volatility of business earnings.

Religare yield 9% for hospital properties.

HPHT yield 7.5% for port assets which many believed is at the lower end of the cyclical (Better time to invest) cycle.

APTT yield almost 10% because of the unknown risk of competition due to rezoning.

None of it is a apple to apple comparison. 

But if you ask yourself if you like to own ports, hospitals, cable broadcasting rights or golf courses, which one will you go for?

What I am trying to say is, the quality of assets of various trusts in Singapore is not of lower quality. So, the yield Accordia offered now is reasonable, but not exciting.

So, we need to know if there is high prospect of growth going forward.

1) Parent company and sponsor wanted to get rid of its remaining golf courses by March 2017.

http://www.accordiagolf.co.jp/file/pdf/enir_20140814165830.pdf

It will cost 40 billion yen, Trust has only 14 billion.

Trust has existing 45 billion loans. Gearing is about 35%, gearing will need to increase significantly, but trust has no limit for gearing.

It is quite obvious for the short term, the trust will act as a dumping ground for parents. What can catch a glimpse of the potential growth or lack of.

http://www.accordiagolf.co.jp/file/pdf/enir_20140812120932.pdf

It is obvious the 133 courses included those under the trust.

For its AR 2013,

revenue is

19.5 b for restaurant operations

7.8 b for membership (2014 forecast)

53.7 b for course revenue

Total Revenue is 80 Billion Yen

Assume 10% margin 8 Billion Yen

It is almost a 40% growth in 2 years!

But that is assuming the numbers remain in terms of pricing and visitors. 

Conclusion:

A company worth further study especially if there is more blood in the street.

But right now? No thank you, because the parents seem too eager to dumb assets.

Cheers,

Sillyinvestor

 

Random thoughts: Getting to terms with myself

In my work, we recently have our "sales results"

Mine is one of the poorest results, a drastic drop in QoQ results. I have not seen the rest, not sure if it is "general market weakness" or my poor execution.

I was demoralized, not sure how can I do sale pitch as a team leader, most probably my team will think that I am doing hot air again.

I wonder how long will I get pass this low point. Surprising, one night.

My strength of character again: I am shameless! LOL. Jokes aside, I think I really quite thick skin. But there are reframing taking place. 

Reframe 1:

I think of my clients instead of the sales generated by my clients. They are really nice people. I just have to work harder to make sure I do not short changed them further. I will just try to improve their "portfolio value". Also, I need to give myself more time, since I just know these clients for less than 10 weeks.

Reframe 2:

Look at the future. I think I can identify my faults, my lack of preparedness, I will not make the same mistakes

Reframe 3:

While it would be preferably be the case whereby the team leader has the strongest sale, given that I am already in this job, I cannot shunt away from this responsibility. When someone is ready, I will try to move aside. Now, I just have to continue to set the directions, and do whatever I need.

Also, although I am part of the sales team, I am also part of the strategic marketing team, I need to fulfilled my roles to my boss too. My poor sales should not stop me from being responsible to my other role. I believed I am still value-adding,

So, we always need to reframe our mindset so that we have a more quality life and I enjoyed my weekend.

Shameless, self-delusion? I do not deny, what is most important is not what others think of me,but how I can to terms to myself.

Have a great weekend, whatever is remaining.

Sillyinvestor

 

 

Random thoughts: What is the big deal? Seriously

I refer to the chartering of trains to national stadium.

I seriously think LTA and the MEDIA blow the issue out of proportion.

I didn't know we can chartered trains too, then.

But once I know it can be done, and there is no disruption to an essential public service, I agree with the media it is a no big deal and LTA probably over-reacted.

Then, I remembered the comments and views from straits times and Today, etc, mostly critical of LTA.

Hey, LTA just louder than it should, it is the regulator, what is the big deal again.

It made wonder if the writers to the media are alumni of the 2 schools. Is miscommunication or lack of between SMRT and LTA such a big deal to have days of reporting.

The core reason for such a situation I believe is: the desire for a punching bag everyone can identify.

Elite schools, elite acts? Great punching bag 1

Profit driven public transport operator? Great punching bag 2

Regulator caught sleeping or afraid of public sentiments? Great punching bag 3

All three punching bags together? Great! So easy to get everyone worked up and make the national news papers.

Pity the sports!

Straco: My thoughts on it buying Singapore Flyer

I think Straco has proven itself to be a cashcow with good business fundemental.

I also think Singapore Flyer is a good buy relative to cost, and also Singapore Flyer hold great potential.

However, I think upside is rather limited from here onwards.

Straco is a cash cow, It is increasing its dividends, and many believed it can be a grower with its acquisition.

While Flyer is a great tourist attraction, it is loss making and will not yield results in the near future.

So the attractiveness as a dividend grower is lost.

Current valuation based on yield is not attractive. Hence it is hardly a stalwart or dividend play 

It is not an asset play.

It is a grower play.

But as It is trying to do a turnaround, the grower theme has to change. It is a longer term play with risk involved with the timing of turning Flyer around, assume it is just a matter of when.

So,my take is, if you already owned it, especially if you owned it cheap, the piece of news is midlly positive.

But if you are entering with the correction, expect volatility. Valuation for grower play is always rich. It is a simple rule of market adjusting itself, IMHO

cheers,

Sillyinvestor 

 

Random thoughts: Barking the wrong tree

When you invest in a company, it is very good if the investor relations does a good job. But do you actually invest in a company because it give you regular updates weekly, tells you the business challenges and goals monthly, and reply your email within 24 hours?

You study the results and try to understand the business, through track records, comparison and perhaps understanding of key executives style. If you are one day pissed with the company, it will be the business plunder made, and forgiveness or lack of, will be decided by the corrective or lack of action made.

I don't care about the PR as much as I care about the Character of the business.

Maybe business do not need investors' engagement.

But spending so much time coming up with a plan to reply email, decorate the room for discussion, having action plans for??

I don't see how these in the end impact results?

Give me a ah beng worker who produce results and I will gladly help him clean his backside with fussy clients who want updates.

We forget, when there is a complaint, the person is worried about the profits and loss, not how one should reply.

Form above substance.

Give me ah Lian ah Bengs people who cannot speak PR language but work magic in their core business. Let me handle their PR.

Random thoughts: A trip to Suntec City

Make a family outing to Suntec City, mainly because my wife bought Anderson Ice cream through groupon.

It was a surprising nice experience for the family.

My in- laws saw the giant supermarket the minute we came out of the car park. They sell some unique bakery. We took a short walk and my son wanted to move somewhere else. So I tell them I will followed my son.

We went to the fortune fountain. It has more water points now. My son enjoyed the walk round the fountain and touching the water. My thoughts as I leave the fountain area. This is some simple joy only a kid would bring. I do not think my wife and I will go round the fountain on our own. LOL. Kids make you young.

My kid asked to go toys r us. When we reached level one, there is a rewind and relax event at the foyer. No need to buy anything. They have retro games like four stones, etc. my kid and I had fun. We also managed to get a balloon dog from a balloon sculpturer free.

At the new toys r us store, they have a moving dinosaur!! They have a claw catcher toy just beside the dinosaur models. My son is busy imagining himself catching a dinosaur. Remind me of a supermarket tactic of placing beers beside pampers, such that fathers felt stressed caring for babies will just pick a dozen beers. The beers sales did went up in that supermarket overseas.

I wondered: why is toys r us floor area not arranged in theme? Like adventure land- guns, dinosaurs, swords, and the likes. Stars galaxy etc, movie world etc... Maybe kids will then stay too long to play and it will be crowded and the paying adults will not pay anything. But my idea is, wouldn't there also be more impulse buying of toys that add to the overall experience?

Lunch at Aston signatures is so-so. The quality of food is uneven, some dished taste quite ok while my chicken and my son noodles are quite tasteless.

We took a walk, and there were many new boutique shops. Some are rather interesting. We already went to the alive museum few months back. But I thought I mention that destination. Quite fun.

The west atrium as they now call it, is no longer linked to the east atrium ( the convention hall area) as Suntec go through phase 3 of renovation. The level 3 shops are so much appealing now, brightly lit and spacious. It used to be dark and the only shop then that prosper is groupon collection center.

We finally found the new Anderson ice cream outlet. Lucky it is within the east atrium.

We were told we cannot dine inhouse as we are using coupon. I can guess the rationale. But the whole shop is empty, and given that we are also paying, it left a bad taste that groupon buyers are second class customers. Look, I can order coffee and tea and get a seat, that perhaps is what the management is thinking. But I think they underestimate consumers' preference for F&B experience.

Enjoying my shopping trip more now. When I look through the lens as a investor and a father. I am a dull boyfriend. My wife used to complained about her retail therapy experience with me. lOL

Random thoughts: What is the biggest achievement?

I was shown this video during one of the courses I attended, rather touching, but most importantly, thought invoking.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fRPpSYr220]

After reading Stephen Covey book, I realized I am very much a work-centered, family-centered and self-centered person.

Work achievement is easy for all to see, and compare, like the video, the reputation of the firm, your pay and your fame.

The next biggest achievement will be your son/ daughter is also a high achiever in his work life.

The comfort and love from the family is then portrayed as the most important.

It will be really nice, if my son brings me out when I am old.

I know my mindset will most probably changed as I aged, but now, I think I am contented to know my son is doing well and is able to look after himself.

Of course, it will be quite sad, if my son never returns to see me, or only see me during the festivals. But once a month dinner, is enough for me.

Lets just keep the memory and experience short and sweet when he returned.

Self-centeredness at work?  Perhaps.

I do not want myself to cling on any emotion comforts my son brings, it is nice, but my comfort might be his baggage.

I remembered when I am in secondary school, I always wanted a video game set. I went to my friend's place to play often. When my friend wanted to buy 3DO, (not sure anyone remembered it), it offered to sell me his old SEGA set. I am crazy over the strategy game- Romance of the Three Kingdoms III, and I could now get it! He asked me to offer a price. I said:" I don't have savings." He said:" come on, its yours for a hundred bucks, and you get all my games free." I really wanted it! All the savings I had was $70, and I offered it. Its a deal.

I enjoyed the game, enjoyed the set. But anxiety start to set in. My mum did not like me spending long hours in front of the TV. I only played after I finished my work, and after I help them with the household chores. I realized I could not have my kick of the game, I am constantly disturbed. I played in the middle of the night, got scolding.

During my NS days, my parents retired. When I come home, they treated me like King, I did not need to help out at my dad stall too, that free out a lot of time, I used part of my first back-paid allowance for NS, was a few thousands, first time in my life I got so much money on playstation set.

No one stopped me from playing. I remembered feeling so bliss just to be playing final fantasy.

So sorry, kinda of out of point. My point is: video game is like such a easy wish to be fulfilled, but when I get my hands on it at 19, after craving it for a decade, I totally enjoyed and appreciated it.

I like one thing that video brought about in me... Appreciation and letting go. So many times, I wanted it, and couldn't have it, so near yet so far. When my wife is pregnant, I stopped playing videos. My wife told me I could still do it. I say I do not like the feeling of playing something, enjoying it and missing it because I need to wash the next bottle. I do not like the feeling of clinging to something. If I cannot have something, I don't want it at the first place. If something I do not wish happens, like the buying of a car, I can only learn to make the best out of it.

So what is the best achievement?

For me, its satisfaction with myself. I know. I am self-centered. Maybe Grasshopppers has a big center that is centered around themselves.

Not that I do not want material successes, I wanted it! I wouldn't be investing if I do not hanker over them. But when one trainer ask me to visualize a perfect life. I seriously think, my perfect life is now, being contented.

When I need to share my vision of wonderful life with a partner, I told her, I am sorry, I really think all the things we vision is not happiness, but if you really like something tangible, I like to be popular with ladies, and with pretty women falling head over heels over a rich and handsome me. LOL