Random thoughts: I didn't get what I want... ...

 It might not be a bad thing.

Strange. 

I bought 2 poles (those for clothes drying), to be used as stands for a DIY volleyball net. 

However, my son and I break 2 of these stands/ poles in recent weeks as our spike hit the string too hard.

When I went to those "mama" neighborhood shops to get replacement again, I could not find those extendable poles anymore. So, I settle for the bathroom shower curtain poles that cost twice as much. 

I didn't really wanted to wait and shop around anymore as I was really busy and we have already arranged to play volleyball 2 days later.

When I set up the net, I realized the shower poles are made of solid metals and despite us "accidently" hitting the net strongly a few times again, it did not break. 

A good thing happen.

... ...

In my investing journey, I have wanted to FIRE at age 40-45.

I didn't get what I wanted. 

I wanted to have early retirement.

I realized the numbers didn't add up.

I hope to have a retirement that does not become a burden to others. So far, this last wish might still be possible, because if I am healthy, I hope to work as long as I can, as long as I can still contributed in my work.

However, Investing changed my perspectives on many things. I get exposed to ideas of behaviorism and biases, and applying the rules of investing are like training my temperaments, learning how to cope with fear and greed. 

If you ask me, if at the end of the day, if my net net gains in investing is a net zero, I would still say it is a wonderful journey.

... ...

In my work, I have wanted to climb the coporate ladder.

When I took a back seat, I have to cope with some inner demons and ego issues.

There were quite a few occasions I felt "useless" and blame myself for throwing in the towel. 

Now, I am having hell of a time. Every morning, I played volleyball, or rather coach it to pupils with passion and hunger to win. While I am mindful that my secondary school way of training is outdated, with hard drills and a lot of yelling, I sometimes cannot help myself. But the players still come for these "optional" and "extra" trainings, and sometimes when I got ready at 6.40 a.m. Some of them are already waiting for me.

Many chastise me for being "glory" or "Results" hungry, I think they missed the point, and it is sad coming from a PE middle manager. It is not about being the champion, it is the hunger for improvement and success that perks me up, and I look forward to those sessions everyday. 

I also have plenty of time free up to make lesson interesting for my pupils, even those not in my school

I arrange for a role-playings during lessons, and pupils actually "cook" in class. One of my pupil had to miss my lesson to go see the dental, and he shouted:" Again?" That he wanted so much to stay in my class to carry out the activities I planned really made my day. 

I also create escape room games for my pupils and organized a nation-wide competition just for Foundation Stream pupils, which I believed is the first such national competition for "weak" pupils. Last year, a few teachers text me after the event, and thanks me for organizing such a event for this group of pupils, who do not have much self-confidence. Although there were some glitches last year, and this year, less schools participated, I am still happy that I now work to fulfill my own vision of what education should be. 

......

Sorry that this post sound like self-trumpeting in the end. Perhaps it is those self-encouraging posts. 

  

Random thoughts: FIRE for 2 weeks.

For the past 2 weeks, life is like retirement. Since a long time, my mind is totally free from work, and the last 2 weeks is Netflix, Games, volleyball, reading and some investing prospecting 

It is kind of like achieving FIRE 🔥

But I am actually looking forward to go back to work. I know when the time comes, I will feel "Sian" and as the grinding starts, fatigue will makes me a grumpy person again

Yet, I am kind of happy that I no longer fears work, and I actually looking forward to know new pupils, I will be teaching a younger level of pupils next year. 

Because of Covid, there is also no big overseas trip to plan, and I can really "Nuan" at home.

It is a time of classics, I start watching "Naruto" with my son, "Lucifer" with my wife. With the me time afforded, I read old titles like "the best I could", "is easy to cry". Those are really nice books/ biographies.

Covid has changed me. It brought me the hermit in me. I have turned down several invitations to meet up. The funny thing is, I dun really feel "lonely" or "upset".

Spending time with my son, and my wife, and myself seems good enough. Maybe at my future funeral wake, my family members can't find visitors for me, but we'll, it would not bothers me then.

There were several occasions where I have heart to heart chat over the WhatsApp with ex-pupil, parents, and I find those conversations insightful and many a times, quite deep sharings. Somehow, I prefer those unreal virtual sharings than a crowded meal with superficial talks or reminiscing the "past"

Sadly, perhaps, I didn't really have close friends to begin with, and this Covid Pandemic just exposed the sad truth. But well, I wish to call myself a loner since my college days, so I guess it is subconscious awareness. Luckily, the fact didn't overwhelmed me with sad pity.

Random thoughts: These stocks will likely increase their dividends in FY 2021

NOTE: 

I owned shares of the below mentioned counters, and hence have my biases and ulterior motives for writing this post (Evil laughs) 

1) UOBKayhian

• 1H earning beats 2020 earnings. UOBkayhian biggest earning segment is trading commission. 

• SGX trading volume and value for the last 11 months beats 2020 (11 months)

• US market is seeing new high, Thailand trading volume and value for the last 11 months are also significantly higher than 2020.

• If the 50% payout holds (which is the case for many years), there is a high probability that dividends will exceed last year 9.5 cents. (1H EPS is already 11 cents.)

2) Hotung 

• 2020 EPS is 5.42 NT$, and 1H 2021 EPS is already 3.28NT$

• 2021 there is frequent share buybacks, and this is NOT a yearly occurernce

• 2021 there are 2 vested companies of Hotung that are listed. (None in 2020)

• 2021 NTS$ has strengthen against SGD as compared to 2020

3) ComfortDelgro

• DPS in 2021 already exceeded 2020

• QOQ deterioration of earnings is not unexpected due to Heightened alert

• Q4 results should bounce back.

4) YZJ 

• Please read the wonderful article by Squirrel Drey. (One of the best analysis by bloggers for a while)

• As rightly pointed out, steel cost has come down, and with record order book, margins should recovers.

• Management has said the newer contracts has accounted for possible higher costs, and if the steel costs continue to be low, the mix of good and poor margins of contracts would enable better earnings

• Main reason for increase is expectation of special dividends due to spin off of investment business

5) Lung Kee (0255 HK, dual listed in SG )

•  1H 2021 EPS already grown more than 70%

• However Lung Kee did not have a fixed Payout Ratio (Although it is consistently high in the last 4 years)

6) OLAM 

• Record operational earnings in 1H

• Intern Dividends already increased

• Inflationary environment favours the agri-commodity sector

Conclusion:

It is important to note that the above POSSIBLE dividends increase did not take into account any price increase that has already taken place. However, most of the price increase with the exception of Lung Kee, seems modest. 

Random thoughts: SillyINC Streaming Channels

Silly Inc has a new subsidiary. It is venturing into live streaming channels. Competition is stiff, but SillyInc believed it has a several orginal titles that are going to be a hit, and give other streaming platforms a run of their money. Here are the trailers and introductions of the productions that took place in 2020/21

Sad soap operas:

1) DiaryFarm goats could not be milked

The story takes place in the early 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic is wrecking havoc and panic in every corner of the globe. The virus caused mutations in some people's brains, and they turned into Covidiots, a state some said are worse than Zombies, because they are actually still living.

The Covidiots cleared supermarkets of food, toilet papers and whatever they can lay their hands on. The opportunists saw runaway demands in the supermarket businesses. 

However, sadly, some of the goats in Yonghui China cannot bear milk, and where others supermarket chains are roaring with businesses and rewarded their staff with 16 months bonus, the opportunists got burnt in the market. 

2) E.S.R and green is red

The climate change has gather renewed impetus among the political elites and also the investing community. The corporate story began in China, where and listed Company known as TianNeng Power captured the imagination of a silly investor. The company boarded the E.S.R bandwagon, it produce batteries for electric bicycles and mini-vehicles, and spins off the battery producing company in STAR exchange of ShenZhen, and keep the parent company for recycling and trading of renewable materials.

Green is the future, and the silly investor thought his portfolio will be green too, with the addition of this future proof company. Every time the company exhibited price weakness, the silly investor accumulated the stock, believing that he knows better than the market. Will the story of David and Goliath be replayed, or will the market wipes out the confidence of the main character, silly investor? 

Thrillers:

1) Alibaba and the Magic Carpet that flies in only one direction-Down

This 2021 Remake of the Alibaba Story is not without controversy. Alibaba is a well-known character who beats the odds, outwits the 40 bandits, the Genie. 

The 2021 Alibaba show is a collaboration with the Marvel Studio, and Alibaba partners Ant Man in his adventures. It is a bold remake and meshing of Hollywood and CCTV.

However, when many thought that the duo would be invincible, Ant Man got crushed when he transformed himself into a Giant, and is crushed by another Giant Wheel. No one even saw it coming, Ant Man is a 23 billion foot Giant and when it is crushed, all one can see is a axis rolled over Ant Man! Alibaba discovered to his dismay, that he might he have accidently utter the ancient words that unleash the Heavenly Axis. 

As the Giant Axis destroyed everything in the path of Alibaba and came towards Alibaba, Alibaba hops on to his Magic Carpet and dives into the deepest Valleys to avoid the crush of the Giant Axis.

Will Alibaba ever raise to see the light again, will Ant Man survives? Stay tuned to Silly Inv Streaming.. …

Comedies:

1) Hotung 

Hotung is a Hot Taiwanese Chic who came to work in Singapore. She is a filial daughter who gave money regularly to her parents, yes! Parents. She has daddy issues and do a lot of freelance works, some years she earn more and some years she earn less. 

When Covid struck, and many projects dried up, many of her supposedly "parents" dumped her, thinking she will no longer be the money tree. Yet, instead of dying, she thrives with her technological projects as hot as her looks... 

2) Ho Say Bo? Calvin 

At the height of the Pandemic, Calvin company went into troubles, or it seems. It has problems paying dividends to the shareholders and disgruntled shareholders whistle blow and spread rumors that Calvin have helped moved illicit funds. 

The seemingly distressed Calvin is however, a master tactician, who has everything under control. Ho Say Bo? Calvin? appeals to the dialect speaking region, and the humorous yet cunning Calvin always replied Bo Ho Say, who is the greater fool?

Romance:  

1) Yangzi and Ah long

The story of kawaii Japanese Jiu Jing Yang Zi who worked in a shipyard. The flower of the dock had a husband who is a "Ah Long", high interest creditor.

Contrary to convention wisdom, despite the many naysayers and objections, they have built on each other strength and loved each other. They overcome many obstacles, yet, just when Yangzi is doing very well in his company, rumors has it that they are planning to divorce. Yang Zi has confirmed that the rumors are true, but "Ah Long" is still not sure how the parted couple are going to be in their separate ways. Will they have a chance together again? The truth is, there are many suitors going after YangZi and Ah Long has also found a tai-tai that said she could help him expand his credit business. 

Is money always the cause of the end of love?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Silly Inc hope the highlights of the shows have got you intrigued. Do leave a comment or a rating after you have subscribed and seen the show. 

Random Stories: The Christmas Tree

There lived this poor boy, who always passes the gift shop on his way to help his hawker father to clean up his stall. His parents worked hard to provide for him and his siblings. He never had to go hungry or endure the cold. Yet, whenever he passed the shop, he would looked at the Christmas Tree with envy.

From the display windows, he would see images of his classmates, celebrating Christmas, exchanging Christmas gifts, and the adults bringing out the feast for the children. 

Christmas, was just like any other days for him. It was just busier than usual at the Hawker Center. He will have to help his father with the business. He would spent the night washing the dishes and serving the customers. Somedays, he would see his classmates on their way to their Christmas Party. They would ask if he would be joining them later, and he would always replied:" I might, if business is good, and we clean up the stall earlier." Yet, he would never join them, he did not know how to ask his dad for money to buy the gift for exchange. 

He worked hard, and graduated from university. He made a decent a living, and his aged parents retired. He could now enjoy all the indulges that he could not afford in the past.

One day, he decided to buy a Christmas Tree, and invited his friends over to his house. He played music, was a good host to his guest, and serve his friends with the best food he could find. He thoroughly enjoyed himself, and felt he had arrived.

A few years has passed, he found the Christmas Tree a nuisance.  

It was difficult to fit the Christmas tree back into the box after Christmas celebration was over. And the Christmas Tree would have to be replaced after 2 years of use, otherwise the Christmas tree would not look nice.

He also found shopping for the decorations for the Christmas Tree a nuisance and no longer enjoyable

He started to wonder why Christmas Tree always look so pretty in the display windows and not in the house. His neighbor suggested that there are different sizes and models of Christmas Tree, and it is an Art to choose the type of decoration for the Christmas Tree. 

One day, he decided to pay a visit to his parents. His parents have continued to lived in the older estates. He saw 4 kids playing at the playground. 

They are stacking up rocks and stones, and planting twigs between the cracks. They sang Christmas Songs and hug one another. 

He suddenly felt a wave of intense emotions cruising through his whole body, and he could not describe what it is. 

He went to a nearby shop, bought some snacks. He went to the kids, and said:" Merry Christmas, what a beautiful Christmas Tree!" He took a photo of it with the kids and pass them the snacks.  

 

Random thoughts: Touching Thank you cards

 Ok... This is a self-cheering type of post. 

Not too long ago, I was busy preparing pupils for PSLE, and I requested my pupils to send me their Oral recording. Many of them needed reminders.

So I did this:

During the last day of school, I received this

It just brought a smile to my face. They do appreciate our efforts.

There is also this very dreamy girl, always drifting off or doodling in her book. She did this for me.

She is so talented isn't it? But when I am teaching, and see doodles in her work, I am not sure to laugh to cry. But true to her style. She also dreams or doze off when doing this card. 

 

Hahahahha... Funny hor... The little joys in teaching

Random thoughts: Keppel lost the battle but won the war,?

Keppel was out bid by Cuscaden in SPH offer.

I am happy for that. Personally, there is some synergy with the reminding stake of M1 from SPH that comes with the deal beyond property 

Given that the bidding is at PB 1, I dun see why Keppel cannot bid for other companies that are trending at much lower valuation,.

HK land is at 0.4 PB, capitaland before restructing at 0.8, and City Dev also below 1. 

I do understand SPH properties are mostly investment properties and the capital-intensive part of the business is the part of the business that affect valuation, and the REITing SPH properties would have gotten most of the money back, but that is if the REIT properties can fetch valuation above 1, to worth the battle playing out now. Ascendas and MIT is at around 1.1 and 1.2 PB, I can't see the scale and scope of SpH properties to guaranteed them commanding a premium valuation. 

My reactions was "Yes,! Just walk away please, not like u dun have the scale to grow organically or there are no better properties to be bought, if u cannot buy cheap, dun buy."

I am mindful my opinions are usually not mainstream, you can have your differing views