Random movie review: Dracula untold

A long time since  a movie truly pleases.

Most of the time, I walk off with the "ok la" thoughts.

More thoughts can be put into the ending and the deal with devil.

But for 90 minutes, the twists come first and furious, and cleverly thought out.

A prince seek devil strength to save his people.

A bloodless merciless and emotionless warrior impaled a whole village to save 9 others village so that they surrender without a fight. ( I already read this from a comic, but nice try)

Get the devil strength as a gift, not a curse? Just refrain and control the thirst for blood for three days, and revert back to human, and the force of light wins. What a gift?

With the vampire thirst and strength, pray to God for strength to suppressed the urge for blood?

Put the human spirit into the gambit of erternal abyss if lost, in order to save its people and family, only to be scared by his own people who attempted to burn him alive.

The force that finally push him to the dark son just before the dawn of third day is the love for his dying wife. (Nope, his wife still die)

Heard that when bitten by vampire, u turn into vampire? No such things here. U turn into a vampire when u willingly take vampire blood.

I like it. With its story flaws, it is still a great show. Definitely better than the overly hyped hobit. 

Blood spilling?

No blood on the street, but obviously there are some "injured"counters that were not too far off my "willing price" recently. For fun sake, and also to keep my itchy fingers off, I decided to share what are some of the companies that are cheap if they fall further. I will haphazard a  cheap price to convince myself to do nothing now. So tempted to trade. Bad Sillyinvestor 

Disclaimer: I am just sharing freely, I may or may not buy when prices are met or even below my willing price. I am not afraid to let other know what I think, if on hindsight I turn out to be a fool, go ahead  and laugh, by all means. If I happen to be right, I am just lucky.

1) Low Keng Huat.

LKH is trading at trailing yield of almost 5%. I am sure, 2015 yield will not 5%. LKH has always been fair to shareholder and payout has been 30-50%. With the windfall from Paya Lebar Sq, there should give 1-2 cents special dividend. Dividend yield will be around 8% then.

Of course, one could say what is next? Since property cycle might be turning. But I did the Maths, just the recurring income from LKH should hit 3 cents EPS 

My calculations:

Westgate:

40% share of 305,000 sq ft. 
assume $6 psf/mth, 85% occupancy
7.5 mio per year

PL retail:

55% of 88200 sg ft NLA
assume $20 psf and 85% occupancy
=9.8 mio

Vietnam hotel operation: 6 mio per year.

So, if market re-rate LKH when the bounty dividend is given out, u can get both capital gain and dividend.

For it to be 5% yielding, willing price will be 60 cents 

2) golden Agri

Palm oil prices is breaking new low, how low can it get? Any lower, the refinery margins is going to be negative and that will send weaker players packing. 

Refinery margin is only about 1% now, iirc. Dyod

Will golden Agri survive this down cycle, I think so. Bio-Disesel will not be so attractive when oil price is low, but CPO as a edible oil is still the largest and cheapest supply of edible oil, although there are no lack of substitutes.

It is trading below 0.5 NAV now, and golden Agri has a cap of 30% of earning. If only they are willing to remove this cap, but I dun think so. 

Willing price: 40 cents, yield will be in a more respectable "pay u as you wait" range of 3%

3) sembcorp industries.

I worry about the turning of O&G cycle of Semb marine, but I do not think marine will be loss-making, given the market leader status. I would like 4% yield, which mean $4 would be attractive enough. In terms of PE, it will be around 10. Cheap. 

Ya, I  dreaming.

4) starhill global

Want to own Ngee Ann City and Wisma? I would like to, starhill has a spread out finacing schedule which I like. 

Given it is in a retail business, which is rather defensive, a 7% yield would provide MOS for a fall to 6% if interest rate does raise. Oh ya, it's gearing is one on the lowest in the s- reit universe.

Willing price 72 cents.

Ok good, now I can keep my itchy fingers off. Wanted to do some switching today. So tempted. 

Sembcorp industries Part 1

Trying to consolidate my thoughts here.

Sembcorp is a cash generating net cash company, with positive FCF 11 out of the 15 years record that I tracked.

I am particularly interested in the utilities segment, as I see it as both a cash cow and a growth sector.

Since its inception in 2001, it has almost an unbroken track record of growing EBIT (I used this for consistency with earlier 2001-2002 data). While I still cannot not ascertain how much of the revenue is recurring, but I know recurring income form a portion of it, otherwise, it is unlikely that Hyflux is burning cash, and Sembcorp with also its water business, is generating cash. Note also that 2013 UK operations is making a loss of 52 mio, but earnings before tax and minority interest still grows.

It also has a good pipeline of projects:

(Source: 2013 AR)

Utility has taken over marine as the top contributor, and the Urban Development segment, while doing well in Vietnam with hugh landbank is too small to make a big contribution.

Valuation wise, it is very decent. 

Using DCF with FCF assumption of 500 mio, At current prices, it is trading at 3% growth rate, and 8% discount rate with 20% MOS. Believe the assumption is quite conservative. In term of PE, it is trading at PE 12-13, not demanding too. 

It seems rather clear sky over the next few years, with the marine segment also having a strong order book.

Only one bug bear.

Dividend yield, I am OK with around a 4% yield for a good blue chip for long term growth. However, I suspect Marine might be the spoiler in years to come.

I am very apprehensive about the oil and gas sector. I will need to dig more before I decide what to do. I believe many think the O&G is a evergreen sector, it is not, it is cyclical. And I think we are closer to the peak than to the bottom. Why?

(Source: http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm)

Seem like the rig business is having a party for a decade.

High Prices attract more supply. As seen in all cycles 

While the fleet net gain has been falling, it looks like the high oil prices in the 2000s has generate 6-7 years of good net gains, and if Keppel and Sembmarine order book is anything to go by, the newbuild deliveries are not falling off the chart too.

Rate is holding up though,which is good news, meaning there is no serious over supply yet?

Source of pictures: http://www.ihs.com/pdfs/Jackup-Rig-Market-Report.pdf

Please click on the report to read more, although the report is old, but it seem provide some good insights for me. 

I am not industry expert, I just told myself it is better to buy survivors in down cycles than winners in up cycles, there is why I bought YZJ when BDI collapse, many shipbuilders collapsing, meaning rate is so low that it is squeezing out players, I know we are nearer to the bottom than anywhere near the top. Applying the same logic...

Ok, this blog post is taking much longer than I thought, and I am not even vested! Time to sleep. 

Cheers,

Silly investor

Random thoughts: Bo Tar Chey, the in theme now?

I subtly noticed after our PM mentioned about success even without a degree, many have started sharing the Bo Tar Chey BTC ( never study) success stories.

In fact, some of the otherwise mild people now openly declare their success as compare to their BTC status.

My thoughts on this matter:

1) I agree that u dun need a degree to be successful.

2) However, no need degree does not mean BTC. People who BTC are usually forced by circumstances and not by choice. It could be their family circumstances then were not favorable for education to be pursued. Or it could be, the pupils tried as they might, are just not academically inclined, and found better passion and energy else where. Given Asians generally pursuit academic excellence as a doorway to a comfortable career, many of these BTC is the yesteryears have to go through a lot of hardships and graduate instead from the school of hard knocks, and rightly become very successful people in their own field.

3) BTC will not work for people if they think of it as a easier way out. Many of the BTC, I believed, had tried hard at their studies, endure low esteem, pick themselves up and had a shot at other areas. 

I worry about glorifying BTC, especially if students think they can be successful even if they BTC. 

If they had tried hard, pick themselves up after numerous academic failure, and finally move on to other areas, I am confident that they will find their pasture.

But for the soft jelly, if u take BTC as a excuse not to study hard, I think they are sadly mistaken. TC is a proven path for the mainstream, a highway if u like. You can take a path not taken by others, but make sure u have the stamina and parang to bash through the way, and might end up going in circles. 

For my cilents who tell me BTC also can succeed smugly, I will give it hard to them. For those trying very hard and show grit but get very demoralized, I will tell them there are other paths to Rome. 

Random thoughts: online identity

In my work, I need to "enlighten" my customers on cyber wellness. The online etiquette and the dangers lurking online.

My new workplace has less burning needs to talk about it, as many do not have easy access to broadband. Huh? Ya, that is my initial reaction. I am printing much more now.

Seriously, we talk about identity security.

Cyber world is a unique place. It allows u to have a second life.

I used the Nick greenrookie since I started out and have never changed since, silly investor is a blog name, greenrookie is the forum name. We always say behave online like how u would offline.

I personally think it is a tall order.

Think about it. Are u really just you, anywhere and anytime? As a father, a son, a worker, a boss, a husband, a lover and a kept man (LOL wildest fantasy ), are u really the same person? Of course, your values and character will be a common overlapped themes in all these roles, but I bet my dollar that there are very significant differences in the way you think and behave when u are in those shoes.

I think I know my identity in the cyber world, it is really a part of me, the real me, but just part of me. This part of me, is comfortable operating under a nick, I am not very comfortable to let my colleagues, friends and "customers" know who I am online. Granted, if one day they stumbled who is silly investor, it does not really matter. But I rather keep my online part of me, separated from my life.

When I know there is a gathering of bloggers, I am sure I will just introduce myself as "a reader of your blog", the web itself is an amour, but some
Use this shield to do all sorts of nonsense, but others use it to be themselves, perhaps more themselves than the circumstances allow us to be ourselves.

Anyone agree? 

Random thoughts: The Mind, Method and Money in the recent correction

Actually I would hardly call this a correction, something around 5-10 % perhaps would mean a correction. Maybe we will get it come next week. Nonetheless, I think the "mind" part of me is better now. 

I am reading up companies which I think are successful, sembcorp industries, Keppel, Sembmarine, OsIm... Just for fun  as I expand my radar. The Money part is already fully vested, so no motivation to do detailed analysis. If the M is there, starhill global and low Keng Huat will be what I will accumulate. Too bad I don't have strong vitamin M. No worries, plenty of chances.

Now, back to the M. My portfolio value is doing worse than a few months ago, even in as recent as 2014 perhaps, I will be thinking of averaging down, sell now and buy back. I still have some thoughts, but it is not as loud and I have no urge to take any actions at all. Lee metals has fallen 10% from purchase price and 20% from its peak, hardly any heartache. No "aiyo, why I never sell" ouch moment. APTT is doing worse post dividends, fallen by 6-7 cents after dividends of 4 cents, also no "aiya" moments. Acendas reit and ST engineering is lower than my purchase price now, no "see, no discipline to wait for correction" grumbling.

In short, have been quite a while since, that I can be so peaceful internally. In fact, one voice is quite loud, think my portfolio value has about another 10% to fall, since I believe the STI might go near 3100 or even lower in the short term. I think one main reason for my Mind to be in such a state has a lot to do with my Method.

I used to think of 10-15% fall as a trigger to accumulate. Now, I am also comfortable to let 10-15% loss manifest. It will break even in 2-3 years time due to dividends effect, unless the business fundenmental changes so much, which would mean my longer term analysis of the company is wrong to start with. I can live with 1 mistake. I do not have a concentrated portfolio compare to 6 months ago. I no longer have 20% holding in any one stock after I sold YZJ. I looking at the longer term now, and it put my mind at ease. I know I can live with STI at 3000 over the next few months. If it goes lower than that, it will not happen overnight barring any black swan, I can always look to expand my portfolio next year with my bonus or dividends received. Better to keep some cash at hand. No rush. 

100% vested also mean any bargain has to wait till it really become cheap. I think my underlying 6% yield from

The whole of my portfolio is still on track. The Money part or lack of, is keeping my itchy hand off Starhill global, low Keng huat or even sembcorp. Huh? I miss a boat? Let it go, let it be...

Allow myself to be fully vested without trying to time the market needs my mind to be in this state most of the time, otherwise the Mind and Method will be in conflict. I bought APTT, Venture, Parkson (divested), CMHP and SSC at Higher STI level than current levels. Even if STI is to go to 3150 next week, as the newspaper predict, I do not really think they will be much lower than my entry level. I think STI will have to be at 3000 to get a 5-10% discount to my buy price. Again, I think I can live with 10% paper loss over the short run.

So busy with work this week, so therepuatic, (deep breath) blogging...

I just burn the mid night oil working out deployment plan, pardon me if I dun write coherently 

Cheers, 

Silly investor 

Random thoughts: A day without my car

Sent my car for repair. Had both good and bad experiences.

The good:

Thought it is a good opportunity for my son to experience public transport. Brought him along to the service center and took bus back.

He enjoyed the trip. Took the chance to teach him about working life, priority seat and how much cheaper it is to take bus. His fare is free, and he innocently remarked that his trip to school in school bus is also free. I told him it is not free, in fact it cost $2.5 a trip. He couldn't understand and insist it is free because he need not pay. I explained I already paid to the driver monthly. 

I was telling him the past few days that money do not fall from the sky, and he cannot always expect to get what he wants. I am glad he finally understand it, when I remarked: see so many people taking the bus to work, and he replied: because money don't fall from the sky.

The bad:

I planned an outing with my family in the afternoon. The initial plan is to take my FIL weekend car, since the various trips to fetch my wife from work, back to home and then to orchard and back to home would add up to $ 20. 

Then the call from service center that my car is ready. I rush out hoping to catch a cab and collect my car before bringing my wife for lunch. 

Couldn't get a cab even when I call for one. I decided to have lunch with my wife then get a cab. Hoping that I have better luck at the shopping mall and at a later time. Sme thing happen, long queue at the taxi stand. My wife and I both dial for comfort and SMRT, couldn't get a cab. The weird thing is, the lady behind us call and get a cab. I wondered if its a app thingy that made cabbies refuse to take operator call. My wife tried online booking, got a cab, but the cabbie went to somewhere else. 

In the end, we have to cancel our trip as it is too late. My wife says matter of factly: see, you still say we can do without a car!

Ouch!