Monday, August 24, 2015

Are u following through your plan or shifting goal posts

I have a plan of buying when market correct 10% and more when it hits bear of 20%. I have enough ammo to last a 30% bear. If I consider my wife ammo, maybe a 40% bear too, but I believe that will put a stress on her confidence and perhaps mine too. 

Pardon me, but this post is not about me. No, I am not trumpeting anything, in fact, if market falls further, most probably there will be many laughing at me catching falling knives. 

But the point I want to make is, it is easy to do a paper exercise of saying when market goes down x I will buy Y, and when market goes down x+10 I will buy Y+20.

When it happens, there will be many noise in the market. "What happen if the 2009 bear has no more legs",  "maybe my first round should be when market correct 20% instead", "many are predicting volality to increase, maybe I should wait for dusk to settle"

While some reflections might be valid, if not action is carried out, what good is a plan? Chances are if u froze at 20% fall, u will freeze at 25% or 30% fall. If your intial plan is always "no fat bear no hunting", and you are sticking to it, then you are the man. If u are shifting goal poles, then ... 

Actually, when u see/ hear people doing a roti-Prata, aka flip flop in their plan and action, u know finally "fear" is striking the market. 

It's not so easy to buy when everyone is fearful, isn't it. Just a few fearful and then followed by a growing number of doom talkers will make it harder?

Looking back, why am I so foolish to keep accumulating? 

I have no idea how much longer or deeper the market will fall. But before the fall, I already knew:

1) there must be some "reason" for a bear to happen. Think Euro Scare, and Japan Earthquake. I hardly read any convincing reason except China Economy slowing. 

2) I dun know if it will fall 20% or 40% or 60%. 

3) I am confident of av. Price should at least be fair price when market returns to normalcy whenever it is. I might not be able to make a big bear killing, but I think the dividends should be the trophy even if after a cycle, the price is at the same place.


14 comments:

  1. hi mike
    good post, i bought too much STE , semb corp, dbs and singtel.
    now limited bullet. left around 100k to buy only.

    but i am suffering huge paper losses. about 20% now. omg. heart super pain.

    i plan to hold for super long term liao...

    i just bought some last friday. so today i am hold on my purchase. if market drop around 2750. probably i will buy some. that is.

    let's see how. 走一步,算一步。

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeh,

      20% is not a lot what... I didn't bother to count. I know sembcorp Defintely more than 20% loss liao since my av is 4 dollars I think.

      I am just looking to build better yield base ... Not so worried about port value now.

      I am still looking at 3-5 counters but with ammo only for 1-2.

      Then it's Zzzzzz sleep through winter time

      Delete
    2. hi mike.
      yes. i think the 4% to 9% increment is little consolidation for us. hahahaha.

      ok, well overall losses 20% not a lot meh? my portfolio size is huge.

      well, i am looking at dbs, singtel, sci, ste to buy somemore. if drop somemore.

      but limited bullets. so many to buy...sighz...

      yes, i think i need to hold super long liao.

      Delete
    3. Yeh, if the companies will most prob survive the cycle and continue to evolve and pay dividends, albeit lesser, just turn off the watchlist and collect dividends.

      Also, dun look at port value everyday. Think of the longer term plan. The lower the price the higher the MOS when market does turn.

      Delete
  2. HI Sillyinvestor,

    Agree with you that sticking to the plans that we have set out is important, letting one of the plans fall through gives way to us failing to follow through on other plans and eventually missing out a good opportunity to buy into the market. While some developments may make us reconsider our investments, it's good to stick to our long-term plan and continue to have confidence in the fundamentals that support this plan.

    No one can predict what the market will be like tomorrow so it's better to plan for the long term and pick up shares when they present good value.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Indeed,

      We need to be shameless sometime. If market falls and we are fools, so be it...

      Since when do we get such chance to fire away. It's almost 20% in a matter of weeks!!

      Delete
  3. Hi SI,

    If not worry is not true. Seeing portfolio down and paper loss increasing sure have some effect. Then we need to stay calm and talk to our brain to devise a plan.

    I sell more to accumulate more bullets n loss today at 45/55! my over portfolio drops 15%. if not for early sell it will be more. And like Yeh the drop for me even at 15% is significant.

    Nonetheless, I Just watch a movie on the plane today otw to china "when the father and daugther being pursuit by the killers, father stay calm and make series of home-made bomb and kill all the baddies, then tell daughter that to live life well, staying calm is most important.

    So on the plane, I quickly write down my plans and strategy and Watchlist. It calms me down. It helps and I feel more confident!

    By the way, goal "posts"?

    I hope u well and can use ur bullets wisely spread over a long period of time. Havjng a iron rice bowl is IMPT. for me in private sector, it's very volatile. I need to consider my rice bowl also...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rolf,

      Indeed, our human capital is also part of our diversification. If human capital is like a bonds ( there are junk bonds) then make sense to do more equity.

      I am more excited than worried, actually. Today, there will be another big fall for short sellers to feast. After today, I will prob just turn on the reminders and stop looking ...

      Since then, buys are settled and sell will be far far away.

      The show u watched? Gambling God Las Vegas? Nice and funny show

      Delete
    2. Rolf
      i sometime wonder. many are rushing to sell. maybe market may not die yet.
      so still have one last breathe ? hahaha, ok, just wild think.

      aiya. my portfolio overall paper loss 18.5%...about 85k..really no joke!
      i wanted to sell some of my small cap. but the losses is huge. dunno whether should cut or just hold ...

      sighz

      Delete
    3. Hi SI,

      Yes, God of Gambling Las Vegas. I almost finish all nice english show, so I decide to go for this "crazily light hearted" Wang Jing show starring the old but still stylo Chow Yuen Fatt. Zhang Jia Hui always stay calm in the show. :-)

      Yeh,

      Strangle me pls...i think you should be happy you are a rich man to be able to lose so much. Warren Buffett lost few billions. Stay calm and do what you are most comfortable be it right or wrong!

      Delete
    4. i am too late to cut.
      well, i think if sway sway like what uncle say. drop 40% of my portfolio. i think i will just close two eye. then collect dividend for about 20 years to breakeven.

      btw, i will be 55 years old. get back my capital+ dividend..maybe slightly breakeven. no lose no earn.
      i also happy.

      白忙一场。 most probably 10 years later.

      well, aiya. 人生最后也就是白忙一场。

      Delete
    5. btw, all my money now stuck in share.

      serious. not rich...super broke now.

      Delete
  4. Yeh,

    Where u fall, where u climb! I never believe about resigning to fate wait for 55 yrs old.

    Ur paper loss is not loss. Loss of money is not loss. Think about it...u still have 4 of the H2F3 if really u think 1 F is loss....Health u have, hobbies ?, Family? Friends? Yes.. even financials, frankly u still have...

    I will write a post about positive thinking soon....stay tuned.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well.
      Health. I don't have...This one . Mike knew about this.
      Hobbies. ...This one I have ...listen to youtube songs. Foc
      Family ..OK. .a handsome husband..yes. He still quite handsome now.
      Then friends..OK. .yes. I have few good friends.

      Money..hmm..just now I asked my husband..If one day my paper loss pile up to 250k. Will he kill me. He said he bought a lot saving plan. Later he 45 years old got 250k..

      I feel grateful to have so good husband. Scared he will kill me for losing so much money..

      Delete