This is not a analysis type of company prospecting. Just my loose thoughts and me writing it down to test my own understanding.
Whe I am doing some loose readings and prospecting, a few companies not currently in my radar caught my attention.
First and foremost is Sarine Tech. It is at almost 10 years low. It is not loss Making, has zero debt, gave good dividends, so what is the problem?
There are 2 known big risks. First, no matter how good its techology is in the whole value chain of natural diamonds priduction, from planning to retail, it is affected by the cyclicality of vanity consumer product market.
When the suppliers of rough diamonds slow production due to weak polished diamond prices, diamond Capex will be affected, so Sarine Tech Planning, Mapping, cutting etc software and hardware sale will be affected.
This is just 1 side of the problem. Synthetic diamonds reduce the need for mapping and as much as I tried to Google, I dun think Sarine do cutting for Synthetic Diamonds.
Why am I still interested?
2 reasons. Debeer stated its intention to also produce synthetic diamonds, and not only so, its doing it at a fraction of price of natural diamond. As stated in the newspaper article, the tactic is not so much to undercut the competition, but to really differentiate the natural and synthetic diamond. I am not sure how successful it will be. But I do think it makes a lot of sense to create the 2 tier system.
Personally, the cheapo effect on synthetic diamond, will contrast the premium of natural diamond. Think of farm salmon and wild salmon. Also, as a solitaire, unless u are proposing not with a diamond, which one will u buy? It's not logical and rational at all, but diamond as a vanity product is never logical at the first place.
Assume the price of diamond is 3K, u can get the same grade diamond for 2K, there is this glee feeling of getting a good deal. But when u get it for 800 dollars, it lost its shine. The girl will ask why, and u hope no one will explain to the girl about lab produce diamonds. Nevermind the composite of carbon is the same.
Sarine Tech's Journey, Profile and light series of technology/ software further work on the premium and vanity quotient of diamonds by allowing customisation and adding to the story effect - "A diamond is forever" told in another way, if I can interpret it in my way.
Sarine Tech also face copycat problem in India, it's single biggest market. So there are reasons enough for it's free fall.
But assume a dividend of 3 US cents, EpS for 6 months already 2 US cents, it's a counter giving 4 cents SGD and above 5 Percent dividend when all the odds are against it.
The joy of company prospecting is not so much finding the baggers now. I wish I could, but I enjoy reading and understanding the business and industry through my layman lens. It's quite fun. Acknowledgments to Valuebuddies again, I had fun reading how the early investors took a 3 baggers and unload it before it crash back to earth.
Such fun, reading the bullishness in 2011 and the downturn that lead to a once market darling to become a plague.
Really a eye opener as I read through how growth explode in the early years and the turn came suddenly and how even with 50% fall from the peak, many who predict an rebound would be 30 % in the red now.
If u read the AR and recent announcement, it's "Vanity Enhancing" software seem to be going places, with Singapore Sookee taping its service. Sarine Tech also setting up centers at Guangzhou, Japan.
Of course, if trade war blows, and economy go on tailspin, diamond as a discretionary vanity product will be hit further.
But it does seem worthwhile to be locked into my alert list after primary reading.
Hope, I have time to read and hence share about the second counter that caught my attention, Netlink NBN Trust
When I first got my flat, there is no 20K buffer arrangement, I wipe out my OA. I didn't keep a buffer of several thousands by investing it away, maybe because I am confident of the security of my job.
My first decision in on the allocation of payment of OA to our mortgage. I wipe out my OA monthly contribution and my wife pay the balance. The rationale is my wife can stop working temporarily if she is pregnant or if she needs to take care of kids.
When the HDB officer mention there insurance payable etc, I smile and say there is bonus which will increase CPF contribution monthly too.
My first working decade, especially the first 5 years, my CPF account is a joke. It never really grow, I kinda of even secretly blame myself and wife for this arrangement.
I had plenty of people asking me why I didn't try to pay off mortgage earlier when I am in the workforce 6-7 years, I always replied that there is no rush la, the interest is low, when the truth there is nothing much to pay down anyway.
Looking back, I am happy I made the decision because my wife finally made the decision to left her job to do private work. She feel secure about her CPF when I explained that her interest earned is enough to pay for her monthly mortgage, it makes her more at ease about her financial security.
Call me MCP, I am proud that I can provide for my family. It gives me self-esteem.
As I climb the corporate ladder, my CPF buffer increase, I start to make some voluntary transfers from OA to SA. Thinking the 1.4 percent interest difference make sense.
Looking back, I am an idiot. I have mortgage in excess of 150K and causing me interest of 2.6 percent and I am transferring 10K, 5K, 2K etc to my SA.
Only when my SA hit the ceiling prohibiting transfer that I realise I am better off clearing my mortgage slowly.
I could have together with my wife, clear the mortgage, but we did not.
I wanted to have a buffer now, as I no longer feel so secure about my job. Not really because I might be shown the door but more like I might throw in the towel. I also wanted OA to be of certain amount so that as and when if I do need some money for my child education, it is one possible option. (I rather not take that option though)
Anyway, to cut the story short, I think a lot of discussion on CPF has been about Maximizing returns, I think it is equally important to understand how CPF can be used to addressed our needs before we talk about Maximizing returns.
Next, we can calculate all we want, but there is no need to fret too much over it. A lot depends on luck. Policy changes risk aside, I married early. Just 1 year into my working life and we bought a resale flat. I was damn lucky. Just 1 year working, how much capital do u think I have then? But the BTO and resale gap is very small after subsidy for leaving near parents is considered. It is almost neligible, less than 20K or even 10K and the location for resale flat is better. (Near the mall) it is just pure dumb luck.
Policy changes and tweats to CPF have been too frequent for my comfort. While we do what we can to take advantage of the CPF system, we have to remember 人算不如天算。
Until now, all the policy changes are for the better, or at least justified in economic sense. I dun bash CPF for the sake of bashing, many who bash it won't be able to handle the monies on their own well. Yes. I said that, bite me.