Sunday, March 20, 2022
Thursday, March 17, 2022
I think Alibaba brought a lot of grief to people.
From what I read in the blogger sphere, it seems many people "regret" boarding the bandwagon.
As a silly investor, I would like to give my silly take.
As Alibaba went south, I followed my rules of engagement of accumulating when price show 20-25% weakness. When it is my third or fourth Tranche, I look for 30-35% correction.
Mathematically, the third or fourth tranche will be less than 50% of your last purchase price.
The caveat is the accumulation cannot Exceed 5% of my overall portfolio, and my portfolio, I included my cash that are set aside for investment.
I believe Alibaba cloud business will turn in profits, and its e-commerce still has a moat. I also believe/ hope that regulations will come to an end, and release the pressures on these companies.
My average price is 146 and I am 30% into the red. I missed the lowest price and my last entry is 96, which is just slightly higher than what the market offers now. At its worst, I am down by more than 40%.
I do not think I will accumulate further although I still have leeway and room before the 5% ceiling is hit.
The same can be said of JD, although I waited longer before accumulating because JD results is worse than I expected, (turning in a loss).
I think I am humbled by the HK market, as I am a newbie in it. I didn't experience multiple days of more than 20% swing in price per day with STI.
My holding of HK counters increased significantly when HK hit bear market, alas, I was 2 days too early, or I would be already be sitting on good paper gains.
Yet, I reminded myself that my goal is not about bragging rights, but to build a portfolio that is less fragile to shocks, and one of the way to build such a portfolio is to do bear hunting.
1China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd.
and accumulate JD and Alibaba.
The point I want to make is this, we can never predict the market, and we will likely learn new lessons from Mr Market, but it is of utmost importance to have a plan or strategy and stick to it. Gather data as you execute the plan, and refine it.
If we start throwing out our whole blueprint every time the market move against us, and hope to get a new sure-win plan, we are asking for trouble. We should be more concerned about our portfolio, than individual counters. What is the cash flow generating from that portfolio, and is there any buffer to withstand a correction? My last count, my yield of portfolio is 3-4% only, but it is a portfolio that allowed me to sleep well during turbulent times and is better than CPF, OA, without lock-in period.
I hope to be able to improve either the yield or the MOS of my portfolio. Since I am still building up my portfolio size, I am definitely BUYING more than SELLING. The only stock I sold in the last month is DBS, but I agree with SMOL that I can do better at SELLING, since I am too fixated on buying. It is one area that I think I can improves on, but SELLING and PANIC SELLING are 2 totally different matter
I am more a turnaround investor, so my style suit me alone. I am not peddling my way, but encouraging whoever is sitting on Alibaba paper loss, that well, you have a silly companion who is not just silly but also stubborn.
Sunday, March 6, 2022
Friday, February 11, 2022
Friday, January 28, 2022
It might not be a bad thing.
I bought 2 poles (those for clothes drying), to be used as stands for a DIY volleyball net.
However, my son and I break 2 of these stands/ poles in recent weeks as our spike hit the string too hard.
When I went to those "mama" neighborhood shops to get replacement again, I could not find those extendable poles anymore. So, I settle for the bathroom shower curtain poles that cost twice as much.
I didn't really wanted to wait and shop around anymore as I was really busy and we have already arranged to play volleyball 2 days later.
When I set up the net, I realized the shower poles are made of solid metals and despite us "accidently" hitting the net strongly a few times again, it did not break.
A good thing happen.
In my investing journey, I have wanted to FIRE at age 40-45.
I didn't get what I wanted.
I wanted to have early retirement.
I realized the numbers didn't add up.
I hope to have a retirement that does not become a burden to others. So far, this last wish might still be possible, because if I am healthy, I hope to work as long as I can, as long as I can still contributed in my work.
However, Investing changed my perspectives on many things. I get exposed to ideas of behaviorism and biases, and applying the rules of investing are like training my temperaments, learning how to cope with fear and greed.
If you ask me, if at the end of the day, if my net net gains in investing is a net zero, I would still say it is a wonderful journey.
In my work, I have wanted to climb the coporate ladder.
When I took a back seat, I have to cope with some inner demons and ego issues.
There were quite a few occasions I felt "useless" and blame myself for throwing in the towel.
Now, I am having hell of a time. Every morning, I played volleyball, or rather coach it to pupils with passion and hunger to win. While I am mindful that my secondary school way of training is outdated, with hard drills and a lot of yelling, I sometimes cannot help myself. But the players still come for these "optional" and "extra" trainings, and sometimes when I got ready at 6.40 a.m. Some of them are already waiting for me.
Many chastise me for being "glory" or "Results" hungry, I think they missed the point, and it is sad coming from a PE middle manager. It is not about being the champion, it is the hunger for improvement and success that perks me up, and I look forward to those sessions everyday.
I also have plenty of time free up to make lesson interesting for my pupils, even those not in my school
I arrange for a role-playings during lessons, and pupils actually "cook" in class. One of my pupil had to miss my lesson to go see the dental, and he shouted:" Again?" That he wanted so much to stay in my class to carry out the activities I planned really made my day.
I also create escape room games for my pupils and organized a nation-wide competition just for Foundation Stream pupils, which I believed is the first such national competition for "weak" pupils. Last year, a few teachers text me after the event, and thanks me for organizing such a event for this group of pupils, who do not have much self-confidence. Although there were some glitches last year, and this year, less schools participated, I am still happy that I now work to fulfill my own vision of what education should be.
Sorry that this post sound like self-trumpeting in the end. Perhaps it is those self-encouraging posts.
Thursday, December 16, 2021
Friday, December 10, 2021
I owned shares of the below mentioned counters, and hence have my biases and ulterior motives for writing this post (Evil laughs)
- 1H earning beats 2020 earnings. UOBkayhian biggest earning segment is trading commission.
- SGX trading volume and value for the last 11 months beats 2020 (11 months)
- US market is seeing new high, Thailand trading volume and value for the last 11 months are also significantly higher than 2020.
- If the 50% payout holds (which is the case for many years), there is a high probability that dividends will exceed last year 9.5 cents. (1H EPS is already 11 cents.)
- 2020 EPS is 5.42 NT$, and 1H 2021 EPS is already 3.28NT$
- 2021 there is frequent share buybacks, and this is NOT a yearly occurernce
- 2021 there are 2 vested companies of Hotung that are listed. (None in 2020)
- 2021 NTS$ has strengthen against SGD as compared to 2020
- DPS in 2021 already exceeded 2020
- QOQ deterioration of earnings is not unexpected due to Heightened alert
- Q4 results should bounce back.
- Please read the wonderful article by Squirrel Drey. (One of the best analysis by bloggers for a while)
- As rightly pointed out, steel cost has come down, and with record order book, margins should recovers.
- Management has said the newer contracts has accounted for possible higher costs, and if the steel costs continue to be low, the mix of good and poor margins of contracts would enable better earnings
- Main reason for increase is expectation of special dividends due to spin off of investment business
5) Lung Kee (0255 HK, dual listed in SG )
- 1H 2021 EPS already grown more than 70%
- However Lung Kee did not have a fixed Payout Ratio (Although it is consistently high in the last 4 years)
- Record operational earnings in 1H
- Intern Dividends already increased
- Inflationary environment favours the agri-commodity sector