Saturday, October 1, 2022

My portfolio turns RED

My defense have been breached. I want to write a blog to reflect on a few questions.

1) Could I have sold more earlier? 

2) When to buy more? 

Let's look at the recent actions. My rules governing selling is not price sensitive, as oppose to what many investors and traders use. I ask myself if there is a risk of earning deterioration, and if the odds is high, sell. 

Hence I sold CSE, whose management mentioned about cost overrun eating into margin, and with inflation, I hardly think things can get better easier even with a bigger order book. The price didn't reflect my pessimism, it fells generally with the magnitude of market retreat.

I also reduce Hotung, as I thought the high interest rate environment with make tech VC business more trying, and they have already had 2 years of good growth, and hence is staring at a high base historically 

I reduce Geely 175 HK, since I wanted to keep my HK portfolio smaller than Singapore, and after accumulating on weakness, i got a chance after China declare it wants to support EV industry to offload with profits. I still have half of the shares, but the fall in this counter has been drastic, things could have been worse if I have not cash out 

These sell actions only generated about 5 percent more cash. 

And some of it, I recycled and bought into YZJ Financial and Wilmar, so the net cash increase is slightly less tha 3 percent. 

Compared to TONG portfolio from the edge newspaper, who decidedly trimmed half of it portfolio, my actions seem to be going nowhere. 

Now, why couldnt I sell more. Are there possible deterioration of earnings that I failed to see? 

Inflation, restricted to my limited knowledge, affect margins for almost every company, except perhaps commodity companies (but apparently this is true only for energy but not agriculture, if u look at the price performance of companies.) 

So, so I sell most of my counters? Or should I continue to look at company specific impact, and hold on to those companies since I have no idea what will be a good rentry price. 

The fear of missing out of a good rentry price for good blue chip companies seems to be the reason why I hesitate to sell companies like ST engineering, HK land, Keppel etc, as I scope them up during pandemic panic. I am not sure if such price will come by again. If u ask me if I can sell first and buy back later, I am.not sure what is the "spread" to take advantage of. I did tell myself to buy back DBS after I sold it at 37 yo get back at 20 percent discount, but when it went to sub 30 for a while, I did nothing, and the chance is pased.

Let's assume I should have done it, and I should sell most of my counters now, I am not sure if they will fall another 20 percent, it seems like "gambling" that a Inflation triggered recession will wipe another 20 percent off when prices have already corrected. I think HK counters is really too late to sell, as they have already dropped close to 40 percent from their peak. 

I also shuddered to think that developers/reits who survived 2 years of pandemic crowd control measures who do worse in a recession. 

It seems that at this point of time, the answer is I could not have sold more unless I changed my rules for selling. 

The HK market is a surprise, as I did miss selling the construction companies when the developers are delevaraging and their property market went into doldrum. Beyond that, is school fees paid to understand the business better, what raw material course to look out for, and what regulation to stay clear.

For the second qn, my rule is accumulation when prices fell by 20 percent in a "normal" market and 25 - 30 percent in volatile market. 

It definitely is the latter now, I did went and scope up plenty of HK counters recently. Ping An, ICBC, Alibaba, China Resources 

Even in Singapore, I intiate position on CICT and adds on to SATS. 

I will keep to the rule, and buy anytime when I think the odds of future earning growth is high. (need not be the next quarter) 

Conclusion

There is no denying that I have limited knowledge of how the companies are run and the industries that they are in. 

But the silver lining is that I have not broken any self-written rules for investing. 

I am not sure how I should measure my performance, but I am definitely not losing sleep yet. 

Maybe one of the selling rule could be 2 years of record growth? Any lack of catalyst or first sight of red flag should be enough to activate a sell some call, so I could have perhaps lock in more profits. 

If I followed this rule, I would not be able to sell earlier, but I could have sold Lung Kee, CSCP, lonking etc 

I think the most important rule to review should be I should have a different set of rules for HK portfolio. Since the movement in this market is perhaps 2 to 3 times not volatile. I should take a more active trading mindset with overseas counters

Friday, September 9, 2022

随心笔:中秋节的祝福



中秋快乐, 但愿读者身体健康。

不求闲逸无事,只求累得心甘情愿。

不奢望包容受宠,只要知音的了解 。

不盼亲友四周,只需心存挂念。


最后,俗的可以。

送着一幅图。




Friday, August 19, 2022

Random Thoughts: Fairness


Recently the above words resonate with me a lot. I do not see it as a whin about the world being the "lion" and hence it is survival of the fittest, rather it is about a choice, a choice that we make and hence, we live with it.

We have been taught that our parents take care of us, hence we take care of them. Work hard and study hard, and we will get the food of our labour.

The truth, I guess, is there are plenty of exceptions.

The reverse is true too, Mother Nature has given us almost everything, i.e. resources, fresh air etc, but what have we give back to Mother Nature?

It is about the choice of a process.

Recently, I read up a bit about Karl Marx's ideas about emancipation, and that there is a difference between political emancipation and human emancipation. I guess the romantic vision of human emancipation where the ideas of communion and fellowship is so ingrained in us that people need not institutional rights to protect us, is akin to thinking that lions will not harm us, if we do not harm them.

It is human nature to expect a certain result from a certain efforts. However, as a teacher, I knew firsthand that the threshold of "efforts" is arbitrary, and how much efforts one put in, is often seen in one's own perspective. I seldom hear comments like "I have already done my utmost best" from pupils in the past, but I hear it quite often now. (i.e. Pupils are really more articulate nowadays). From the vintage point of a teacher over years, I have seen how some pupils work really hard without complaints and how some think a little efforts exerted is killing them. Sometimes I just have to reply very blankly that "your best is simply just not enough"

Even if efforts measured by hours are the same, how effective the hours are spent differs, but I would like to point out that it is already very difficult to get some to put in the hours. 

The faster we recognize our choices, and accept the possibilities of our choices, the earlier we discard "complaints" and reduce some of the instinctive negative understanding of our world (Some say is survival instinct)

I might be dealt with some lousy cards in life, and I am taking the opportunity to think and plan for my next steps if the worst happens. I guess I would feel really unhappy if the worst happens, but at the same time, I believed I will pick myself and challenge myself to explore new horizons. 

 

Saturday, August 13, 2022

Random thoughts: Academic and sporting performance

I have faced disappointment in both areas, as a participant and also as a teacher/coach.

We tend to give too much hope to good performance and forget that consistency is the most important.

It is useless to be able to spike, serve well during training and let fear takes over in a match. When we can do very well in some questions, doesn't mean we can answer all similar questions.

In the end, the process of refining how I coach/ teach, becomes more meaningful and motivating than the final results.

My players trained hard but didn't get the results, my pupils were lazy and kept telling me they are stressed and have too much work. 

Effort does not gives u results, it however will likely give u progress.

Let hope those who passes me fear no hardship and progess in life.


Friday, August 12, 2022

随心笔:枷锁

看不见的枷锁,套在心上。

想着以前,害怕改变。

即便有人把我推了出去,

我可能还是看着之前的框框。

我在想:现在的生活比以前好吗?

什么叫好呢?

其实,不同,有什么关系。

何必放不下过去。

不同的节奏,不同的生活,

会给周围的人带来困扰,但是,

不要再犯同样的错误了。

不要再和过去比较了,

我珍惜当下的每一秒,我过得很满足。

我不需要和以前一样,

也许日子会穷一点,

也许,生活没那么写意,

也许,相处的时间少了。

但是,这是并不是最重要的。

解开枷锁,认真去拥抱不同吧。

不同的感触,不同的困难。

心里的宇宙,不要让它小的像沙粒。

走了一圈,或许回到原点,

或许倒退了。

但是,走着,就是活着,

走着,感受着向前迈进吧。

也许,别人走得很高,走得很远。

我就试试,走一下不同的路。

放下,枷锁。

如果推了出来,就潇洒地走,不要回头。

不同,是我的脑筋在玩游戏。



Sunday, June 19, 2022

Random thoughts: A School Holiday Break

The weird insights of my break from work

1) Misses work for the first week of break, but apprehensive about restarting work in the third week.

2) Watch and then finished reading "Demon Slayers". The Anime Art blow my mind, but what really sticks is the line "there is no heaven or hell, that is a concept imagined by weaklings who cannot do anything about their sufferings"

I agreed with it. Althought it is words uttered by demon, we should live out lives to the fullest or to the way we wanted, there is no need to hope for heaven or wish the hell for others. 

3) Reading Dalio "Changing World Order" and Grayting "history of philosophy"

The mind is the most beautiful and effective when combined with the most powerful computer or the most trialling circumstances. 

Live the experiences, and let them become tools of enlightenment and research

4) Simplicity is enjoyed by kids too.

We planned a camping or rather Glaming trip for our son and nieces and relative kids 

We planned bowling, aracde trip, BBQ, jumpolin etc, surprise and surprise. Most of them said they enjoyed the BBQ of Masmalo most, and second the visit to turtle muesem at ORTO.

I shall start work again tomorrow. Looking forward to it. 

Friday, May 27, 2022

Random venting: A weirdo emotions

Warning: Low energy post

I think I am a weirdo.

In the past few months, I have been bombarded with 1 bad news after another.

My good friend going thro divorce, another friend's mum is down with cancer and another passed away. 

In my area of work, a parent complained that I picked on her son. I misplaced a rather important document at work. 

Yet, while these incidents cause some disturbances, I got through them within minutes, made a decision on what I should do, and execute them.

My superior told me my performance might be affected due to the loss of the item. It didn't really bother me, I simply went on to discuss with my bosses and proceed with the actions to bring damage to a minimal.

I was rather "happy" with my zen, and how the many setbacks didn't seem to affect me much. The market pullback didn't even make the list of what bothers me. 

But when the team that I have been coaching and working with lost a match, I was very upset. I feel they lost to their fear and were not playing to their potential. 

In the third and fourth placing match, I told them to play to their best and the placing doesn't matter anymore. They played even worse.

I was quite taken a back by how strongly I feel about the whole incident. The night the team lost the semi-finals, I can't fall asleep and I feel tightness in my chest. The next morning, I did an punishing exercise routine to sweat it out and vent. It works only for a while. 

It's the first day of the holiday, and I still feeling rather moody, the last time I remember experience such intense unhappiness is during the caregiving and later, the passing on of my parents. 

As I lie on bed, I realise I experiencing some "separation anxiety" too. Every year, during my pupils graduation, I would feel it for a week or 2. 

I think I am weird. When my superior told me I might get a much lower performance bonus, I was just upset for like ? 10 min? 

I think I am super emo. So like instead of experiencing separation anxiety once a week, I will experience it twice a year, at the end of the NSG.