Thursday, December 31, 2020

From Recovery to Growth, Pan United and Koufu

It is rather difficult to project earnings beyond 1 year, which is what I learned from Lee metals and silverlake axis, Yet, because of the "unqiue" or "unfortunate" circumstances of Covid-19, it is quite possible that we can project 2 consecutive years of growth. 

2020, is a recovery year from a low base, with 2021 being a "growth" year, just by the virtue of execution of shelved plans. 

Lets start:


1) In their updates, H2 is already better than H1 due to Phase 2. Yet, we know the F&B retailing segment will still be mostly constrained by the WFH affecting stalls' business at those near office and tourist attraction and also by the maximum of 5 people capacity

2) 2021 is a recovery year, due to a low base effect, it is a no brainer that earnings will be better. 

3) Assume vacination rollout is successful and most countries have significant of their population vacinnated in 2021, 2022 could see more "normalisation" of business conditions. 

4) Growth in2021, should come from the successful cost reduction when Asia Deli, and their existing factories are sold when the integrated facility becomes fully operational and their reduncies in P&E get disposed. Depreciation is the largest expense for Koufu. 2021, numbers will be drag down by their higher numbers in depreciation before their dispose of their existing factories.

5) The 2 growth areas of "R&B" tea is the area where the strategy is getting clearer. Instead of owning the brand and going it alone, they are going for partnership and reduce on cost by selling the products on existing stalls of partners. 

6) Product diversification and snergy with deliAsia group companies. In 2018, they made 2 mio profits. I believed they maybe loss making in 2020, but I do notice the presence of dough culture and heritage shops. They intend to increase the shops 4 folds over 5 years.  

RISK: Sudden dearth of successful bidding of food courts.

Pan United

You can see that demand has spiked after August, when dormitory workers are allowed to return to work slowly. 

The site Market Price of RMC is also higher than Begining of 2019. Why 2019? Is the Recovery of Pan United Earnings from the slump of constructions. 

2020 is obviously gone, demand is almost halved. I hardly believe 2021 will be able to fulfilled all pent up demand, especially with labour an issue. Genting and MBS expansion plans could possibly only materialised in 2021 (Not in BCA forecast)

Pan United is a market leader in RMC, and poster boy in terms of innovation of products and etc.

Noted: Vested with both companies (Why would you think I would want to write so much? MUHAHAHAHAHAHAH)

Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Random thought: Excited about creating an escape room

I learnt how to create an online escape room using Harry Potter Theme. 

Took hours, but glad I manage to follow the instructions and create a prototype to help me son. 

Try it here, and keep me feedback 

Hahahaha excited 🤣

Saturday, December 26, 2020

Random thoughts: Investment Plan 2021

 This part of investment journey ahead is likely to be my weakest link, monitoring and documentation. In my work, I am quite weak in documentation and monitoring of the effectiveness of various programs or ideas I had, the only exception perhaps is my pupils' exam competence, although I do not do detailed documentations, there is enough "tests" and assessments that gave me insights about their capability. 

In 2020, I went from the peak of 60% cash to 15% cash, and activated my CPF for investing several times. I have kind of done with building up my portfolio. What I need now, is monitoring, and decide when to hold, sell, and perhaps buy more. 

I have put down the various criterias I used to screen a stock. I now assigned a nummerical score to it, but I will still use it as a guideline instead of saying when the score falls by 3, I will sell. I will defintely look at the total score at least twice a year from now on. The criteria used are

1) FCF yield, above 10% given highest score (-1 to 3)

2) ROE, above 20% given highest score (-1 to 3)

3) ROIC, above 15% given highest score (-1 to 3)

4) Dividend payout rate, and yield, with 30% payout yielding more than 5% guven the highest score (0 to 2)

The above 3 criteria are what I considered as how well a company allocate it capital.

5) Quick ratio, with above 2 given highest score (-1 to 2)

6) Debt to equity ratio, with below 0.3 given highest score. (-1 to 2)

7) Stable/ deterioriating/ growing/ or volatite Gross margin and Net Margin   (-1 to 1)

The above 3 are measure of balance sheet strength and potential red flag of loss of competitiveness

Beyond point 8 are qualatative assessments, it is not rocket science but required judement or opinon

8) Overall track records

9) Adressable market expanding

10) Track record in new product execution or fruitful acquisition

*11) Industry has reached/ near bottome, with consolidation, bankruptcy, utilisation rate and product rate all at muti-years low or historical low 

12) Earning visbility over the next 1 to 2 years.

*13) Signs of turnarounds

For point 11, the question asked before even assigning a score is, is this industry at risk of obsoletion? Oil and Gas come to mind, hence I have sold off all my SembMarine. Keppel has been successful in winning orders in renewal energy, while Sembmarine aims to do the same, there is no order win yet. 

As I am tabulating the scores,  I ask myself what does a high score means? It means the weightage should be managed for those of low score. Selling if the score get lower and lower (HIgh valuation will depressed several criterias for asset allocation criteria) 

But it is really the trend of the score that matters. 

I am not done with it, and will continue to refine it.

But thus far, the companies with the highest score are:

1) ST engineering

2) YZJ and CSPC

3) Silverlake

Lowest score are 

1) Sembcorp Industries

2) Keppel 

3) Capitaland

I will also want to monitor the performance of the companies of the highest and lowest scorers to see if this evaluation makes any sense at the end of 2021

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Merry Chiristmas! Here are 3 Companies that will likely increase their dividends in 2020/21

Merry Christmas, readers. 

How time flies. The end of the holiday is coming, the hectic pace of work will pick up soon and I will miss thinking, researching and blogging soon.

Here are 3 Counters I believed will increase their dividends is 2020 or/ and 2021

All 3 counters have more or less a payout ratio policy, and pay more when time are good/ bad. Also, all three companies should have better earnings in 2021, due to either better addressable market or simply riding the tide. 

1) UOB kayhian pay out 50% of NP, plus minus, and 1H EPS is 9 cents. Due to the crazy trading during this crisis year, comission interest went up by 90%. How they will do in 2H is anybody guess, but with retailers setting up accounts, low interest rate, and a market in generally swinging from excitment of vaccines, and Brexit and many elections to come in 2021, I believe Volatility will be high and trading will likely improve rather than deteriorate, as no bull or bear can be dominaint

2) CSPC Parma (HK: 1093)

This is an company that kind of blows my mind. They have a payout ration of around 30% and has been increasing their dividends in the last 5 years. 

If you look at margin and ROE, ROIC, it is amazing? right? I couldnt believe my eyes. Payout ration is 30%. Topline and bottom line are also increasing.

You can look at other metrics at the above link yourself. It also has a strong balance sheet. I spent quite a bit of time reading up the AR and etc, wanted to know why is such a strong growing company has a shares price that is near 25 years low. 

Someone in the community pointed out that China has various regulartion regarding medicine, and basically, the few that will affect CSPC are 1) Centralised competitive tenders 2) Risk of having medicine removed from rebursement list (No longer subsidized), and one such drug has sales fallen by 60% because of this. 3) No mark up of medicine by hospitals (Hospitals has no incentive to push the sales of certain medicine)

However, the numbers show that it is still growing, especially is Class 1 medicine (Exclusive rights), also they have a record number of medicine to be luanched and in the pipleline as compared to the last 4-5 years. I feel that the market is undervaluing it.

3) YZJ

YZJ aim to pay out  at least 30% of earnings, although they woud pump it out in a rough year. 2020, EPS is unlikely to exceed 2019, the growth so come in 2021. There are a few trends going for it. Order book improvement is one direct factor. Over the years, YZJ has proven to be able to build a repetoire of different vessels, it has even managed to deliver a rig. Containers freight is improving, low sulphur emisson requirement will drive scrapping of older vessels. 

While it is likely that dividends will be increase, it is of no use if you suffer capital loss. YZJ has an HTM business, and has taken an significant impairment in the latest quarter. CSPC has very strong balance sheet, but the dividend yield is low, around 2.5 % (They already started intern dividends).

Kayhian dividend yield is still attractive, but going beyond 2021, it is any guess. Also, it has went from $1.08 to $1.4. I would think the MOS is dwindling. 

One need patience, for CSPC to grow over a few years, and time is always a risk. 

As for recovery of dividends, the banks have potenial, once MAS lift the ceiling for dividends, and the relief scheme expires without spike in bad loans and credit cost. I however, put this as a hope rather than a high probabality. 

Enjoy Christmas. Leave a comment if you have ideas of dividend growers. 


Monday, December 21, 2020

Companies with Free Cash Flow Yield of more than 10%

 After reading the book "Market Masters" a  few times, there are at least 2 "Masters" that swear by free cash flow yield. In fact, they both mentioned 8- 10% yield as a very attractive proposition. 

Hence, I did a scan of all the companies in my portfolio, excluding the reits and financial companies, and discovered several such companies. I calculated FCF yield by using 5 years average OCF minus  5 year average PPE minus 5 year Purchase of Business (If regular and significant), then divide by number of shares and then finally the price. Data drawn from FSM Screener. I gave Sembcorp Industries a miss, since it is considered a "new" business after demerger and Keppel, because its number are too volatile, for the numbers to be meaningful.

They are:

1) Lung Kee (HK 0255) (15%)

2)Yangzijiang (13%)

3) Lonking (HK3339) (13%)

4) *Diary Farm International (13%)

Closely followed by Silverlake Axis and Singpost in the 8-9 % range.

Do note that Diary farm has a debt to equity ratio of 3, according to the website.

Surprisingly, favourites like ST engineering and SATS, are having yield of 2.3-2.5%. 

Looking at the small sample of counters I have, it seems obvious that not all sectors yield such high FCF. Manufacturing seem to be a good place to look. 

Also, I believe valuation is due to a lot of factors, including potential for growth in the next 2-3 years. Or rather, the potential to exceed growth expectations. I am currently finalizing the qualitative part of my screen by giving it a score, beyond quantity numbers like FCF yield. Will share more later. 

Also, the FCF yield is taken with current ratio and debt to equity ratio, and the 2 companies that stand out are Lung Kee (Current ratio >4 and debt to equity ratio below 0.1) and YZJ (Current ratio >3 and debt to equity ratio below 0.2)

YZJ has HTM business. I did send an email asking what impact if any on the recent regulation on Fintech and Shadow Banking in china has on their HTM busines. But I receive no reply. Nonetheless, I do owned YZJ Shares. 

Some Companies that are recently listed like Koufu, are not calculated as the Integrated Facility increase Capex but is not reflective on it recurring Capex, and for Singpost, I only used 3 years average, not including the years when they are building SIngpost Center

Saturday, December 19, 2020

Random thoughts: 2020 in review

2020 has been a good year for me. I am thankful for able to keep my job and learn.

The positives
1) Teaching. I have tried various new ways to teach, and during circuit breaker, I was forced to think about clarity of presentation, which I think helps me in my craft 

I started enjoying my new role as a Senior Teacher more, and my change in role afforded me more time to read, reflect and chase after my pupils. I even start blogging about my teaching highlights. I felt my craft is progressing and my repertoire broadening. 

I think I have also come to terms with my ego that I am no longer in the middle management team. It sure tool longer than I expected.

Going to 2021, I would really like to explore Differentiated instructions in depth, having some concrete ideas after attending courses and reading literature review. Flexible groupings and peer coaching is definitely something I would like to dwell deeper in. 

2) Family and Social
Well, strangely, this is the December I meet up and catch up with my sister, MLS friend, close friends and more. Usually December, I would still be busy at work and after a vacation, I usually dun have much time left. 

So happy to be able to see my close friends' children grown up. Although I have not been a good friend, since I am always MIA, until my friends ask me to pick the date and time instead. Sigh... Glad they never gave up on the hermit and introvert.

3) Investment.
I had time to read. The Covid provided the volatility and opportunities to put cash into use, and hence a hence to review my plan and actions. I shall not bored u with the nitty gritty of the technical stuff. 

My biggest gain, perhaps is my philosophical than technical. I felt I could not and should not try to maximize my winnings. It sound delusion but it isn't really, to me. 

It helps keep my jealousy in check when I read about big portfolio gains in the bloggersphere. I also prompted me to look at sell decisions from just the vague "sell when reasons to buy is gone" to having both a qualitative and quantitative criteria to sell. 

In 2021, I think I should create a scoring system to out in place both my qualaitive and quantitative criteria 

1) Health. My health is getting worse. I can feel it. My gastric acting badly.

2) Work. I think I get too upset or disappointed when my pupils don't perform or behave to expectations. I think I need to be less emo in my work. 

Friday, December 4, 2020

Book Recommendation: Market Masters [332.6 SPE]

 It is not often that I get a investment book that holds my attention. Usually, I find a lot of parroting, but this book is one book that gets me reading non-stop for 2 chapters. I have been reading it for days without complaint and I have been re-reading some of the chapters. It has been a while since "Uncommon Profits, Common Sense" that I find a book that intrigues me. 

The cover of the book looks like this. A glance of the content page show you various investment style by the "gurus" 

I believed my investment beliefs centered more around FA, and the area I look at are cyclicals and turnaround plays. When I settled off reading the value investors and growth investors, that all have nuggets of wisdom that I thought I could apply, like Scoring system, cash flow growth, etc.

As I went on to thematic and TA of those investors, I read how they talk about value traps, and the shortcomings of value investing. Yet, if you ask me, I find all these investors who "debate" against the wisdom of value investing very grounded in FA. It is about alpha, sector, momentum, but it never fails against looking at the management, balance sheet etc. Even for someone who looks at "cup" pattern (whatever that means), talk about market leadership, comparison of competitors and how "weaklings" move compared to the leaders.

Some talk about how as a money manager, they need to manage client expectations and, while he admits tha value investing works, it might not work well enough since the client might pull the money before any meaning appreciation could happen.

If you are free this holiday, or because you work from home, it is a good read. It is easy to navigate and you could go to any investor's interview. Before the transcript of the interview, there is a introduction introducing the investor and their track records, life etc. After the interview, there is a summary of important points made in the interview. The summary is just a 5 min read, if you wish. 

Hope you enjoy the book. I will update when I read it deeper.  

Monday, November 30, 2020

Random thoughts: Rentention of Chinese Characters

I am quite happy with the results of my pupils. It sort of validate some of the works I am doing with them. To be honest, before the releasse of PSLE results, I am worried if I "fail" them, and also that I labour for "nothing". This article is about vocabulary. 

Internalizing vocabulary so that rentention is long term

Internalizing vocabulary, required quite a bit of time. First, it need to be taught, quiz, and read aloud. Those can be done in a day or 2. Then we need to use them in context of speaking and writing. Then it need to be repeated through different writing and speaking context.

I need to clear some of the high frequency or sight words. After which, is quiz after quiz, adaptive quiz where they are tested of vocabulary of low accuracy. 

Visualization of characters, need to encassed in a  system, after the random and creative system of learning it. For example, whenver we see a particular part of a word, it will always mean the same thing, that will help you remember the semanatics of the vocabulary. One example is “辶”,got something to do with "actions" or "movement", hence, I said this looks like a scooter, scooter moves you around. Words that contain this “辶” usually have connections to "places" or "movment". Of course, then you have to go through those words again and again, and the skill behind this is for them to make sense of the part of the words and making a story to link it with meaning on their own

Another example, is the part "古”,I told them it looks like a tombstone, I then link it to words like "故事”,story = are about people that have died, even difficult words like “适合”=suitable, which did not have any inking with "death" or "scooter", I simply said you "move around looking for a place to die, why? Because you wanted the most suitable place, to rest in peace.

The “story” does not have to be logical, in fact the more "creative" it is, the easier for it to be remembered. 

After going through it a few times, I give them a few words, and ask them to do the linking themselves. 

Not all pupils need such help in Chinese Characters, it work the best only with the weakest of pupils, becasue the Chinese Characters make no sense to them at all at the first place, and they just look like alien "pictures".  Below are some of my pupils' work, earlier in the year. Towards the end, due to the restriction of time, I simply forced feed it to my weakest pupil. I should have better planning next year. 

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Random thoughts: Blind spots

 Blind Spot 1

When it comes to investment, I have wondered aloud what is my competence of circle. The recent rally of the market (Which has turned as I am writing this), makes me realise:

1) Almost all counters in my radar raises with the raising tide. There are some salted fish that didnt move, but a quick check makes me realised I do not really need skills to pick the right stock during a raising market. The odds are heavily stacked against one when the tide rises or falls.

2) My competence hence is to prevent permanent loss such that a company go belly up. I look at various ratios etc. But the "outsized" gains depends a lot of positioning your portfolio according to the themes. A lot of positive news that happen recently depend on luck rather than skills. 

3) Thus it seems, temperament and patience, seems to matter much more beyond the basic investment literacy. I cannot trade daily, I cannot find good companies "anytime", most of the time, it takes a lot of waiting. Waiting for luck to allow the margin of safety to appear to buy, for the thesis to work out.

An example, I recently further accumulate CDG and Koufu. I believe phase 3 will benefit them. Between the 2, I see much more catalysts in Koufu than CDG, yet Koufu price falls more than CDG. 

I See the following in Koufu

1) Management accretive accquisition of dough culture.

2) Macau opening up slowly but surely with China containing Covid very well.

3) 2nd expansion to Phillipines and the prior withdrawn expansion to Indonesia left a deep impression in me. They were trying to bring RandB Bublé tea to indon. (I tried it, nothing special, but reasonably good, able to compete with the rest), but they withdrawn suddenly. When they go to phillipines, they worked with peri peri instead. Opening at their stores to try viability. According to their quarter update, it is deem viable even current covid situation. I paying for competent management (compare this to SPH, with poor customer service and incompetent and overpaid acquisitions, yet the price cheong more than 20% with rumors of restructuring. This again, points to luck.)

4) cost saving (operational wise) with their integrated facility in Woodlands. 25 percent space for external vendors have been filling up

Risks are with the bidding of food courts, there might be some lumpiness here and there. Food courts contracts are 3 years. They have returned contracts before. But I see this as a plus, since they are not chasing numbers mindlessly. 

A compelling story, yet it is the worst performing counter. I believed it might still turnaround, but the timing is pure luck. 

Blind Spot 2

Last day of school, I got my pupils to do digital autographs for one another. They can take photos with t their BFF, and read notes and decorate the photo before sharing it with their friends.

I know of a a few pupils who are very shy, so I encourage them to create autograph for their friends, even if no one ask them for a photo shot. I did ask 1 or 2 pupils to approach them to take some photos with the shy ones.

Surprisingly, at the end of the day, I have 3-4 pupils with no photos/ notes in their folder, and some as many as 9. The 3 pupils do not come across as socially aware, although I knew 1 of them are not actually well-liked

Granted, although I am the co-form teacher of the class, I only teach them once a forthnight or month since semester 2, and there are only a handful of pupils who are my chinese pupils, I am quite shocked how these pupils can slip past my radar. There are very nice kids who are very good friends imho with only 1 invite to autograph too. 

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Notice for EGM of SillyInc

Dear Readers, 

Notice of EGM hereby issued. The company seek the mandate to go beyond 10% of the holding in overseas market. As SillyInc expand the radar, It is quite likely that Hong Kong Exchange counters will exceed 10 percent of porftolio very soon. 

Singapore will remain the core and majority of the portfoilo for years to come. Beyond Hong Kong, Silly Inc has made a maiden investment in AT&T and might invest further if the price is right, so it is very unlikely that SillyInc can be a pure local player 

Some of the Hong Kong Counters vested

1) Lonking 3339

2) HSBC 0005

3) SinoPec 0386

4) GA pack 0468

5) Cosco Ship Int 0517

Those in watchlist include

1) APT Satellite 1045

2) Stella Holding1836

3) Ping An Insurance 2318

4) ICBC 1398

5) Tracker Fund 2800

US companies will play a second fiddle to Hong Kong Market. Silly Inc Board of directors wish to assure readers that the company is not looking to chase the tech giants, and many of the companies the company is looking at are near the 52 weeks low.

Of the Hong Kong counters, most counters are screen through various metrics like dividend yield, PB, PE, Margin, Current Ration, Debt to equity ratio etc. before running through the various websites and industry news to get a better idea of their business and growth areas or turnaround areas 

Lonking is in the construction machinery demand business, infrastructure stimulus is usually what China do to boast the economy. The company 1H profits is at par with last year and yet is price is languishing at 52 weeks low. 1H is the period where China undergoes a few months of Lock Down and disrupted the construction industry and if 1H profits hold, we can be confident about the end year results. 

HSBC and SinoPec are opportuntist investment. HSBC went through a few whammy. Suspension of dividends, profits fall due to low interest environment and damning reports that they might have helped to move illicit funds. Of the three, I believe only the second reason is of real concern and no quick fix, despite their restructuring efforts. 

SINOPEC, I shall not repeat what ROLF says in his post, but some quick verification of his findings and the latest results of sinopec does inspire confidence to take the plunge. 

HK account is the only investment account that is in the green in this depressing COVID environment.


We now owned sembcorp marine due to the demerger exercise.

We added Keppel and with SembCorp Industries, we are betting on the whole O and G sector and Singapore move to restructure it to include renewables/ LNG. 

We increase our stake on Capitaland, SingTel, SingPost and HONGKONG Land

We initiate positions on SATS, ASCOTT

We reduce our position on Silverlake, taking impairments/ loss to the portfolio to rebalance the portfolio such not a single counter exceed 10% of the portfolio, either by market value or Cost, whichever is higher. In fact, only 3 counters exceed 5%, and they are SCI, ST eningeering, and Silverlake. We will continue to look to keep and well diversified porfolio through Cash, CPF and SRS.

The company is now 20% cash and 80% equity, excluding funds from CPF available for investing, and liquidation of cash products. We believe we are in a good place to navigate the market. Including all funds for investing, we are comfortable to increase cash holdings to 50% if necessary, although company has no plans to raise cash, unless market went beyond March Low. 

Total Portfolio is Down 5.6%, excluding dividends which we believe outperformed STI index YTD or 1 year time frame and is on par with 3 year time frame. 

Looking forward to your "Approval" during EGM 


Monday, October 26, 2020

Random thoughts: 2015 to Now, what have changed?

This post is inspired by Rolf, looking back at 2015. I did a review in 2015 post, but I ended up reading up what I wrote in 2015, I was quite actively writing in 2015. So maybe i will let this be as random as possible

Family, social 
I wrote about asking a staff, then under my charge did she feel any excitement taking care of her pupils, or a sense of responsibility, and i ask myself the same questions as a father, son, etc. I guess nothing much has changed, the sense of responsibility for those under my care has hardly changed. But if you talk about excitment about seeing my family, I would say things are better at home as well as work, compared to 5 years ago. I talked about spending more time with my parents in 2015, both have passed on. I believed I did my share of caregiving to the best of my ability, but what I discovered in highsight, is my work is my saunctuary for my caregiving, and caregiving my escape and me-time from my other committments. The time spent alone watching the phone or blogging, is care for myself. 

I am more at peace. I dun have a lot of questions. More of reminders to keep to the rules set and refine them periodically. Compared to 5 years ago, my radar went beyond singapore shores to HK and US exchanges. Although both Exchanges have very few counters under radar or watchlist, both are fast expanding. I also no longer dream of early retirement, i simply hope to have some passive income, to the best of my ability. Looking back, I am horrible at money, have I not climb the coporate leader and my human capital appreciate over time, i might be in financial ruins. So, I also no longer habours any dreams to be a beacon of lights or "idol" to others in investment faternality. I shall keep to myself, and write to crystalise my thoughts and feel an article might be interesting. Google ad money is a joke la. 

I read about the inner demons at work, and questions about pedagogy 5 years ago. I am happy that most demons are gone with me stepping down from my management roles. Although there are new demons, they are more manageable. I also have ready answers for a lot of questions, I guess I am no longer confused. The answers I have might not be good or model answers, at least there is something for me to fall back on. I am mindful that given I am more wilful in my work intentions, I might be out of job one day. I have been thinking about various options if I step out to the private work. I am rather confident of my craft and survivability, but lifestyle might need to downgrade if I do private work. 

Closer and closer to the dark side. Less and less compassion. Hardly felt the urge to help someone anymore. The worst Health Really in a mess, before CCA stopped due to Covid, I still tried to exercise as a coach, by warming up with the pupils, and play the sport together with the pupils. Now, I eat more than I should, exercise less than I could. Not a Nice Picture, Bro Rolf,if you are reading this, you keep up your good health and hobby ok... 不要像我这样堕落

Monday, October 5, 2020

Random thoughts: Investments action applicable to relationship building?

Cut your losses, let your winners run (Remember to set a trailing stop)

Basically, we get ride of the lousy counters, and try to keep the best ones. If we go home, deadbeat everyday, are we at our best, or our worst. I am not sure about you, but I definitely at my best when I am feeling tired. Yet, as I look at myself, most of the time I am so tired when I am home, then almost all conversation seem draining and uninteresting. When I am at work, starting the day fresh, I might be able to joke with my colleagues, hold a good conversation as well. When your family is holding to the losses (The burnt-out/ fatigue you) almost everyday, how not to be affected? You look at your counters in red everyday, even if you have conviction you made the right call, you also feel sian right? Find time and window to start and meet your family fresh and energetic 

 Have a mistress? HAHAHA, just kiding. I am guilty of putting 80% of my energy at work. Even when I am at home, I am still working most of the time, marking, preparing lessons etc. The concentration of capital at only area is a high risk venture, as your experinces and identity became a your job designate. In singapore, everyone already appreciate how competitive worklife is and how high cost of living is. I don't think any heartlanders will not understand long working hours and weekends that are also devoted to work. Yet, precisely becasue of that, I should have been more mindful of finding pockets of together time. When your family ask to make breakfast together, even if you rather sleep longer and call in, perhaps it is a good idea to lose that 1 hour or so more hour. Make time for your friends and relative too. I find myself living like a hermit. I do have a few whatsgroup and friends at facebook, but I realise I do not really like meeting out with friends. This Covid19 bring up the hermit it me. 

Understanding the business behind the counter, not just the price 
We research on the company, try to understand the business, do business comparison, key in ratios, read annual reports and industry news. Yet, I don't apply the same rigour in planning for that birthday birthday or that special occasion. Investing is not about having a "cost" mindset, but having a "growth" or "value" mind, perhaps I should stop counting that overseas trip or weekend meal with dollars and cents.

Friday, October 2, 2020
















5) 上天保佑


Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Expanding your radar through FSM stock screener

Note: No affilation to FSM, just find it useful. Recently, have been trying to rebalance my portfolio, and will continue to do so as and when the price and time is right. In the past, my "pond" is just singapore, with FSM STOCK screener, I find the screening process a breeze, before I lock down on a counter to read their annoucements and annual reports, and dig out information beyond 5 years. It is thus far, the best screener.
It is a breeze to look at various exchanges and if you have a particular sector you preferred, to shortlist it. The default criteria are good enough for me, but you can modify it if you wish. Once you have a list, and click on a particular counter, the amount information available is impressive.
Balance sheet, cash flow, data available for 5 years, with various commonly used ratios already calculated for you. If you like researching and prospecting, just like me, do try it out. The 2 counters that I added after using this screener and further readings are: HKEX: 3339 A construction machinery manufacturer. NYSE T: AT & T I find earnings visibility for at least 2 years with possible upside that might be underappreciated by the market. Both have reasonable to significant market share, and likely you get dividend yield north of 7%. Happy prospecting

Friday, September 4, 2020











Thursday, September 3, 2020





机器人觉得很讽刺 。


Friday, August 28, 2020

Random thoughts: Highlights of the week teaching

This week teaching is rather simple and boring, but quite satisfying to me I tried to use songs that my pupils like to teach vocabulary. It is coming to the end, just 12 more working days before they take their PSLE. I no longer have the luxury of time for them to internalize the words, through speaking, reading, and writing. I decided to just tap on their memories to learn the vocabulary. I drew the "story of the Yan" connecting words with hanyupinyin Yan to a story and drawing a picture to help them remember the words 

I also change the lyrics of songs they knew,using the vocabulary of the primary curriculum.

Both teaching methods are nothing to talk about, the fun point is the fact that some of them eagerly waiting to hear the adapted song. 

When I go through the new lyrics of <虫儿飞> and <我们不一样>, they laughed. They keep asking me to sing, and 2 years ago, when I tried doing the same activity, I remember I was apprehensive and very shy. Facing this batch of pupils, somehow the shyness just went away, and I didn't just sing but "perform" the songs, they burst out into hysterical laughters and ask me to sing again. First time in my life I felt like a super star. Hahahaha

I told them to recall what is learn, and reminded them the purpose of the activity. I think the message is not lost. They told me to change the lyrics of 雪花飘飘,aka 一剪梅。

I felt motivated when pupils are excited about their lessons. Although their prelim results are  below expectations, at least they dun hate coming to my class. 

I also start to learn of some of the songs the pupils are listening and some are really quite nice. 

3 years ago, one pupil told me she wanted to be a teacher, because I inspired her, this year, another pupil told me she wanted to be a teacher too. 

Teacher's Day coming. Happy early teacher day to all those in the faternality. Keep your passion and joy alive. 

Personally, I don't like Teacher's Day. I always need to cope with my inner demons when some of my pupils dun show appreciation (I don't need gifts or cards, just a verbal "happy teacher day" should suffice), so I would rather have 364 days of fun teaching. Feelings need not be mutual. 

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Company prospecting: Lonking 3999 (HK)

Has been a while since I done this, but Lonking is a company manucturing for the construction machinery industry. Again, I used price screener to screen stocks in HKex. I recommend FSM price screener.

Lonking is a company with almost an 10% yield. Following pictures are sourced from FSM.

Stable and generally growing top line and bottom line

 Balance sheet strength reasonable. FCF is good. PE is low, at 6. Enough for me to want to dig up on the Annual reports, to read the "story", and also read up more about the industry

Here is what i find:

1) It is a cyclical company, beyond the 5 years info from FSM, you can see earnings going up and down and there is a year in 2013 where they skip dividends. 

2) This is a company that has enough market share that allowed it to positively correlated to the construction machinery demand. When i read about the industry having a rebound from excess supply of machinery, in 2017, the revenue and profits also improved tremendously 

3) When I compare it with Caterpillar, I am quite surprised that they only focused on 4 products, as compared to the wide spectrum of construction machinery offered by Cat. When I search backwards, they use to focus on only 3 products for their growth, so this is a company that is very conservative. The market is still mainly in China. 

4) They have successfully read the downturn in 2013, and survive well to gain in the upturn in 2017. Quite impressive track records. 

5) After the 1st Quarter(due to Covid19), China demand for construction machinery has rebounded strongly, if the correlation is to hold, Lonking should be at minimal able to maintain earnings as last year. 

6) 2020-21 will be unlikely be peak of construction machinery demand, this is my own speculation. I believe China will fast track some infrastructure projects, and rebuild some cities to take into account 5G technology.

7) Shares price has also rebounded strongly from its low, and is in fact at 52 weeks high. 

Conclusion: An interesting company to add to radar and monitor. However, given the cyclicality of its business, this is a company that need to be agile, also since they only give final dividends in June-July, there is plenty of waiting. 

Friday, August 21, 2020

Random thoughts: 2 words Decoding

This year, I teach the bridging graduating class. Their vocabulary base is really limited in the begining of the year. 

As the year progresses, I feel that they should know enough words to start tackling comprehension passages in July.

Yet, I am surprised that they can't cope with simple MCQ. When I get them to read one to one to me, they can read 60 to 70 percent of the words, and yet they are not decoding the text. What a pity, I felt.

After more observations, I noticed that pupils tend to give up when their read long sentences, they might know most of the words in the sentence but not decoding. 

Thus, without explaining a single word, I simply ask them to identify the verb and noun of a sentence (I dun use the term "verb" and "noun") I simply say, the word not useful for me to draw a accurate picture, what is happening ...

No teaching of words, just selecting of words, and if a sentence is too tough, they skip to the next.

As I draw, they get excited.

The words start flowing. Although most of the time they are complaining how ugly the drawings are, it doesn't bother me. 

After the exercise, I ask them to retell the story.

Then, I ask them to try the questions again. Most pupils get most questions correct, this time round.

This exercise of visualization of a image with at least 2 words become a importing thinking process when the pupils decode a text. They start to try to make sense of a sentence despite having difficult words that they don't understand.

It also become more palatable to ask pupils to.keep reading and guessing. I ask, are u able to form an image? Nope, poor quality words, chose another to say if it helps. 

Maybe there is still some novelty in this approach, and my pupils are willing to try.

This is a good way, also to explain the term "key words" now, so what is the question asking, what are the key words.

They know 2 words is all it takes to make some sense of a passage, of course the more words the more accurate the picture.

Don't give up. My pupils

Saturday, August 15, 2020

Random thoughts: Adapting and Applying MTV Word-Phrase-Sentence

 I have diffficulty teaching pupils to answer open ended questions in reading comprehension.

At such, I decided to try a different way. 

First of all, I type a shorter text, consisting of new vocabulary learnt. 

Before I ask pupils to read the text, I ask an Oral Question, and get pupils to write down what they think are logical and possible answer to that question. 

Then, I ask them to read the text, and write down whatever words and phrases (I combined the 2), that they think they can use in the oral question. 

The oral frame is prior knowledge which was taught much earlier for them to elaborate on what they want to say. 

They differentiate the 2 answers by writing them in different colors. What is surprising is everyone can identify key words and some pupils can identify "all" key words related to the question. (I always have a problem of having comprehension answers that made sweeping statements that are too short or generic)

The sentence phase of MTV is adapted. Instead of looking at which sentence is meaningful or captured the essence of the text, I ask pupils to write out their key words in sentences in coherence way using connectors such as "because, if, for example, but" and making sure they are aswering the question directly. 

I just completed marking the answers to the question, this is the first time I saw many different rehrasing of answers to 1 question, and at the same time, making sense to the question. 

Why I think the process works:

1) There is a step of activating self-knowledge or prior knowledge in their daily life, and then connecting that to the text. When the pupils junp into the text without any thinking frame, the idenitification process of key words, is more difficult. 

2) The text is shorter, about 30% shorter, and I gave them time to ask questions to decode. 

3) They are familiar to the oral text, and frame to use, the transfer to knowledge hence become easier. Instead of a 1 answer frame, the pupils are allowed the paraphrase the key words into sentences in whatever ways that make sense to them 

What didn't work:

1) Some pupils have the key words identified, yet they did not write it dowm. The process broken down is the sentence making process. 

2) Some make sentences without making any reference to the question at all. 

What can be further done:

1) Simply asking pupils to be mindful of using all key words identfied. Ask them to tell me what words have they not use? 

How the process can be differentiated?

1) The environment, helping the weaker pupils. Products is standardized, an written answer. Content is already scaldfolded. Maybe, better pupils should have the scaldfold removed, to start the transistion.

2) It can be done for comprehension questions for my P5, when they do corrections. Stronger pupils do their corrections, weaker pupils have the scaldfolding diagram

Saturday, August 1, 2020

Random thoughts: Keppel - Don't be surprised to see price increase come Monday

Keppel has not met the pre-conditions for Temasek offer. 

Temasek can now walk away from the offer and offer a lower bid, or forget the whole exercise as a waste of time and wait for Keppel price to tumble even more, before making another offer. 

Yet, I believe Market might just do the reverse, and the reasons for this are as follow:

1) Keppel underlying profits are surprising resilent excluding the one-off impairments

2) The worst in terms of supply side shock is over. Remember, come 7 August, it is believed that workers can start returning to the yards, and Keppel has enough orders to keep the yards busy. Keppel has 24K workers, and currently only 5 K is working

3) While I believe Covid 19 is going to get worse, I believed there will not be a second lock-down. There will be some tightening of safe-distancing measures or crowd control measures, but unlikely we will see a schronised lockdown again.

If you have been looking at the charts for various countries since the begining of Covid, it is as predictable as ABC. When infections rate is making new high daily, the spike will come sooner or later, this is the case for Spain, USA and Russia etc. Globally, the figures are showing the same trend

Then why no more lock downs? First of all, the damage to economy is hugh. Countries tried lockdowns to get a hold of the virus, hoping to contain it. While it did slow it down, second or third resurgence is seen in many countries, if lock-down just buy you a bit of time, without solving any problem, and  you already have a hugh problem economically, I do not see why anyone would consider a second lockdown. 

Also, I have a conspiracy theory about lock-down. When the lock downs happen, one of the reasons is the world is in dire lack of masks, PPE etc, the lockdowns send almost everyone home as the governments firm up stratgies and address the supply shocks. Now that the world has already went through that phase, I doubt they will go into total lockdowns unless it becomes a last resort. 

4) Demand side shocks should get better. Why do I say this? Everyone is talking about the challenge of a vaccine, and how to get it to the rest of the world, and many were talking about having it this year or perhaps having it next year. All these talk IMHO is management of electoral expectations. Does it really matters to the economy whether you get a vaccine in December or 6-12 months later? There is no agrument about a vaccine anymore, but how quickly and effective it can be circulated among people. 

5) Temasek might not walk away. While Temasek is a commercially run company, I do think there will be plenty of repercussions if they walk away from the deal and return like a vulture for a even cheaper deal, for a local company that employs plenty of locals. If they walk away, they are unlikely to come back. 

Why 51%, with 51% Temasek call the shots, and can restructure the company to unlock values so that the offer price makes sense for them. I am not sure if the restructuring exercise is NTA sensitive, it is more likely future earning accretive or like the Sembcorp Demerger, allow SCM to survive longer in the future. 

6) At $5.4, Keppel is at a price where Temasek first made the offer, when COVID trashed the price to $4.8, and rumors about the deal being off, Temasek stated the offer still stands. I do not think Temasek wants to get a better deal, but rather wants the deal to be done well. Also, Keppel is not in dire state to need Temasek's injection of funds. Temasek would go for the subscription of rights route if that was the case, it is a coporate action to let Temasek restructured the companies for better days.  

Anyway, I like to make speculations, I am more often wrong than right, but it is still fun. I am a retail investor and I am silly, so please take what I say with a bag of salt. If my predictions are wrong, I will punish myself by buying Keppel Corp.

Friday, July 31, 2020

Random thoughts: Open draft 1 of DI journey to myself

Warning: This post is for my own crystillzation of thoughts. 


When I first start to implement D.I. (Differentiated Instructions) in my department, I only manage to plant the idea, but nothing was achieved, except willingness to look at every pupil at an individual for most of my colleagues. 

I now proposed to do this.

Using Carol Tomlinson D.I as the background theory behind the approach, and connecting Dylan William FA strategies as possible enabler. 

A lot of schools are overly concerned with the how to, which is what the teachers "can do" to differentiate, as that is something actionable and can be easily seen, yet, that is at best showmanship, and at worst, derimental to a class learning, without looking at "according to" of the individual. Readiness is also the main bulk domain to consider, since as a teacher in Singapore, I care mainly about their results, yet, without taking into consideration the pupils' learner profile, we could be barking up the wrong tree for the intervention we wish to implement. 

How do we guage a learner readiness, at the key words here is specific learning goals. So it here where Dylan William  FA comes in. Again, here I caution against using piecemeal FA tool for "report writing" or showmanship. FA is a whole process for learning, and not a tool at any particular stage of learning. It needs not be restricted to a 2-3 periods lesson but be look at through the lense of mastery of a learning outcomes, breakdown and monitored by success criteria. 

There is no point knowing where to go, if we don't know where the learner is, and finally, if we do not know how to get there, it is useless.

At certain point of time, there is less emphasis on where to go, or where the learner is, imagine you are taking an major exam in a week or months time, and I would say the teacher would have failed terribly if the pupils do not know where to go, and where they are, they should be slogging at how to get there. It is contextualised and if we silo out thinking, it can be detrimental to learning.

So, for the actionable part of the journey. 

Where the pupil is, how do we systemically work on this.
1) ASW (Analysis of pupils' work) - To cater to readiness of pupils
2) Supplement by interview of pupils - To cater to profile of pupils (Only if ASW doesn't lead to an improvement)

By looking at the mistakes made by pupils, we can understand what are the learning gaps and propose ways to close them. Again, if we look at the Carol's framework, and a common propose solutions by teachers is "scaldfolding" and this is captured by "content differentitation". However, giving pupils peices of work with more help is actually a stop-gap measure, which need to be weds off  sooner or later, and having weaker pupils ALWAYS  doing easier pieces of work without intention of progress is discrimination not differentiation. 

So let me proposed how we can work around the various 4 DI approach. 

After ASW, there could be review of worksheets and learning materials to cater to pupils' readiness, this I believe is already done, although we seem to be looking at broad stroke of marks instead of individual pieces of work when we review our content, and the nuance improvement can be achieved in ASW of work and not just summative assessments when reviewing content. 

My example:
My Pull Out class has their customized oral and writing materials that is closely aligned to the chapter taught. This is to ensure repeition of vocabulary seen, increase opportunities to use these words during reading comprehension, oral speaking and writing. 

Reading passages are summarised and written in simple sentence structures, and not the same as the passages found in the textbook. 

My difficulties:
There are pupils who progress through these scaldfolding and pupils who do not. On highsight, I could have used the ICT purple culture website for pupils to access the HYPY and annotation earlier, so that for pupils who have difficulties in simlified version of it, can still learn. 

Although there are different tier scalffolding in the content, the pupils need to actively access the resouces and move up the tiers of support, and this is where, I find some pupils always struck at the same unrecognised words. They might have access the resources, and read and pronounciate it correctly, but still gotten it wrong when the scaldfold is removed. When these words get my individual's explanation and prompting, they still got it wrong on the third day of practice, as they could not remember it.

I believe the problem is activating learners as owners of their own learning, so that they will monitor they own mistakes and weakness. However, as motivation of the weaker pupils are low, having them do their work consistently and seriously is already a challenge, I am not sure if they are willing to monitor their own portfolio.  

Also, even for pupils who have successful learnt various words through using it, it is not a quick process, and the number of words that can be constantly repeated is constrained by the theme, hence, the impact of results is low, since the decoding competency will still be quite low. 

D.I Processes can be meet with Dylan 3 strategies of  “How to get there"
1) Feedback (Giving individual feedback to move learning forward)
2) Activate pupils as instructional Resouces, having pupils refer to exemplar work and also others' work, to improve their work
3) Activating learners as their owners of their own learning (Self-check, error-detection, refinment of work, corrections etc)

My example and difficulties:
Right now, when a pupil could not meet expectations of a learning outcome, be it graphic stimulus, or oral recording, the teaching goes "offline" whereby I will coach them individually or in smaller groups. I have tried posting better pupils' work online, for pupils to refer to their answers, but this seem like "copying" instead of learning. 

Feedback have been given to pupils, where step by step thinking process, and clearly delineated for easy teaching, and easy customization of advice to adress the particular gap. There is a routine to follow in answering Graphic stimulus interactive writing, after I realised that the question is the problem, not the graphic stimulus. The realisation happens through ASW process of 3 pupils after I seem to spot the similarity of problem for the 3 pupils who did not meet learning outcomes' expectations.

As for interview of pupils, I start to realise in Oral Conversation, and complete the conversation exercises, pupils who answer in English in their mind and then articulate their views in chinese have very horrible sentence structure. To correct the sentence structures, I need to mould their thoughts in word-phrase-sentence process during writing. Yet, oral conversation is a quick and less passive process than writing, hence, I ask pupils to visualise their answers for recount questions in Oral into a picture, and imagine that they are writing a composition. For pupils who are more of visual learners, such a step not only helped them articulate their thoughts more expressively, it also improve the content, and they seem able to elaborate on their answers better. The guess and check method for completing the conversation also worked better for some pupils whereas the translation method work for some others. 

For example, the following pupils have different profiles. 
Linh, Hee Jen - She is visual, when ask to recount an experince through a picture, she can do it well
Chelsa, En Qi - Need examples to repeat, tapping mainly on memory. 
The rest, Justin, Urshea, ZhouJing - Need to be reminded of the various Frames
Cara and Hui En - Seem able to transfer context among writing, oral, reading passages etc best
Nikki - Seems most imaginative, can connect characters with her own stories, should perhaps work on this in her writing.

I tried using music and song to help pupils remember key points before, but it is highly embrassing. But perhaps I should try again once of these days. 

Peer annotation and checks, peer check and feedback always seem to take too long and unproductive

I will stop here. Will continue next week... 

How to differentiate according to content, process, product and etc

It is important here that is it very likely that for an effective DI process to takes place, there is some differentiation in at least 2 of the domains.

For example, in a reading comprehension class, if you like your pupil to do character analysis. You will need the pupils to undestand the action taken by the character, and under what circumstances the character decide on that action, and finally the impact of that action. 

The internal thinking process that you would like the pupil to display will be reading, searching, and then selecting the most crucial deeds. If a pupil is weaker, instead of being able to search and select, he might need to list and eliminate. 

If they have the same documents, are they able to do the same? For the weakest of all pupil, if you like to select for them, and have them decide which are the crucial deed of character, the content that the pupils received would already need to be modify. 

Making connections -- By teachers --

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Random thoughts: Happiness Inflation

Why do we invest? The most common reason I hear is to keep the scrounge of inflation at bay. Personally, I invest because I find the whole process cognitively and emotionally stimulating. Inflation is relative mild in Singapore, we could lose more in investment than inflation, so I didn't really bother about Inflation.

How much money does it cost to buy u happiness then? How long does it lasts? What quality of happiness does it give.

I personally again, feel that as I man whore, I feel money does buy some happiness for me. I quite enjoy having a good meal at a restaurant before Covid. I really appreciate the convenience of a car. 

For people who felt that money can't buy any happiness at all, my contact is at the right corner of the blog, I can help u spend some. 

But, I think we do have to keep our emotional state healthy, just like keeping the economy healthy. There should not be hyperinflation of happiness. 

A good tasting fishball noodles still buy some happiness. Having made a right call at stock and making some money still give me the kick. 

I would say inflation is rather manageable, but compared to being a student, happiness is costing much more now.

I dun need a basketball, someone else in the community center will have it, just go there and play. There is some "law" to follow, but there is no need for sports shoes or a ball. 

I do envy my friend who has the latest game console, but that is more than offset by the joy of playing romance of the three kingdoms at his house. I envy my friend, but never really thought of getting a console myself.

When I earn my allowance during NS and bought my first PlayStation, hell ya, money bought my happiness for months. Enjoying every moment of final fantasy 7, and the best part, my girlfriend and now wife don't mind watching me play game and say the storyline is nice. (Don't think she is lying then hahaha) 

During Uni days, having work part time, I can afford to assembly my own personal PC and play my romance of 3 kingdoms late into the night in the hostel without any nagging. Happiness is bought, and it is really rather worthwhile because it lasted months or even year. 

When I envy others as I grow older, I wanted the same thing. I wanted high pay, big portfolio. Inflation is high. Overseas trip is damn expensive but it is only as good as it lasts. Happiness undergoes runaway inflation. Expectations are high, and sadly due to my incompetence, reality has a gap. They say happiness = reality minus expectations. My late twenties to thirties are the years where the gap is largest 

As I approach my 40s, I allowed my happines to be bought, but I am mindful to control my inflation. I am not as frugal, and I don't thrashed myself after a spending spree. 

I spend quite freely, i like to buy food for my pupils. My colleagues said it's bribery. Well, I am just happy to see them happy, they all leave me and forget me after a year, I dun know what returns I get from them, except happiness in seeing their excited eyes. So nope, it's not bribery, and I will continue to buy "happiness".

Every year, I will spend hundreds on dictionaries for the pupils who have difficulty getting them. I never told anyone as I hear that is a "wrong" thing to do, as there are funds to tap. Nevermind, I buy "convenience" and I don't like to fill forms and ask for other particulars. I was rather upset 2 years ago, when my pupil just smashed it after a few weeks though..

I hope I can continue to afford to buy happiness. How much is your happiness. If it is not expensive, maybe one of these days, I can treat u to your happiness. 

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Random thoughts: An open letter to my friend

I have 2 friends who have started investing, and we have had several chats. I thought I give my coherence thoughts here, what I think are important steps to take.

1) Read, read and read

Understand investment methods, understand business model. Yes, as a retailer, we can never be as good as an insider, but if you are not interested in understanding the business model, maybe the technical analysis route is better for you. Even then, there are plenty to read about TA (Technicial Analysis)

I do fundemental analysis, so I recommend the following reads.

  • Best classic - The intelligent investor  by Benjamin Graham (Read Chapter 8 and 20 again and again)
  • Best classification of companies -  One up in Wall Street by Peterlynch
  • Best research checklist - Common stocks, uncommon profits by Philip Fisher
  • Best industry analysis - The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing by Pat Dorsy
  • Best execution ideas - The art of execution by Lee Freeman
  • Best Earning modeling analysis - Common stock, Common Sense by  Edgar Wachenheim III
These are the chronic order of my reads, but I would think the Intelligent Investor is perhaps quite complicated, and can be left for later. 

Start hanging around Valuebuddies Forum, although a few veterans have been rather inactive there, it is still one of the best FA forum around. 

Download Bloomberg and Reuters and start getting interested in the business news. There is never a day i spend without reading them. It might also be a good idea to subscribe to "the edge"

2) Start investing

It is never the same, before you start investing. When you skins in the games, you are more motivated to read, more motivated to find out more, and you can find out more about your own disposition and emotions when price goes up and down, and you can apply theories.

Market is off the high, so it is not as risky as compared when STI is hovering at 3200. But I suggest less than 10% of your money, and start only with one or two counter that you are most interested in. See how different it is before your click "buy" and after you do it. 

All the assumptions you had can now be tested.  

3) Find the right company

Here, I mean the right friends and cousels to bounce off ideas. Not workshops that you need to pay to attend. 

Finding the right company, you need to understand them, start downloading their quarterly reports, and annual reports, the annocements. Make judegement, connect dots. Read the notes of Annual reports, yes, it is painful, but after a while, you know what to look for, and it becomes faster and shorter.

EMS business - Valuetronics and Frencken (Short post)

A short consolidation of my thoughts.

One of the Post Covid-19 theme that I had in my mind is China-Plus. The redirecting of supply chains to diversify away from China. Valuetronics come to mind, after Rolf mentioned it in his blog. I decided to look deeper and these are more thoughts. (I no longer do excel or charts, you can read those by downloading the AR)

1) Impressive balance sheet and is in net cash position

2) Vietnam diversification is progressing fine, if you read their reports, it went from one customer request, to expansion by leasing a nearby site to meet demands, to having mutiple customers transferring their operations from China to Vietnam. 

However, when I compared this with Frencken, which has more "global" supply chains, it is obvious that Frencken has more "foresight" or "dumb luck". Frencken earnings are hardly affected as the semiconductor and medical segments are able to expand to offset other weaknesses. 

Valuetronics has better margins than Frencken, but what is worrying is Valuetronics has already lost some US customers (i.e. automobile sector) who has bring their supply chain back to US, and a smart lighting customer. Hence it is difficult to project earning recovery post Covid. 

The Vietnam venture seem more like saving existing customers' contracts than a value-adding proposition that might open up new markets. Valuetronics also has its bulk of its exports going to US as compared to Frencken's. 

With Covid-19, there are plenty of talk about resilence of supply chains as compared to just effeciency of supply chains, especially essential goods. My understanding is medical products/ equipements as well as agriculural food supplies. If I read correctly, Venture and Frencken has customers in the lifescience and medical sector but Valuetronics has none.

If you look at the shares price of the 2 companies, market has given thumbs up to frencken but lukewarm reactions to Valuetronics. For someone who invest in turnaround stories or cyclical plays, and I more interested in Valuetronics and would like to see how market might has misread it's prospects. However I could not find anything yet. 

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Interview of SillyInc CEO by Bi Sai Times

SillyInc is a small boutique investment two man show company. Recently the company has stepped out of Singapore markets and has been actively putting its cash to use. We are pleased to interview the CEO of SillyInc, Sillyinvestor in this maiden Issue of Bi Sai Times

First of all, to see the amount of actions taken, at the end of 2019, "Vested amount is 66K in cash account, SRS 9.3K and CPF 5.7K", but in 1H 2020, Vested amount in cash account is 117K, SRS 11.8 k  and CPF 20.4 K. There is a maiden venture into HK Ex of 5K

Q: Why the venture to Hong Kong Exchange, and why not US? 

A: We did look at US ETFs, but the reason why we went to HK at around Feb is because we find Strong free cash flow generating companies giving yield in excess of 7%, and after studying the companies, we find that there are certain growth drivers that might improve earnings, and the odds of big fall in earnings is very unlikely, and hence the safety of the yield. That assessment was in Feb, when Covid 19 has not infected the world. 

Q:I could see that your overall portfolio is still in the red (refer to appendix), for all your accounts, although the SIngapore Cash Equity seems to be relatively doing better than others. Given the V-shape recovery that has taken place, do you have anything to say about the poor performance of your investments

A: As the name of the company implied,we did make some silly mistakes. We start accumulating equity in late Febuary when the market start correcting and when the market has tanked more than 30% from the peak, we slowed down our purchases when the opposite should have happen. We should have accumulate a little less agressively when the correction started and continue to buy when the market tanks.

However, if we include dividends and trading gains, our total portfolio loss of 4% will be halved to 2%, given that STI is still about 20% off its peak, I think our portfolio did not do too badly

Q: What are some "Bi Sai" or "Dua Sai" investment that you regretted?

A: We are getting apprehensive about SAL, given it is about 15% of our Singapore portfolio. Although we still believed that it is too undervalued and growth should materialised when both Singapore and Malaysia start issuing digital bank liscenses, or as and when existing customers go for a overhual of their systems, which has been a few years overdue. SAL main market is in SEA, and it is one of the market leaders, and SEA is the place for digital growth in either e-commerce or Fintech. 

We are scratching our heads to why is the market undervaluing SAL by so much. So well, if this turn out badly, it will really cause our performance to "lao sa”

Q: Did you manage to dig out any "gold" then?

A:Nope. Our average is too high. SCI at one point of time rose 60% from its bottom, but even then it is just our average price of $2.1 -$2.2, but  it did allow us to sleep better at night. 

Q: I saw that you are divesting more than you are investing.

A: Indeed, we sold out First Reit, Pan United, pare down Areit, and CSE.

Q: What are some of your net buy then?

A: ST engineering, SIA engineering, Sembcorp Industries, Silverlake, DBS, SIngtel, Tai Sin, Hotung Investment, Diary Farm

Q: Many belived that the worst is behind us, and SIngapore Market is one of the laggards in the region, are you going to accumulate further. 

A: Nope, at least not as current level, Second Wave infections is already upon us, look at US, Brazil and Meixco. US in a day, has more COVID cases than WUHAN accumulated. 

Q: But many believed that even if cases increases, lock down is not going to happen again

A: That is true, but even the Republican States that initially refused to mandate the use of masks and is already back pedalling, I believe while a sync world-wide lockdown is very unlikely, the many restrictions that will be heightened will prolong the pain of restarting the economy and going forward, the earnings will get real ugly. 

Q: But many analysts are saying we should write off 2020 earnings, as that is priced in and we should look at the reovery that will come in 2021. 

A: Given that we are 70% vested, if really the markets goes into a bull run, I think we should be contented with the gains we should make with the tide rising. But the 30% insurance is necessary in view of the volality of the market with 2nd wave of infections. I believe COVID19, might not be the black swan anymore, it has already reared its ugly head. US and China enmity is more of a concern to me, as it could badly disrupted trade. That theme of "China-Plus" supply chain is one investment theme we are looking at, and we do want to have some ammunition to buy, when the time is right. So not, we do not plan to buy anymore if market just move sideways