Sunday, March 20, 2022

Random thoughts: Energy vampires

I feel drained when I hear the following:

1) Petrol pump is up, everything is going up, and there is going to be GST, the ......

2) Why is there an price difference between Grab food platform and the price of food from food court? Let's order something else ... ...

3) Why is the country opening up? There are still so many cases, they dun care anymore... ...

It is not the content, but the lack of perspective and drama that I hate. I can understand it when a PVH laments about the cost of petrol eating into margins and profits.

Yet, we are safe and sound in Singapore, while Ukraine is being bombed, and car owners who still have their jobs keeping talking about rise in cost, it smacks of lack of thankfulness.

I am glad that Covid, Ukraine's war, and inflation is affecting my life only in terms of dollars and cents and I am very thankful that I can manage, and still get on with life. 

While I have many unhappiness regarding how Covid is managed in Singapore, I think there are many loopholes and flaws in Singapore, but I nonetheless is grateful that we are in no shortage of Vaccines, and our hospitals are not overwhelmed. 

U can disagree with the way things are, I express your opinions, that doesn't make u or me a energy vampires. But if you just like to complain and dramatized the many little inconveniences, I wonder how can we experience happiness and peace. 

Dun be energy vampires.  If we cannot spread positivity, at least keep the negative Energy to ourselves.

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Random thoughts: Alibaba and JD

 I think Alibaba brought a lot of grief to people. 

From what I read in the blogger sphere, it seems many people "regret" boarding the bandwagon. 

As a silly investor, I would like to give my silly take. 

As Alibaba went south, I followed my rules of engagement of accumulating when price show 20-25% weakness. When it is my third or fourth Tranche, I look for 30-35% correction. 

Mathematically, the third or fourth tranche will be less than 50% of your last purchase price.

The caveat is the accumulation cannot Exceed 5% of my overall portfolio, and my portfolio, I included my cash that are set aside for investment. 

I believe Alibaba cloud business will turn in profits, and its e-commerce still has a moat. I also believe/ hope that regulations will come to an end, and release the pressures on these companies. 

My average price is 146 and I am 30% into the red. I missed the lowest price and my last entry is 96, which is just slightly higher than what the market offers now. At its worst, I am down by more than 40%. 

I do not think I will accumulate further although I still have leeway and room before the 5% ceiling is hit. 

The same can be said of JD, although I waited longer before accumulating because JD results is worse than I expected, (turning in a loss).

I think I am humbled by the HK market, as I am a newbie in it. I didn't experience multiple days of more than 20% swing in price per day with STI. 

My holding of HK counters increased significantly when HK hit bear market, alas, I was 2 days too early, or I would be already be sitting on good paper gains. 

Yet, I reminded myself that my goal is not about bragging rights, but to build a portfolio that is less fragile to shocks, and one of the way to build such a portfolio is to do bear hunting. 

I bought:

1China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd. 


3Ping An, 


and accumulate JD and Alibaba. 

The point I want to make is this, we can never predict the market, and we will likely learn new lessons from Mr Market, but it is of utmost importance to have a plan or strategy and stick to it. Gather data as you execute the plan, and refine it. 

If we start throwing out our whole blueprint every time the market move against us, and hope to get a new sure-win plan, we are asking for trouble. We should be more concerned about our portfolio, than individual counters. What is the cash flow generating from that portfolio, and is there any buffer to withstand a correction? My last count, my yield of portfolio is 3-4% only, but it is a portfolio that allowed me to sleep well during turbulent times and is better than CPF, OA, without lock-in period.

I hope to be able to improve either the yield or the MOS of my portfolio. Since I am still building up my portfolio size, I am definitely BUYING more than SELLING. The only stock I sold in the last month is DBS, but I agree with SMOL that I can do better at SELLING, since I am too fixated on buying. It is one area that I think I can improves on, but SELLING and PANIC SELLING are 2 totally different matter

I am more a turnaround investor, so my style suit me alone. I am not peddling my way, but encouraging whoever is sitting on Alibaba paper loss, that well, you have a silly companion who is not just silly but also stubborn. 

Sunday, March 6, 2022

Random thoughts: Steady portfolio in chaotic times.

My portfolio is 10 percent in the green, but I have several misadventures, with counters down by 50 percent or more, such as TianNeng Power international, and several others such as Alibaba 9988

The portfolio is actually not at it lowest, for the past 1 year, despite the HK tech meltdown, Russia War, and inflation fears.

Looking back, the last 6 months provide several reflective points, which I will pen down 

1) Portfolio should include both realised and unrealised profits and also cash.

I used to ignore unrealised profits or loss in looking at my portfolio, and realised how foolish I have been. Several counters that I bought for a trading gains, like Geely, Alibaba, JD has gone from a profits to loss. Geely especially, has met target of 50 percent gains, and yet, I didn't do anything. 

2) Thematic reallocation of portfolio.
When inflation is the scare, I pick up Olam, a commodity player. Commodity plays tend to do well in inflationary environment, and so far it worked well.

Reopening theme plays have not turn out too well. 

But restructuring plays like Capitaland to capital investment, sembcorp Demerger, and Keppel vision 2030 restructuring all turn out relatively well. 

Diversified portfolio need various themes, and I will continue to explore this, together with geographic diversification. I recently re-enter US tech stocks again.

3) Dumb luck.

ST ENGINEERING and BAE are bought, for their cash flow and defensive business. When war broke out, both perform well, although I rather there is no war. I hope war ends quickly and won't not mind the 2 counters knee jerk corrections.

4) Averaging down is a double edge sword.

1 counter, TianNeng Power, has been average down thrice. Hitting for ceiling/ threshold of 5 percent and singlehandedly pull the whole HK portfolio into RED. 

I think I might need some review of Av. Down rules again. 

Of course, there are cases of Averaging down working well, like For Olam, etc.

5) Accumulate up will work too. 

I did that for Hotung, YZJ, Comfort Delgo when I predicted that earning will improve, and pushing up dividends. It works well for all except Comfort Delgo. 

The idea of earning projections and expansion is important in our decision making process. Don't just buy low price, buy when there is low expectations, and earnings can beat those expectations.

6) Diversification gives me a good night sleep.

Non of my counters are above 5 percent of my total portfolio values. In fact, I have more counters in the 2- 3 percent range than 5 percent range. My portfolio value moves up and down like a snail. 

I guess is nothing exciting. But since most of the counters gave a dividend, as long as the portfolio stays above water, I will just milk the dividends and occasional opportunitsic trades.

7) Entry point is everything..Almost.
I created the bulk of my portfolio during the Covid onset scare, when STI is around 2700. 

Yup, I went in early. It bottoms around 2300. 

But it is still a reasonable entry points for most counters.