Monday, February 25, 2019

Random thoughts: 5 years after I thought I begin my journey to Rome

This post is a review of a post of investment principles I had 5 years ago in 2014.

2014 One paradigm shift:
Stop worrying about the value of my portfolio. Not that it is not important, but the cashflow of dividends and the robustness of underlying business is more important

Portfolio value is important. Returns is not as important robustness of portfolio. Keep a decent amount of cash in portfolio. Recent correction with counters in radar falling 50% to 80percent from their historical or recent peak, made me take out my gun and statt firing. The lowest cash went was 40 percent. It is back to 50 percent now with some triming of loses and taking of profits.

Second shift:
Only look at companies with yield of at least 4%. If u expect growth, 4-5% is ok, if u expect flat or zero growth, at least 6% will be appropriate.

NOW: More or less intact the view

Third shift:
Only buy companies that will survive the next downturn and emerge stronger. Trading of companies that are mispriced is permissible with 2 years horizon. Expect such counters to never recover, and be ready to take the risk, and be nimble. Such counters should yield more than 8% to justify the risk. 

Trading of mispriced counters are about turnaround play. Dividend yield is a redundant marker. The risk reward compensation should be in the form of capital gain and the high yield.that should come only after u are right about the turnaround and dividend Increase to justify the high yield due to the low cost of purchase.

If Its 50_50 kind of turnaround, punt small run fast and accumulate only once.

4th shift: 
Do yearly reinvestment of dividends, there is no need to time the market for correction or bear. 

NOW: Hahahha, why am I keeping cash if I am not timing the market

5th shift:
Other savings go into cash. Only invest further with new capital injections when cash form more than 40% of portfolio, or 
When market correct 10-15 % ( 30% of cash can be a activated )
When market correct 15 - 25% ( up to 60% of cash can be used)
when market correct 30% - 40% ( Up to 100% of cash can be used)
When market correct 40-50% ( cash backs savings from 2 of my endowments plans can be used)
More than 50% ( CPF money can be used )

Keep expanding radar...

I go for counter correction too. Of course low tide all boats sink. But if its a industry or company specific correction, I still fire off.

Beside CPF, I have start my maiden investment in SRS. Nope, I am not going to exhuast all cash before using CPF. What good is that.

I will stagger cash and CPF and SRS. So my cash will also get some low prices that to liquidated at a earlier possible time and not until the next decade.

Radar expanding... but more for interest on business than possible winners.

Random thoughts: What is Real?

The passing by in my life,
Are u real?
I give my best to u, enjoyed your company,
Are we real?
You will be gone in a year or two,
Bringing our laughters, my scolding into memory lanes.

Family ties are real instead, u say.
They are with u all the time.
If time is the test of real,
Then relatively, we are all fake as compared to something more permanent.

An half_life is real,
A winkling flower is real?

We feel it, its real.
Remember that fleeting motivation from that sale talk.
I knew that is not real.

Perhaps, nothing is real.
Is a footprint real?

The footprint seen, felt.
The wish to remember the peeson that man who left behind the footprint.

Long after the wind blow the dusk away,
Is real

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Random thoughts: How rich am I?

This not a post about net worth, but rather, a compilation of real people I met, and my observations here. I am being judgmental here, so be warned. Names are not real

1) David has a view on how others should leave their lives. Why is the wife Not working, why work as a Expat overseas when the pay is not much higher. Why Not sack the relative at work who is not contributing. Why not looking to buy property.

It will be too late if we dun buy something to leave for our child. We are being passive if we are not striving to grow our wealth actively.

2) Wilson gambles and is in debts. Mountain high of debt. His mum pays off his debt. He ask mum for money evertimes he needs money. Mum sold off property, to stayed with another son while he continue to stay in condo, keep a pet and ask mum for money to pump petrol, and pay for mortages.

Mum in turns ask all her relatives for money. Beg, scold and hoot big big on toto and 4D. She always claim no one care about her. She blows her Hongbao money given as gifts on a single genting trip. Like mother like son. Both are in debts and Wilson is getting marriEd soon with girlfriend already pregnant.

3) Samuel is single. Spend a lot of time giving weekend tuition. Save enough money to buy an investment property. Became interested in stocks. Ask his friend to teach him. His friend who is yours truly silly investor ask how much money can he lose.

Samuel Says 150K. Silly tease him that he is rich as 150K is silly total assets.

Samuel reply is classic:

You have a child that looks like u
You have a wonderful family living together.
You doing well in your career.
You are nice to your family.
You know how to invest.

You are much richer than me.

Silly being silly and failing Maths Agree with Samuel. Although he is no longer doing as well in his career than what Samuel knows, silly never really feel poor.

He knows he might not be as comfortable as others financially, but he doesn't need advice on how to get rich.

He tried to stay away from Wilson and David, and advise others not to be burden by them.

I think I am rich. I think I am happy. U are richer, god bless u. U are happier, cheers. I need no help or words of encouragement or advice from u, Thank you very much

Thursday, February 7, 2019








会无厘头地想哭 。


Saturday, February 2, 2019