Monday, November 25, 2019
2019 is a year of major changes. This is the year I teach a big class of mix ability. I have always deployed myself to teach the weakest of all pupils, but my previous principal insisted that I change.
The challenges I faced teaching the class is small compared to the immense satisfaction I had as I see them grow and progress.
I am glad all of them pass with flying colors in PSLE. I had hope to produce at least 1 A*, and would have create history if I succeeded. Looking back, having pupils in my class fighting for an A* and believing that they could is already an achievement, because most came to me, just passing the subject. I remember the look in their face, when I told them they have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, if they fight for A*. No one will expect it from them, no one even talks about it with them. It is a high point in my teaching, when those who are already achieving A did not rest on their laurels and continue to push themselves.
This is also the year, I lost my dad. It was a painful year for him, as his health deteriorated. Care-giving could be tiring and frustrating at times. It is also a challenge trying to juggle work with care-giving. I remembered asking pupils to come back for extra lessons during the June holidays and my dad's conditions took a turn for a worse. I didn't cancel those lessons, and I am only 1 day into the week lesson when my dad passed away in the evening.
Strangely, the feeling of lost struck with me for a while, but the grief went away quite quickly.
I was getting ready to return to school when I suddenly had the symptoms of a heart attack. I went to A and E and was admitted to hospital for 3 days. Luckily, its a false alarm and the doctor said the cause could be due to the nerves at the neck being strained.
My health in 2019 was really bad. I had difficulties breathing and need to be put on inhaler. My annual health check also show red flags regarding the liver.
However, I was generally still grateful and happy for the year, as I prepare the biggest change in my worklife. I decided to step down as a HOD and prepare to be a senior teacher. The building up of the portfolio is quite painful as I hate report writing. The OPEN Class experience is also a painful one.
But as I wind down the year, I realize I am happier, looking forward to 2020.
However, perhaps because I grown so close to some of my pupils (I would think the feelings might not be mutual), I actually missed them, and I am quite surprise and sad that some did not come over to talk to me or say good bye during the day of results release.
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
Friday, November 1, 2019
A friend of mine is a freelance Baker of cakes. Her cakes are creative and can be customized to your needs.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Friday, August 2, 2019
Sunday, July 7, 2019
To cut the story short, I will like to share how I have applied my own future modeling using Singapore Companies as case studies. Readers who are interested, please read the book, as I am just trying to scratch the surface with my explanation.
First Step: Look for Market leader.
The reason is simple. I want a company that can captured the industry upturn. A company that will gain when industry turn around and not continue to be a laggard.
The example, I am using is PAN United. Looking at Revenue.
Pan United Rev from Cement and Construction materials
You can see from here there is some sort of correlation and according to https://brandongaille.com/18-singapore-cement-industry-statistics-and-trends/
PAn united is the biggest Cement supplier. Engro, another Cement Supplier listed Singapore managed
2018: 153 mio
2017: 141 mio
2016: 144 mio
So I think there is no doubt Pan United is a Key Market Player that will stand to gain when industry upturn happen.
Second Step: Check for correlation
Profits from the segment of construction material
2018: 8,496,000 with rev 545,710,000
2017: 8,958,000 with rev 527,674,000
2016: 10,657,000 with rev 577,639,000
2015: 12,859,000 with rev 668,421,000
2014: 24,219,000 with rev 612,097,000
2013: 39,406,000 with rev 599,049,000
You can see margin destroyed due to lower demand as well as competition. But Pan United has hold market share reasonable well.
One more chart.
You can see the "good times" correlate to good price of cement RMC.
I am aware of different grade of RMC, the one included in BCA statistic is Grade 40, and there are different type of Concrete, some quick solidifying, some green and carbon neutral, but I still think is a reasonable calculated guess.
So is 2016 - 2018 horrible years in construction demand? From BCA data, the demand for construction in those three years are:
(Data from BCA)
2018 - 27 bio
2017 - 24.5 bio
2016 - 26.1 bio
2015 - 27.2 bio
2014 - 37 bio
Again, it seem 2014 is the golden year for a good reason.
BCA projection of demand is always announced in January. In January the projection is
RMC price is better in Q2 than in Q1, and Pan United Q1 results is already better in 2019, than 2018. I assume that the worst is over for Pan United.
In the book, the author model precise earnings.
I will pass giving a giving an exact figure, I will instead guess a range of possible earnings. Assuming if price of RMC return to the good old days of 110 and above, will margin be closer to the bountiful of years of above 5% ( >6% in 2014)?
2018 margin is at 1.5%, it does not need a party for margin to double. Assume Status Rev 550 mio in 2019 and 600 mio in 2020 (Where the demand for the IR should start flowing), and Margin of 1.8% in 2019 and 2% in 2020, we should see profits of 9.9 mio and 12 mio.
Even if margin double, the best case and most optimistic scenario, it is still only half of what it is like in the good old years. So for a conservative projection, we see EPS of about 1.4 cents, 1.66 cents in 2020.
Assuming pay out ration of 80%, dividend will 1.12 cents and 1.32 cents.
So at current price, PE for 2019 can be 24 times or at good as 12 times (If margin improve to 3%)
Yield can be 3% or 6%
So at current price, it makes no sense for me to add, no matter how much I like it. I bought my first tranche of Pan United at 28.5 cents, so valuation use, it makes slighly more sense at future PE of 20 times or 10 times, and dividend of near 4% to 8%
As I mention earlier, I did a range of valuation than giving a fix figure, but if second quarter earnings makes 1H earning out of my expected range of earning, I know it is time to say good bye.
This is the first time, I spent so much time writing an article on investment, I will leave QAF modeling to next time. (Not vested in QAF)
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Sunday, June 9, 2019
Pan United is a leading supplier of cement in Singapore. Hence their business depends on the demand of the construction sector. Information from BCA show that demand is picking up. The lowest projection of demand is expected to go up over the next few years. The projection came before the announcement of IR expansion. I am not sure if the 9 billion investment is accounted for, I assume that even if it is accounted for, all these would mean the projection Should come to the mid range of projection of close to 30 bio.
When the construction sector is declining in Singapore, pan United still manage to increase revenue and hence improve market shares except for the last 2 years.
Thursday, June 6, 2019
Friday, May 17, 2019
Netlink has play out mostly as the board wanted. Dividends increase, growth in profits, etc. However, the growth is too slow to offset the 45 mio in loans that are used in distributions.
The board would be more hopeful had the growth be more impressive. Going forward, Capex will.most likely increase and if the rate of growth is to continue, netlink could, at best, offset the 45 mio in distribution but they could hardly increase dividends anymore without either CONTINUING WITH THE LOANS DISBURSEMENT OR INCREASE LOANS TO DISBURSE as dividends.
APPT is a good lesson and reference. While the 2 companies are different with different growth sectors and Netlink seem more likely and also competent to capture the growth, it is never a great idea to use loans for distributions.
What happen if Netlink do not use loans anymore? The fall in shares price could be drastic. But Netlink won't do it, they are not stupid. They have enough debt room and cash flow to be on morphim for a long time and hope for growth to come to the rescue.
However, enjoying a 6 pecent yield while facing with such risk seem illogicial. Silly inc had APPT for 11percent yield and manage to offload it for capital gains yeARS ago. The riSK reward profile do not seem attractive.
With the increase in cash, there are several potential companies that silly inc would like to accumulate at the right price.
The company bought Capitaland not based on ratios but the fact that many did not realise the Capitaland will be a very different animal after the merger.
First, there will be a significant ARA type of fund management business. There are many ways to cash in the cow. Put all the reits under one managemENT and IPO it.
Offload different assets to different reits to recyle capital.
Last but not least, it will be able to truly build a whole township without the need to subcontract. Vietnam is industrial towns hot bed, capitaland can build hotels, malls, factories and homes, and also manage it, and sell it for any governmemt overseas.
Capitaland is not a value or turnaround play, but is a good concept play, and the possibities to cash in after the merger is quite aplenty, and those coporate actions make good story headlines.
Saturday, May 4, 2019
The board is in the view that default risk by Lippo K (Biggest rental income customer 87%) is non-existence, since the rights exercise by Lippo K (yet to materialize)
However, since then, First Reit has been falling from above $1 to the low of 93 cents recently. All the known risks have been reduced, yet FR fall instead of rise.
Lets visit the risks:
1) Execution of Meikarta Project by Lippo K (Top management did not get indicted, and there is no adverse updates since then)
2) Default Risk (Almost non existence now, if they raise the fund like they say they would. 1 billion would have wiped off all the loans the parents company had, but of course, 200 mio will be earmarked to develop Meikarta
3) 2021 lease renegotiation to be in Indonesia Currency instead of Singaporean dollars. Well, it will expose one to currency risk indeed.
4) Asset dumping by OUELH or Lippo K. The troublesome and lawsuit laden China projects from OUELH cannot be dumped due to the litigation going on. Japanese home is likely dumping candidate. Hence this post is to provide some numbers for this high probable dumping.
Now the Maths:
Japan homes asset = 290 mio
Yield = 5.5 %
Rental revenue = 16.7 mio
Assumption: (All scenario based on market price of $1, the cheaper u get in, the better the deal)
1) 90 mio by debt, 200 mio rights/ placement (discount at 90 cents)
Future yield becomes 7.6%
2) All Debt. Yield accretive. 9%
3) All rights. Yield 6.9%
4) 140 mio debt (Almost Half), Yield 8%
Board in the view that all rights or all debts way to acquire Japanese Homes is unlikely.
So we are looking at yield at 7% upwards, asssuming they dun price too large a discount, and issue shares at below 90 cents.
Company did not calculate till 2 decimal place and readers are to do due dilligence. Company will most probably trade this counter and will monitor it closely with profit taking and loss cutting markers.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Had been a few hectIc weeks.
However, I still offered to help train the volleyball teams every morning. I really enjoyed the sessions. I feel that the teacher IC is helping me more than I am helping her.
Today, the senior boys team became the national champions. A proud moment for them. There will be no more morning trainings, and I think I am really going to miss them.
At age 40, the last 4 weeks is really God send. I felt I went back to my secondary school days. My school is a notorious school, but I have very fond memories of my CCA trainings.
The jumping and spiking hurt my ankle and knee. I need those guards now. I am no longer young, and the joints hurt. But I really miss those sessions, in fact, I am feeling rather down now.
Those days. Eh... training everyday. My team mates, our friendship.
Will I choose another secondary school? No.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Friday, April 5, 2019
Thursday, April 4, 2019
Its less than 3 years apart since my mun passed away and there is a need of active givegiving for my dad.
I am closer to my dad. Hence, the last 3 months sometime do send my mind to a roller coaster ride.
There is a period of time, I worried for my single child. I thought of checking myself in to a community hospital or home and paying the expenses from my rental. There is no need for my son to worry about me falling, etc.
Having been to the hospital for 3 months. I know how it feels to be staying a hospital, community or otherwise. I rather die at home and is glad that my dad is finally going to be discharged. If lying on the bed 24 hours and wearing pampers is distressing enough, I would not want to stare at the fellow patients, each with different ailments.
I wonder how it would be when my tine comes.
Its a humbling experince. I think I do hope to see my son trying to make me confortable, and talk to me, when it is my turn.
Money, is really not at the back of my mind.
Anyway, talking about money. Do look around construction companies and construction supply companies. rWS and MBs spending 9 billions. Assume construction takes place over 3 years, and annual demand of construction in Singapore is in the range of |28 billion to 32 billion. Its 10 percent more, at the backdrop of continous govt spending on MRT lines.
Pan united is a big player in cement, and while MBS or RWS might use their own construction companies or overseas companies. No one is reallg going to ship cement from overseas.
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Recently, I saw a lot of sponsored ads related to investment in Facebook. Some of my friends like the pages. Out of morbid curiosity, I look at the comment section of a online earning workshop that I know is just ......
I am surprised by the sheer number of people interested.
I hope with this post, people understand that I do not need to lie to mislead u. Just not telling you the full picture is enough.
I shall be upfront that portfolio returns (realised including dividends) or ROA for the last 3 years are 4 percent, 6 percent, 3 percent. Hardly beating any index or doing any better than CPF SA
Let me give examples that how without lying, I can mislead u that I do have a winning strategy.
"Learn how to identify turnaround companies and do cyclical plays. Get returns of 30 to 50 percent within just a year or two or even months. Learn how by analysis of industry trends, company competitive edges allow SI to buy Venture, ST enginnering, Silverlake Axis, Yangzijiang near their low and profit immensely"
I did not lie about the above statement. What I did not tell u is I sold too early, and missed mutibaggers if i have sold them later.
"How to buy at a low of 40 cent and see silverlake balloon almost 50 percent within a few months. Learn how to read fianancial results and identified trends of imminent upturns"
I didn't lie about the above statement too. What I didn't tell u is my average price of purchase is Not 40 cents but 47.5 cents. Suddenly the returns isn't too sexy.
I also didn't tell u I got SIA ENGINEERING turnaround wrong. I also brought Sarine Tech at av. Price of 46 cents and sold it 40 cents to cut loss, only to see it fell to 36 cents and then rebound to above my purchase price.
”learn how to invest in industrial REIT And enjoy CAGR in excess of 10 percent every year for the last 5 years"
I also didn't tell u I calculate capital gains but I have no intention of selling so there is no way to unlock the value. I also didn't tell u I only have 2 lots of Ascendas REIT so it is not going to make a big difference to my overall portfolio returns.
I am quite sure I am not reaching the intended right audience with my post but it satisfies my desire to brag about nothingness and delusuonally still think that it is worthy cause for a post
The good question to ask is how your portfolio is doing as a whole and how long have your been keeping to this portfolio.
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
This post is kind of triggered by B post and also Rolf about success.
While many congratulate him for able to resign, I think he is venturing out with something in a mind and is not exactly on FIRE.
I have been contemplating and researching on a possible plan where I strike it out on my own. I dropped hints to my wife and told her my intentions. While she has her reservations, she supported me if I do take the plunge. I really appreciate it.
We have convsersations, and she offer many other options and advices. I told her my plan is not so.much to escape and make a living and I agreed that there are much safer and less risky options (financially), rather I would like to build something.
Jack ma mention in one of his speeches that we should take risks when we are in the 30s, when we are in the 40s, do what we are good at.
I have calculatEd that I might have to eat grass for 2 years,and if things eventually dun work out, I would have wipe out my savings. I intend to use my investment portfolio for my undertaking.
SMOL poked we want out because we are losing the office politics. While I might not be winning, I hardly think surviving well will be a problem for me, especially after I make some plans to move aside.
It is really the crisis of seeing purpose in the work we do. I am rather delusioned with a lot of things the way they are.
I know I need to learn on the go and be willing to accept possible consequences from failures of my ventures.
However, there is still a part of teaching that I really enjoyed. The interaction with pupils, the bonds and relationships. Of course they are pupils I couldn't reach or couldn't stand me, but I overall, it is really fun.
At 40, I really appreciate every game of sport I still do with kids. I couldn't find adults to play with me, or maybe I didn't lIke playing with adults?
At the back of my mind, I have this thought, this could well be my last time I do this. I did some crazy things that I thought I would not do yeaes ago. Such as accepting invivtation to whatsapp groups and basketball game etc.
My conversation with them have also shifted from giving advices to bordering of talking nonsense.
Make me wondered one early morning, should I just shut up (Not just verbally but also cognitively) and just take my good pay (by my own standard) and just work with the kids and forget about the meaningfulness of othee part of my work.
From my investing style, I know I am a rather risk adverse investor anyway.
Friday, March 15, 2019
Friday, March 8, 2019
Caught myself ...
I realise I need a lot of affirmations in my work. Pupils' feedback, parents' appreciation, peers or bosses' praises.
In the earlier part of my career, I had a very nuturing boss, I was the golden boy at work, I had all of them above in abundance. Looking back objectively, I am sure I dun really deserve all those.
Perhaps, I am used to it. So when I am transferred to another school, the sudden cold turkey treatment gave me a shock.
Today, I realise all these affirmations depend a lot on the giver as much as the receivers.
Its not rocket science, but looking back, I receive affirmations and appreciations from parents who are generous with them, and are not struggling with work. I mean everyone struggle at work, but I meant those who literally faced some hardship. They already struggle to care for themselves and their charge, how can I expect affirmation from them. It should be the other way round, Me assuring them that their child will progress fine.
How about kids. In my previous school, due to their upbringing, kids are a lot more articulate.
I realISE as a child, I do appreciate a lot of teachers but I never show it.
Work, I have a quiet confidence of where I stand now. I know I am somewhere in the middle of the spectrum. Peers and boss recognition are no longer that important. Just likeminded workerS are all that is needed.
This article, is a reminder for myself, to stop looking for affirmation, although I realise I crave a lot for it. LOL.
For those who are helping others and dun feel appreciated. They know, u know, god knows, words are cheap, continue with your good deeds.
Tuesday, March 5, 2019
Has been a while... since I write a story, here goes...
In the year 4023, Earth is obsessed with Green Energy, and all its citizens globally are ruled with Iron hand. Not much is left, and hence the recovery process of earth start in Ernest in about 200 years ago. No one really remembered how life is like without the computerized instructions that are downloaded to our brains and humans simply obey for the greater good of Earth.
All humans aged 6 to 60 are required to run at least 40 kilometers a day, before they can get on to their daily routine. The running on the surf board create the clean kinetic energy needed to run the system. It is the closest thing to 100% zero carbon footprint energy.
When this programme started, of course, not many can run 40 km. Many refused to run, some tried their best and dropout. For those who could, they are not running as fast as they should. The energy generated is sub-optimal, and injury cases are common. Motivation is low, and the programme almost get scrapped because human resistance to this programmed instructions is high and many, regardless whether they are able to complete the race or not.
Hence, the programme start giving incentives to those who can run faster. Those who could not run, but walk the whole distance are also given some credits. Energy harvest improved. To improved the programme, all humans are classified as "Sprinters", "Runners" and "Walkers". Dropout almost become unheard of.
The programme was a great success. Sprinters not only run to complete the distance, they typically all tried to go for the finishing line fast, with 3-4 folds amount of kinetic energy produced that it otherwise would be. The top 1% pupils were given even more incentives and training were provided so that they can even run faster.
The runners also show 100% increased in productivity at least. Strangely, most injury cases now seem to stem from the runners and sprinters group instead of walkers.
To further increase the collective energy generated by all 3 groups. Sprinters are given the best time slot to run, and the most efficient surf boards to tap their energy. They will be the first to run, and only when they have almost complete their race will the runners start, followed by the walkers.
Over time, Walkers are call Slackers. Slackers also felt that they could never be runners.
There are opportunities for Walkers to be promoted to the tier of Runners or even Sprinters, by such cases are few, and they usually take place at a much older age.
Energy harvest was at its peak.
Until one day...
The energy harvest seem to repel each other. The bulk of energy harvest from walkers seem to repel the energy from sprinters. While sprinters produced plenty of energy, the bulk of the human populace are walkers, and their energy output is not to be scoff at. The "pure" energy of Sprinters could not blend well with the energy of walkers.
Efficiency worsen and the blame game start.
It took 10 years before research show that the brains perception and thoughts during the run affect the nature of the energy produced.
So now, there is no more sprinters, runners and walkers. All of them run together, and there are different group in different permutations. Some times, all sprinters are still group together, but most groups would consist at least of runners. Walkers now start the journey together with runners and sprinters. It is hoped that there is more positive energy generated net, and walkers will have more motivations and opportunities to increase speed of running. Sprinters will have less injury cases and will slow down when necessary. There are still explorations of the right permutation to generate maximum harmonious energy
Ok... Its not a story actually... Hahaha
Monday, February 25, 2019
This post is a review of a post of investment principles I had 5 years ago in 2014.
2014 One paradigm shift:
Stop worrying about the value of my portfolio. Not that it is not important, but the cashflow of dividends and the robustness of underlying business is more important
Portfolio value is important. Returns is not as important robustness of portfolio. Keep a decent amount of cash in portfolio. Recent correction with counters in radar falling 50% to 80percent from their historical or recent peak, made me take out my gun and statt firing. The lowest cash went was 40 percent. It is back to 50 percent now with some triming of loses and taking of profits.
Only look at companies with yield of at least 4%. If u expect growth, 4-5% is ok, if u expect flat or zero growth, at least 6% will be appropriate.
NOW: More or less intact the view
Only buy companies that will survive the next downturn and emerge stronger. Trading of companies that are mispriced is permissible with 2 years horizon. Expect such counters to never recover, and be ready to take the risk, and be nimble. Such counters should yield more than 8% to justify the risk.
Trading of mispriced counters are about turnaround play. Dividend yield is a redundant marker. The risk reward compensation should be in the form of capital gain and the high yield.that should come only after u are right about the turnaround and dividend Increase to justify the high yield due to the low cost of purchase.
If Its 50_50 kind of turnaround, punt small run fast and accumulate only once.
Do yearly reinvestment of dividends, there is no need to time the market for correction or bear.
NOW: Hahahha, why am I keeping cash if I am not timing the market
Other savings go into cash. Only invest further with new capital injections when cash form more than 40% of portfolio, or
When market correct 10-15 % ( 30% of cash can be a activated )
When market correct 15 - 25% ( up to 60% of cash can be used)
when market correct 30% - 40% ( Up to 100% of cash can be used)
When market correct 40-50% ( cash backs savings from 2 of my endowments plans can be used)
More than 50% ( CPF money can be used )
Keep expanding radar...
I go for counter correction too. Of course low tide all boats sink. But if its a industry or company specific correction, I still fire off.
Beside CPF, I have start my maiden investment in SRS. Nope, I am not going to exhuast all cash before using CPF. What good is that.
I will stagger cash and CPF and SRS. So my cash will also get some low prices that allow.me to liquidated at a earlier possible time and not until the next decade.
Radar expanding... but more for interest on business than possible winners.
The passing by in my life,
Are u real?
I give my best to u, enjoyed your company,
Are we real?
You will be gone in a year or two,
Bringing our laughters, my scolding into memory lanes.
Family ties are real instead, u say.
They are with u all the time.
If time is the test of real,
Then relatively, we are all fake as compared to something more permanent.
An half_life is real,
A winkling flower is real?
We feel it, its real.
Remember that fleeting motivation from that sale talk.
I knew that is not real.
Perhaps, nothing is real.
Is a footprint real?
The footprint seen, felt.
The wish to remember the peeson that man who left behind the footprint.
Long after the wind blow the dusk away,
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
This not a post about net worth, but rather, a compilation of real people I met, and my observations here. I am being judgmental here, so be warned. Names are not real
1) David has a view on how others should leave their lives. Why is the wife Not working, why work as a Expat overseas when the pay is not much higher. Why Not sack the relative at work who is not contributing. Why not looking to buy property.
It will be too late if we dun buy something to leave for our child. We are being passive if we are not striving to grow our wealth actively.
2) Wilson gambles and is in debts. Mountain high of debt. His mum pays off his debt. He ask mum for money evertimes he needs money. Mum sold off property, to stayed with another son while he continue to stay in condo, keep a pet and ask mum for money to pump petrol, and pay for mortages.
Mum in turns ask all her relatives for money. Beg, scold and hoot big big on toto and 4D. She always claim no one care about her. She blows her Hongbao money given as gifts on a single genting trip. Like mother like son. Both are in debts and Wilson is getting marriEd soon with girlfriend already pregnant.
3) Samuel is single. Spend a lot of time giving weekend tuition. Save enough money to buy an investment property. Became interested in stocks. Ask his friend to teach him. His friend who is yours truly silly investor ask how much money can he lose.
Samuel Says 150K. Silly tease him that he is rich as 150K is silly total assets.
Samuel reply is classic:
You have a child that looks like u
You have a wonderful family living together.
You doing well in your career.
You are nice to your family.
You know how to invest.
You are much richer than me.
Silly being silly and failing Maths Agree with Samuel. Although he is no longer doing as well in his career than what Samuel knows, silly never really feel poor.
He knows he might not be as comfortable as others financially, but he doesn't need advice on how to get rich.
He tried to stay away from Wilson and David, and advise others not to be burden by them.
I think I am rich. I think I am happy. U are richer, god bless u. U are happier, cheers. I need no help or words of encouragement or advice from u, Thank you very much
Thursday, February 7, 2019
Saturday, February 2, 2019
Saturday, January 19, 2019