Saturday, February 27, 2021

A review of my company prospecting process: More hits than misses

Less than a year ago, after a screening process, I highlight 4 companies

https://sillyinvestor.blogspot.com/2020/05/company-prospecting-process-maxi-cash.html

Of the 4 companies, Maxi-cash, Muti-chem, Hotung, and Overseas Family education,

I only invested in Hotung. 

Maxi-cash and Muti-Chem gives capital gain of 50% and 70% had in invested in them, and Hotung, just 15%, excluding dividends. 

What went wrong? I think I have current yield bias, and aversion to company with high loan to equity ratio. Could I have done better? I am not sure. I guess missing out on gains is better than holding on to losses.

I predicted improving dividends for 3 counters in blogpost here

https://sillyinvestor.blogspot.com/2020/12/merry-chiristmas-here-are-3-companies.html

Of the three, YZJ kept is earnings intact, Kayhian did increase it, and Verdict is not out yet on CSCP. Companies that pay out dividends as a ratio of earnings could see higher volatility of dividends but it might made timing the turnaround more rewarding. BAE system also guided on 50% payout, and with improving earnings (Projected), I hope to repeat the success of it. 

Third, using Free cash flow yield

https://sillyinvestor.blogspot.com/2020/12/merry-chiristmas-here-are-3-companies.html

1) Lung Kee (HK 0255) (15%)

2)Yangzijiang (13%)

3) Lonking (HK3339) (13%)

4) *Diary Farm International (13%)

Closely followed by Silverlake Axis and Singpost in the 8-9 % range.


In terms of capital gains, with exception of lonking, all are in the range of 10%, DFI and Silverlake are loss making and I have exited SIlverlake after they suspended dividends in 1H.

I recently also found another company 0819 TianNeng Power with FCF in excess of 10%, PE in the range of 10, in the sector of making batteries for EV and etc. An growing company in a growing industry should deserve better valuation and due to the min lot size of 2000 shares, it is my biggest HK purchase. However, I am already 10% underwater. 

FCF yield need longer runway before they can appreciated by market? 

The better counters, such as SATS(>50% gain), has nothing fundemental improving, although the outlook is defintely better. 

The concluding thought I have, is hence:

I really hope to count on luck, and hence diversification is important. After I sold off Silverlake, non of my counters hold more than 5% in my portfolio. In fact, most of then are in the 2-3% range. 

Hence, although i do have some counters than are gaining 70% or 50%, as a portfolio, it is just 6% gain based on COST. 

Hope I continue to be lucky. 

 

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  31. Fresh Fullz supplier USA/CANADA/UK

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  32. I’m so glad that I have gotten all my funds back without any stress thanks to Century recovery team. For me, am posting this review because I want to be of help to someone out there going through a lot to recover their bitcoin even though many people told me it’s impossible. I invested about $132,000 from a Binary Operation company I found on Telegram. After much depositing, I decided to withdraw after several weeks but the withdrawal wasn’t successful. I contacted the binary operation through their email and phone number, though I didn’t get any response from them and that was when everything clicked that I was scammed. Some weeks later I got a mail from them insisting I should invest more money if I want to withdraw my money which I rejected, and I never heard from them again. I was really devastated at this moment and felt so bad that my hard earned money was gone. Then I was introduced to this wonderful recovery team Called Century Hacker by my church lead choir so I emailed them century@cyberservices.com '' explained to him what happened and all I had to do was to follow his instructions so he can help me recover my funds which he did and i got all my money back i am so happy i decided to share my good news for those that are having same issues should contact him via century@cyberservices.com

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  34. FRESH UPDATED NOV/2023 FULLZ AVAILABLE
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    ReplyDelete