Thursday, August 9, 2018

Contrarian

How do u define contrarian investing?

The most popular is buy when market is low and when there is blood on the street. But it is such common knowledge that I doubt it can be called contrarian, since by definition, it is about going against popular wisdom.

Personally, being a contrarian would need one to be exposed to short term pain.

I would think there is no such thing as contrarian investing. Its simply about convinction, which I lack.

I have some success with companies that I bought when they are doing well and they continue to do well. I have also companies which I bought when faith in them is low. Both have their hits and misses, so the key is not about being contrarian for the sake of contrarian but convinction of own analysis.

With the reporting season coming to an end soon, I do like Singpost. Their parcel busines is scaling up nicely, most probably due to the feeding of business from.lazada.

Since new management comes online, they have been taking writeoff. While the warrant loss is a surprise, I would he more surprise if the cleaning up is not coming to an end soon with the new board already in place for sometime.

Its another stock at 5 years low.

However, I am.holding off buying anything

This continous bull run is really getting on my nerves and I feel myself losing the discipline to hold a warchest.

Anyway, I have 3 months before the next reporting window. Those who report bad results wouldn't run up anyway.

The other company playing out as it should is ST engineering, and I tempted to buy higher to chase higher.

Again, we will see how it goes.

Anyway, if we look at the 3 telcos local.market battle, M1 seem to be doing the best in terms of getting new subscribers. Another company that is at investor rubbish dump without TPG firing the first salvo.

Was hoping TPG show their cards quickly.

They will surely have cheaper deals in order to gain market shares. The question is how much? Unlikely it will be a grab Uber type of cut throat competition, but anything between what is offering by market now and how far it cuts is very important.

In short, as long as u have a style that doesn't waver, u are already a contrarian. This is not to say u cannot change your style or try new things. Its about a core that u believed works. Some of the bloggers have it. Some show that they have it.

And theIr short term results is not the determining criteria

9 comments:

  1. Hi SI

    watching singpost too, maybe another drop of 20% from current price.

    Let's see where and how it goes. hah

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hahaha STI,

      All the best of luck, hope u get what u want.

      Think another 10 percent will be super itchy le

      Delete
  2. Seldom hear any retail investors say that they are not contrarian

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hahaha, so now its contrarian to say I am not a contratrian.

      It's just a word and name. Say whatever u like, like wareen and uncle temp conviction, dun lose money (win money) consistently can le. Who care u value investor, trend trader or sitting on multiple baggers that feed dividends or dividends

      Delete
  3. Contrarian is simply deep value, combined perhaps with extreme sentiment indicators.

    ReplyDelete
  4. For Singpost, my take is wait for them to raise up their hands and give up on their US investment. That will be the start of a turnaround (or higher chance of a turnaround I reckoned). Ditto for Singtel

    ReplyDelete
  5. CONTRArian, defined as those who play contra. Just joking.

    But really, we should not be attached to these names. Value investor, contrarian investors, technical trader etc, and allow ourselves to 对号入座。 Just invest happily.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi yeow Hwee,

    Indeed, make money can le. Who care so much about Tthe techniques.its already difficult enough to spar with Mr market, who cares your moves as long as u can surprise him and know him out of the ring

    ReplyDelete
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