Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Random thoughts: APTT and First Reit

A lot have been said about these 2 counters. I just want to share some findings that I think is not yet cover by bloggers (to my best knowledge)

Let's start with APTT:
1) With the new dividends of 1.2 cents, and assume Capex of 75 Mio and Interest and tax expenses to remain constant, APTT will have a buffer of 4 to 8 Mio after Dividends from their generated cash flow. Good, dividends more or less safe.

2) APTT growth if any, can only come from broadband. Pay TV in Taiwan is not exactly the same as Singapore. Even streaming need Broadband.
They claim they have cost advantage, and they are able to offer  their customers better speed without extra cost. I decide to investigate more.

I believe this is a important part of the business. Yet
https://www.cht.com.tw/en/home/cht/messages/2018/en-msg-181116-121200
I find Chung Hwa broadband rate highly competitive. Their is hardly any cost advantage.

3) I found this review very disturbing.

https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-xiaomi&hl=en-GB&v=8.65.4.21.arm64&output=search&q=TBC信和有線電視&ludocid=10826391245477538435&ibp=gwp;0,7&kgs=c45d337e764dfacd&shndl=-1&source=sh/x/kp/local&entrypoint=sh/x/kp/local

While bad review or mix review is common, j have not seen any review that bad. If what is complained is true, it says volume of their product quality and why they didn't make much headway into Taichung after winning the license for 2 years

I had initially wanted to add more the day it went XD. After researching, I sold all instead. I am happy to have avoid a otherwise 10 percent drop in matters of days and I exited losing only Commission after dividends.

First Reit:
1) From lippo K announcement:
LPKR has successfully delivered on its asset divestment plan with the completion of the sale of First REIT Manager and a partial sale of its First REIT shares generating IDR 2.2 trillion in proceeds. Together with the upcoming imminent asset divestments, the Company will raise in excess of IDR 6 trillion in net cash.  
This will allow LPKR to further strengthen its liquidity position allowing it to meet with certainty all debt repayments including the US$75 million unsecured bonds due in June 2020; as such, the next maturity event for LPKR would not be until 2022.

That is already about 150 mio USD from 2.2 trillion. So any risk of default should come earliest 2022.

2) Asset Dumping (speculation)

The latest 9 MTH report from siloam hospitals show they turn loss to net profits.Also the lease cost is in single digit of operating cost.
(Look at footnote 36 and the numbers in liability)
Even if Siloam want to cut some cost, the lease will be the least that bothers them.
It is also unlikely OUELH will p/dump Japan nursing homes to FR like what a analyst suggest. Because that's the only thing left in its portfolio that is not toxic. (Not including the new Greenfield development projects)

I wanted to add more if there is price weakness, if not I will wait for rights issue to add.



33 comments:

  1. First reit leases the hospitals to Lippo K, which in turn leases to Siloam Hospitals. Leases paid by Siloam is lesser than what Lippo K is paying First REIT (i.e. rental support). The 'default/restructure' risk is coming from that angle. Lippo K and friends still have a lot of hospitals waiting to sell i believe, their target is to reach 40+ hospitals in Indonesia?

    Lippo K is running neg operating cash flow, unable to cover interest cost. Which is why they have to sell assets and meet interest payments too. Interest expenses is about IDR 1 trillion a year (see annual report)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anon, thanks.

      Always good to have a different angle. Will read up more and decide again. My first instinct is as a town developer, it's common for cash flow to be lumpy, but I will check the records ... Thanks a lot of the head up

      Delete
  2. you need to read more details. I won't touch this high risk counter.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi silly investor, the link on aptt review you found so disturbing is not working. Do you mind summarising what it says or putting in a working hyperlink?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ka Ki,

      Its Google review. I think 150 something review, can't really find those that are not one star.

      ComMon complaints:
      TV signals unstable.
      Internet signals down during certain hours.
      Poor service support when calls are made to get help.
      Poor and slow refUnd procedure

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  29. สวัสดี
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  30. HELLO
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