Temasek can now walk away from the offer and offer a lower bid, or forget the whole exercise as a waste of time and wait for Keppel price to tumble even more, before making another offer.
Yet, I believe Market might just do the reverse, and the reasons for this are as follow:
1) Keppel underlying profits are surprising resilent excluding the one-off impairments
2) The worst in terms of supply side shock is over. Remember, come 7 August, it is believed that workers can start returning to the yards, and Keppel has enough orders to keep the yards busy. Keppel has 24K workers, and currently only 5 K is working
3) While I believe Covid 19 is going to get worse, I believed there will not be a second lock-down. There will be some tightening of safe-distancing measures or crowd control measures, but unlikely we will see a schronised lockdown again.
If you have been looking at the charts for various countries since the begining of Covid, it is as predictable as ABC. When infections rate is making new high daily, the spike will come sooner or later, this is the case for Spain, USA and Russia etc. Globally, the figures are showing the same trend
Then why no more lock downs? First of all, the damage to economy is hugh. Countries tried lockdowns to get a hold of the virus, hoping to contain it. While it did slow it down, second or third resurgence is seen in many countries, if lock-down just buy you a bit of time, without solving any problem, and you already have a hugh problem economically, I do not see why anyone would consider a second lockdown.
Also, I have a conspiracy theory about lock-down. When the lock downs happen, one of the reasons is the world is in dire lack of masks, PPE etc, the lockdowns send almost everyone home as the governments firm up stratgies and address the supply shocks. Now that the world has already went through that phase, I doubt they will go into total lockdowns unless it becomes a last resort.
Also, I have a conspiracy theory about lock-down. When the lock downs happen, one of the reasons is the world is in dire lack of masks, PPE etc, the lockdowns send almost everyone home as the governments firm up stratgies and address the supply shocks. Now that the world has already went through that phase, I doubt they will go into total lockdowns unless it becomes a last resort.
4) Demand side shocks should get better. Why do I say this? Everyone is talking about the challenge of a vaccine, and how to get it to the rest of the world, and many were talking about having it this year or perhaps having it next year. All these talk IMHO is management of electoral expectations. Does it really matters to the economy whether you get a vaccine in December or 6-12 months later? There is no agrument about a vaccine anymore, but how quickly and effective it can be circulated among people.
5) Temasek might not walk away. While Temasek is a commercially run company, I do think there will be plenty of repercussions if they walk away from the deal and return like a vulture for a even cheaper deal, for a local company that employs plenty of locals. If they walk away, they are unlikely to come back.
Why 51%, with 51% Temasek call the shots, and can restructure the company to unlock values so that the offer price makes sense for them. I am not sure if the restructuring exercise is NTA sensitive, it is more likely future earning accretive or like the Sembcorp Demerger, allow SCM to survive longer in the future.
6) At $5.4, Keppel is at a price where Temasek first made the offer, when COVID trashed the price to $4.8, and rumors about the deal being off, Temasek stated the offer still stands. I do not think Temasek wants to get a better deal, but rather wants the deal to be done well. Also, Keppel is not in dire state to need Temasek's injection of funds. Temasek would go for the subscription of rights route if that was the case, it is a coporate action to let Temasek restructured the companies for better days.
Anyway, I like to make speculations, I am more often wrong than right, but it is still fun. I am a retail investor and I am silly, so please take what I say with a bag of salt. If my predictions are wrong, I will punish myself by buying Keppel Corp.
Temasek could have just walked away on Monday and don't wait to up to 31 Aug to decide. Possible to revise $7.35 downward.
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DeleteCW, then I shall get some. Yup. Agreed that the possibility is there.
ReplyDeleteIf the worst happen, like TI walk off, I think Keppel is still attractive
i think T will not walk away but then T will look silly if the offer price stays the same.
ReplyDeleteSo Keppel price should drop on Monday, but is it still a bit to early to jump in?
Maybe a decision will be easier made, after 12 August when they know SCI SCM demerger is off or on
DeleteOn the other hand T may be trying to prop up or support the price when T made the offer of buying at $7.35.
ReplyDeletei guess T should be in a position better than anyone to estimate whether the conditions/terms will be met when they made the offer.
It is all like a game to me.
No?
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Yes indeed is a game.
ReplyDeleteIs fun. But not life and death.
This game difficulty level is damn high as u play with the players in the world and they dun restrict beginners or experts, not tier arena.
So I am prepared to play and lose and enjoy some battlea of win.
Good thing is there are many ways to win too.
I already bought Kep at SGD5.16 before I wrote my earlier post. T will not pull out as they have same strategy as Semb. But lower pricing.
ReplyDeleteKeppel is still a loved stock in SG. Even if overseas fund managers pull out, T put in. Or retail will also buy in.
I remember in 2009 crisis, my ex-boss told me Kep tumble below SGD4, and he is going to "hum tam" the shares. 2 or more years later almost 4x cap incr.
Will we be able to see repeat?
Hi Rolf,
DeleteWonderful. I have also bought at 5.17, we are fellow shareholders at same price (almost). No regrets with this
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ReplyDeleteFINALLY FREE FROM HERPES VIRUS
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I have been a herpes carrier for 2 years and I tried every possible means of curing but all of no useful until I saw a health promotion on a herbalist from West Africa who prepares herbal medicines to cure all sorts of diseases including #HSV and many others sickness but look at me today am very much happy and healthy, I'm telling you today don't lose hope keep trying God is with you, If you needs Dr.Chala help contact him on his email dr.chalaherbalhome@gmail.com or you can visit his website on http://drchalaherbalhome.godaddysites.com or https://mywa.link/dr.chalaherbalhome
ReplyDeleteHello everyone i was diagnose of herpes simplex virus for about 8months ,I’ve lost all hope and my doctor said there is no possible cure and I have been taken antiviral to sustain myself I have had several out break from the time I was diagnosed till I got to know about Dr.obudu through a friend who he cured of Herpes . I contacted him and he sent me his herbal remedy which I took as he directed me to do for some days and I went to the hospital after consuming his Herbal medicine and I was confirmed Herpes Negative after 8 months of pains and depression , it was indeed a miracle, Dr.Obudu is a great man, I have heard so much about how he has help lot of people, He also cure ALS, HEPATITIS B, CANCER, HERPES, DIABETES and lots more. if you have any issue you can contact him for help add him on whatsapp +2349023428871. or via email:Email drobuduherbalhome@gmail.com or vist his website https://drobuduherbalhome.wixsite.com/welcometoobuduherbal or visit his facebook page https://www.facebook.com/DR-OBUDU-101779795066025/
ReplyDeleteMy health was horrible before I decided to try the Protocol Of taking Dr. Omola pure herbal mixture. I felt there was no hope for my health and I was to try the Protocol, thinking it wouldn’t work because I have visited so many hospital but same result. However, I was convinced by a Instagram friend to try the herbal medicine because I wanted to get rid of Herpes virus. The herbal mixture that was given to me was really quick and easy to take, within 2 week I was fully cured from Herpes. The herbal medicine really work and I will like to share this great doctor contact with you all email him dr.omolaherbalhome@gmail.com or WhatsApp +2348118116254 you won't regret it, I promise.
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I was diagnosed of HERPES Virus in 2018 and I have tried all I can to get cured but all to know avail, until i saw a post in a health forum about a herbalist man who prepare herbal medication to cure all kind of diseases including HERPES virus, at first i doubted if it was real but decided to give it a try , when i contact this herbalist and he prepared a HERPES herbal cure and sent it to me via UPS delivery company service, when i received this herbal treatment, he gave me step by directions on how to apply it, when i applied it as instructed, i was totally cured of this horrible disease within 18days of usage, i went to the hospital for a test and it was negative. I can tell to the public now that am now free from the horrible disease called herpes, all thanks to Dr.Vincent that is why I want to leave his email address and What's app contact just if you want to contact him for help. you reach this great herbal doctor via his email on (dr.vincentherbalhome6@gmail.com or you can what'sapp his mobile number +2349159559277) or go through his website https://drvincentherbalhom.wixsite.com/welcometodrvincenthe or Facebook page https://lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ffb.me%2FDrvincentherbalhome&h=AT2FjisB3uqtvArvpsPmMiifsP9fohJVhNk0wW9ymSbZvhgb-2vpgrw0WHT1Q7RKaPvp7Lhn2nlped2wmgz6x1FRcK7KnbUuWrZJzPHTmwogUAdq9zVXpSADLo2225ZRm2fy One thing I like about Dr Vincent is honesty. He is very polite with his customers, everything he told me was what he did. His herbal medicine are very affordable, effective, confidential.
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