Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Random thoughts: To sell into strength?

Coincidentally, today I received a message from a friend and a broker. My broker advise me to take profit as STI has hit 3200, but I didn't like the fear tactics deployed comparing to Lehman moment, which I think is pure bullshit. My friend ask me why STI hit 3200, when the economy has not recovered.

I did took a hard look at all my counters and I DO Wish to take some profits off the table, yet, when I examine the results to buy, they are still intact, even using a generic reason of rebalancing didn't really make sense, as counters that run the most doesn't really take up a big chunk of my portfolio. Yup, my bigger bets didn't do as well as my smaller bets. I do want to keep a sizable portfolio vested as I believed my entry price is of value.

I am quite sure the market is due for a breather, I am not too sure if there will be a correction (10 percent drop) and I find it unlikely that the market will go to bear 🐻 status. ( That would properly be my break even price and I will likely hit my head again) and I believe it is even more remote for it to reach March low of 2020. I use no leverage and I have holding power if the worst do happen. 

I know there are many schools of thought, some TA investors might make sure of the volatility and earn the gap. I am not in that school.

Some traders also might see resistance or momentum and want to profit from it.

I am rather the boring guy who buy when I see a gap to valuation, and sell when I believe the growth catalysts are all fulfilled or if it is overvalued due to euphoria. 

Looking at the counters I had, I did trim TianNeng Power from HK, but other than that, I see a few more quarters of good reports, and I also see a fundamental shift in business structure for quite a few companies.

Ya.. I, like what some other investors, say, are the subjective opinioned guy.

I think I can sleep with my though process though, as I suffer no cognitive dissonance. 

Hope u be at peace at your choice and huat. I hope I made the right call.  

7 comments:

  1. Hi SI,

    It is very difficult to time the market. SG is pretty stable. But elsewhere, the big fishes are playing and transferring money here and there without much sense.. causing the market move, but those big players profited. So in order to time, you need to keep up with the non-common sense movements and it is not easy.

    STI at 3200 definitely does not make much sense too.

    I am with you to be at peace with what you have.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rolf, I am quite surprised 3200 is reached so early. My target to offload is 3200. But it is actually only the banks that are running well and recovering to precovid levels. Others are just recovering

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