Random thoughts: Improving memory of your kids

Exams is around the corner.

I realise I share so much on investing but never on learning. So here goes. I was told my earlier post on education/ tuition create a storm at investing note. My apologies, I didn't read what is written there, I share what I know, u need not agree with me

The theory:

Memory is about input, working memory, retention and retrieval. To do well, all 4 links need to addressed. Just doing assessment after assessment without input is useless. Also, if u put your clothes is drawer 1, it is most easily retrieve in drawer 1. Our brain is powerful, it can be transferred and hence if you internalized what you learn, it became cloud, and u can retrieve it anywhere. But, the crux of it is, you need to know at which level is your child is, and hit it at the right spot. 

Area of concerns and assumptions:

1) My passion is always with the weakest pupils, so what I am sharing here is for those who fail their writing.

1) Framework. 

You need to know the compo is made up of Intro, body and ending. I understand many (i.e including tuition centers) spent  significant Amount of time is on mermorizing 回忆開頭，天氣開頭，and 人物開頭。But Personally, for me, I believe Intro doesn't yield marks. For my weak pupils I give it a miss. I think ending is more important. There are 2 parts to a ending. 

My last paragraph is call FATS.

Easy to remember. 

F for feeling 

A for analysis 

T for talk 

S for swear

"Bad ending" example.

我感到很慚愧，F

我不应该捉弄小丽，A

如果我没捉弄她，她就不会哭了。A

我难过地说：“对不起，小丽，我错了。我不是故意的，你原谅我好吗？” T

“经一事长一智”，从此，我再也没有重蹈覆辙。S

It seems simple, but trust me. It's not easy, for the weakest pupil to apply FATS

Remembering FATS is easy. The lines and the actual words  are the tough part.

S can be mermorize wholesale. Just understand the exceptions where it cannot be used. (Third person perspective of someone else in the wrong, etc)

Input stage.

1) Chunking and repetition.

After they understand what the sentence means, 

Read aloud in this way,

经一事，经一事长一智，经一事长一智，从此...

1，12，123，1234

If u are helping your son/ daughter. Cover different parts gradually with your hand, and challenge your kid to continue reading until everything is covered.

Cover everything, recall. Note that it is ok to not remember it. Please don't scold the poor kids. Those weaker pupils are miserable enough. Just ask them to skip and recall whatever they know. 

Now, ask them to look at the paragraph and identify the missing parts.

Recall again.

If still can't. Identify what is missing again.

In my experince, no matter how weak the pupils are, as long as they do it seriously, they will remember it by the second round.

Sound too good to be true? Well, we are just at input, we didn't go into rentention and also the writing of the words.

Rentention:

Simple, 2 rules. Humor and frequency.

Doing it everyday for 1-2 min is more effective than squeezing 2 hours before the exam.

Every time the pupils/ son try to recall, play with them.  Mermorize with them. Impress them with your memory power. If u fumbled, laugh with them.

As for difficult words like "覆辙”， break it into smaller words. 

Give a nonsensical story. The more rubbish it is, the better they remember it. Ask what the top look like? Look like 要，tell them girls 女never make mistakes, so you can remove it. But 复 means repeat. Weaker pupils catch no balls, but tell them nontheless. Tell them sun 日 is wearing a cap and a loose skirt. Bad mistake, cap surely get burnt. That's why is a mistake. 

U go get creative and say your nonsensical story. You can even draw the cap and the sarong skirt. 

Those who tried to learn, despite being the weakest lot of the whole level, can remember how to write the 4 words. 

Of course, rule of freq apply too. Everyday must practice writing these words. 

Wow! It's that easy? Hello. There is retrieval 

Retrieval:

A different picture means they forget what to write. So dun give them 1 picture. Give them a dozen pictures and ask them to choose 1 that can apply that particular ending.

The next day, ask them to choose another picture.

Put to them the subtle change of words in the FATs paragraph.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is just the last paragraph. 

I will post about the rest, the main body. What framework and tricks to help them remember.

Conclusion:

"Practice doesn't make perfect; it made permanent" (David Souza)

Dun ask them to write compo after compo without knowing what exactly to write. They hate it and it became a vicious cycle.

Short update on Yangzijiang

http://splash247.com/worker-dies-crane-collapses-yangzijiang-yard/

YZJ's second worksite accident in 3 months. The key event is operations at Yangzi Yard is suspended. There is no update to SGX though.

Earlier, there is news that YZJ has retrench 2000 workers. However, it's yard are busy with orders stretching to 2019. Is there over-work.? It is it just a freck accident

This might be the first test for Ren's son as CEO. 

Not vested. 

I dun want to sound like sour grape. Because I sold earlier at a song. But personally, the risk reward profile at current levels is rather unattractive.

Discussion on comfort delgro

This post is kind of triggered by B's blog post. There is an robust discussion over there. Some of the ideas throw out also appear in valuebuddies. 

I would just like to share my view on some of the thoughts and comments. I am only interested in the forward looking comments, that's where the fun comes in; as for past numbers, there can be little arguments.

Here goes: (B, no disrespect, come join and poke me too)

1) Grab business model is unsustainable. 

MHO:Yes, it is burning cash. But it can burn cash long enough to create a lot of pain to Comfort-Delgro.

Alibaba, burn cash for a long period of time. But Japan SoftBank dump billions and billions. Amazon laughed at it, since they don't collect fees for its platform and hence its "burning cash". We all know how the battle at China goes. 

Alibaba's Gem is alipay. Although it has now reach such scale that the platform by itself is profitable. When I read Amazon Annual reports, its profits is volatile. I can't the name of mother company of Lazanda (use to), food panda, Zalora. Those platforms are hardly profitable, their business plan is to gain scale to list as a IPO or sell the company (like lazada to Alibaba) it has a venture capitalist business model.

I know u will think that these e-commerce platforms are not actual comparables. I agree. My point is: we might be sure what game plan Uber,Grab has.

2) Comfort delgro business will survive.

IMO: I have no doubts about it. In fact, I think it might not even incur a loss. But I am not sure everyone investment in Confort Delgro will "survive" 

3) Comfort delgro alliance with Uber is a potential catalyst.

IMO: I agree too. However, my thoughts is this. It is just a case of lesser evil. There are several ways the alliance can work. The most logical partnership is uber tap on hardware and comfort tab on software.

Comfort delgro will win, because the idle fleet will reduce. Uber will gain, it will not need a big capital to buy vechicles. But will Confort delgro be able to rent out at attractive rates to Uber? I do think Comfort delgro is in a position of weakness. Remember, Confort used to charge cabbies $140 for newer vehicles. That is 10 years ago when I don't drive and I like to chat with cabbies. The norm is $130 and the better ones up to $140. Now, no one talks about $120 rental. 

Can Comfort bulk rent to Uber at good rates? Hardly. But it is defintely better have them idling, since vehicles  are depreciating assets of 7-8 years. 

And I  have not go into the handicap of comfort. I felt they are really shortchanged in this competition. They are like going into the boxing ring with both legs and hands chained. If I drive Uber, I can renew a 10 years old car for 10 years coe. If cabbies' info to me is accurate, taxis are up for scrap in 7 years. Max renewability is 9 years.

If I already have a car, I dun even have to rent and I can drive for Uber. Also, as mention in previous post, taxi is a full time job. Once u hire the car, u need to pay everyday. Drivers might not like this kind of rigid arrangement. I know a few friends who toogle between Grab and Uber to earn extra bucks depending on which have better incentive, during a particular period. 

If they are busy, or have a sub-contractor job or free-lance work, they just need to do nothing. Don't rent the car and no rent is required. So the competition is not on rates alone, if u know, u can say "quality of worklife"

4)  Regulation tightening is another catalyst 

Not a lot of people talk about this. As I have said, the competition is really unfair. Now all drivers need vocational liscenses. I believe Comfort Delgro will try its best to evolve its business plan as its tried to arm twist the regulators. 

For one, I believe Delgro is already making more fleasible rental arrangement. As for rates, it will also move towards more equilibrium, I will not bet it will happen anytime soon due to point no.1 

For various safety reasons, the cost of private hire could increase if the regulators start to set the conditions where cars can be used to private hire. The supply of drivers has actually increased tremendously (as a forummer in valuebuddies mention) because it has made freelance taxi-Ing sexy. Confort might be able to capture this "enlarged pie" when equilibrium happen, especially if they can come up with really flexible plans, and regulation start to clamp down on the "anyone also goes" 

5) Uber and Grab show their trump card earlier

IMO: Grab/ Uber is not a taxi company and neither is it interested in becoming one. I am not sure what it's game plan? IPO? Venture capitalist? Logistics ? 

When their trump card is out in the open. Delgro will fight a easier war

Conclusion:

Am I vested: No

Am I tempted: Yes 

Random thoughts: Of respect and happiness

Just my weekend musings:

There are 2 ways to happiness.

One is to accept current situation. 

Second, is to pursuit what u want.

My observation is there are many seemingly poor or "unfortunate" people who are happy, because they accept their bad set of cards. There are many energetic people with a goal in their life and passionate about their life. 

Respect, what do you respect? I didn't ask who.

1) Character- e.g. Resilence, wit etc

2) Money 

3) Power - Position of authority, etc

I will be honest, I respect all three to varying degree. I don't just respect character. Neither are they mutually exclusive.

Are u happy when people show u respect. I know I do. But while I am not rich nor powerful, I am also not poor or without any "position", so I use this as a reminder not to get it in my head. I know sooner or later, my "position" will be gone, I might be richer or poorer. 

But I know if I don't respect myself, I won't be happy. 

I can respect my achievement, the wealth I accumulate and my character. As I say, I respect all three to varying degree. But I know the three are not equal. 

If I don't have wealth, position, or character I can accept or pursuit/ develop.

2 sad situations.

1) You cannot accept but also don't pursuit. You play victim.

2) You pursuit and pursuit and realise the respect you gotten is not the highest yield of happiness 

Random thoughts: This just makes me happy, dun know why.

I have drawing plenty of comic strips for my pupils to help them remember vocab. During the holiday, I saw 1 pupil who drew very well.

I ask her if she is willing to draw for the class, I gave the storyline, she draw. She says ok. 

Guess which one is mine ? 

 

 

I ask another pupil, which one is nicer. Knowing the one with red ink is mine, he said "Both are nice" 

Got future, high EQ! But Liar .... LOL

Random thoughts: Of Swordplay, Pedagogy and Investment

What does these have in similar? 

They have many forms, but at its core and substance, more will converge, and there is a return to basic.

One of my favourite swordplay movie, 《蕭十三郎的劍》，about 2 top martial art experts, sharing their essence of skill before duet. The essence of one is "flow and change" and the essence of the other is "basic" yet killing moves.

It's a fun and insightful show. The one with basic moves wins. I makes me think a lot about teaching. There is so many pedagogies, ICT-infused lesson, collaborative learning, inquiry-based learning, game-based learning etc. All flavors of the month before. 

Martial Art is to "kill" otherwise it becomes a performance. Pedagogies is to let people "learn better" otherwise it become a "show"

Different pedagogies has different requirements and different entry points and different resources required. But I realise when u go to the basic (pupil) and adapt according their needs (flow and change) a lot of things converge. The essence of ICT- infused lesson, collaborative learning, feedbacks etc, will converge. It is basic and yet effective. 

So where is the similarities to investment, and what should we be concerned with 

Bought Raffles Medical

Raffles Medical for 2 quarters, has lost it shine as a grower. Both revenue and Profits were flat.

Before this, it was a darling because of the below:

Very consistent, isn't it? 

Now, with earnings stagnating, it show the share price hit a 52-week low recently.

 

 

An almost 1/3 fall from its peak. 

If u read around, there are many reports that state how its business might worsen. Let me summarize (Parrot):

1) Holland V Medical is fully leased but there is no spike in revenue, that means the patient load is worse than expected.

2) China expansion will worsen earning for the next 3 years. Management guided that hospital will turn around after 3 years.

3) My simple and quick Google of cancer doctors, review or doctors show names thrown out mainly from parkway and mount Alvernia. But beside these 2 quarters, their revenue is still on a good uptrend, so I will give them the benefit of doubt that the tactic to go medical services aka clinic is a good one.

So, now it is not just a "non-grower" but also a falling knife.

The reason for buying is more qualitative than quantitive. I remember referring the international SOS for reference to hospital to visit if there is emergency, when bring pupils for overseas trip in Nanjing. I believe many people relied on international SOS for reference for medical treatment because China local hospitals are really quite different from those u find in Singapore outside Shanghai. 

Next, I saw the rapid expansion of medical services aka clinic network across Singapore. These will serve as fillers to send reference to hospital. Why is this still not happening in the 2 quarters no.? I am not sure, but many of these clinics are new. Lot 1 clinic has its crowd. 

I also like the fact that past year expansions did

Not strain the balance sheet. 

I am not sure if this price is cheap, honestly. I however, is willing to accept lower earnings (but not zero profits) as they expand, and accumulate as the price go lower. Singapore market must stay strong.

The money used to buy Raffles came from some liquidation of Silverlake axis. So my cash holding is still 60%. Silverlake is still my biggest holding.