Value for money is easier to understand or easier to come to an consensus of what it mean. But then, it could already have 4 interpretations:
1) price tag of $1, I get it for 50 cents during a sale. Groupon deals are value for money. More applicable to my wife.
2) something is intrinsically worth $1, I get it lower than $1. Stocks that will grow or at a discount to p/b. more applicable to investors
3) relative comparison, a pair of shoes that cost $100 is more value for money than $50 because it is more comfortable and last more than twice as long. More applicable to atas people who are shrew consumers.
4) serve a need, I wanted a BMW because it tells people I arrived. ATAS x2 people
Value of money?
What money buys. I always tell my pupils money has no value until it is spent. What is the value of $10 note? Is it $10? Nope, it is a high class coffee, or it can be a packet of seeds for poor rural people to grow. Which has a higher value of money?
Lets push this a bit? How much money so that u feel rich? Enough to stop work? Enough to do whatever u work? More money means more options, u can never do whatever u want unless u are filthy rich.
During my holiday, I feel rich, I didn't have to work, can afford to wake up late, talk a walk and go for breakfast follow by newspaper.
When my leave ends, and I start working like a dog, I felt poor, a slave to salary again. So I tried something out of the blue. I wake up half an hour earlier, went for breakfast at hawker before I start my day, given I am a fast eater, I can eat, read newspaper and see life passes by in the wee morning of the day. See those office girls gearing up for work, see those social escorts getting off work, see old lady selling tissue papers and touting them to FTs,
Saw the FT opening her wallet to get tissue, bringing a surprise smile to the old lady. Who says FTs is a bad thing?
Feeling richer just by waking up earlier by half an hour, value for money or value of money?
Saturday, March 29, 2014
A quick look at Venture
I was first alerted to Venture from a blogger's comment at ASSI. He mention about Venture, Hotung and Singpost. I have looked at SIngpost, didn't like Hotung business model (personal preference), so I decide to look at Venture.
I saw Venture has sustained a 50 cents dividend since 2005 and has a unbroken dividend records since 1993.
I then went further to look at its balance sheet. It is net cash company.
A renowned company that is net cash and is paying a yield of 6.7% at current price. Well, that really pips my interest.
First, some numbers.
It is not difficult to see why Venture's price is a shade of its formal glory days.
It is paying more than its earning of 47 cents in 2013. It is definitely not sustainable.
But I am not looking at Venture as a stalwart or slow grower (SPH or Singpost), but rather a cyclical play, just like YZJ and Golden Agri.
It is having +ve FCF for most of the years, the average of 13 years is 145 million, enough to pay the 50 cents dividends.
47 cents EPS is the lowest in its 13 years history!
Which begs the most important question, is Venture a has been? Just like Creative? Or could it recover? It you think it can recover, current valuation is hardly demanding. Forget about its glorious day, its average EPS is 70 cents, lets just take 60 cents as a target for the next 3-5 years. It will might be able to revert back to 55 cents dividend given out in 2011 and 2012.
I was reading their AR, jolting down notes about their products and customers. I did this by working backwards till 2009. I would go further back if I have the time. It seems 2009 is a watershed year, not because of the GFC but because that is the year the strategic shift from OEM to ODM gathers pace. Margin improve from the 4+ % in 2008 and 2009 to the 5-6% till now, the better years has past Venture.
Reading its ARs, Venture has been able to develop new products and launched them over the years, although earnings is horrible, but it seem their competencies and capabilities are intact. Almost every year from 2009, phrases like "gain new customers" and "gain market share" can be seen, although the numbers did not show the positive impact of these positive development. Most of the time, they do seem to deliver what they set to do, e.g. 2009-2010, they mention about developmental project on retail solutions, pay system, and in 2012-2013, they did roll out the POS products and the revenue did improve. I believe the POS products should be under the segment of retail solutions and industry. Of course, there are misses too, like they mention they make inroads into aerospace with an European company, but never heard of it since.
If capabilities is not an issue, how about costs? That seems to be a valid concern, since its margin has been going down for the past 3 years already. There are research report claiming Venture is on the cusp of recovery, as it has 4 sequential improving quarters in 2013. While, that is good news, I would usually read reports with a pinch of salt. 2H is traditional stronger.
Venture has been dubbed the bellwether of electronics industry in Singapore, and export numbers of electronics from Singapore is hardly strong since 2010, with the exception of 2012 Feb. (SOurce: IE singapore). SIngapore makes up 25% to 30% of its revenue.
Other risk or concerns include the fact the its CEO is already 72, there is risk of succession plan going wrong. Forummer from valuebuddies also highlighted Aberdeen constant selling in 2013. I would not be too concerned though, since Aberdeen has been net buyers in 2012, I guess some buying and selling in adjustment to Funds requirement is inevitable.
Assuming the Venture is able to recover, so what would be a good price to enter?
I would think using DCF of 3% growth and 9% discount as fair and 2% growth and 10% discount as conservative.
The price range: $5.3 to $7 (Both upper and lower price has MOS of 20% applied)
I welcome discussions to uncover further blind spots. The valuation would not apply if you think Venture will not recover, you should not touch it even if it goes to $5.3.
I saw Venture has sustained a 50 cents dividend since 2005 and has a unbroken dividend records since 1993.
I then went further to look at its balance sheet. It is net cash company.
A renowned company that is net cash and is paying a yield of 6.7% at current price. Well, that really pips my interest.
First, some numbers.
It is not difficult to see why Venture's price is a shade of its formal glory days.
It is paying more than its earning of 47 cents in 2013. It is definitely not sustainable.
But I am not looking at Venture as a stalwart or slow grower (SPH or Singpost), but rather a cyclical play, just like YZJ and Golden Agri.
It is having +ve FCF for most of the years, the average of 13 years is 145 million, enough to pay the 50 cents dividends.
47 cents EPS is the lowest in its 13 years history!
Which begs the most important question, is Venture a has been? Just like Creative? Or could it recover? It you think it can recover, current valuation is hardly demanding. Forget about its glorious day, its average EPS is 70 cents, lets just take 60 cents as a target for the next 3-5 years. It will might be able to revert back to 55 cents dividend given out in 2011 and 2012.
I was reading their AR, jolting down notes about their products and customers. I did this by working backwards till 2009. I would go further back if I have the time. It seems 2009 is a watershed year, not because of the GFC but because that is the year the strategic shift from OEM to ODM gathers pace. Margin improve from the 4+ % in 2008 and 2009 to the 5-6% till now, the better years has past Venture.
Reading its ARs, Venture has been able to develop new products and launched them over the years, although earnings is horrible, but it seem their competencies and capabilities are intact. Almost every year from 2009, phrases like "gain new customers" and "gain market share" can be seen, although the numbers did not show the positive impact of these positive development. Most of the time, they do seem to deliver what they set to do, e.g. 2009-2010, they mention about developmental project on retail solutions, pay system, and in 2012-2013, they did roll out the POS products and the revenue did improve. I believe the POS products should be under the segment of retail solutions and industry. Of course, there are misses too, like they mention they make inroads into aerospace with an European company, but never heard of it since.
If capabilities is not an issue, how about costs? That seems to be a valid concern, since its margin has been going down for the past 3 years already. There are research report claiming Venture is on the cusp of recovery, as it has 4 sequential improving quarters in 2013. While, that is good news, I would usually read reports with a pinch of salt. 2H is traditional stronger.
Venture has been dubbed the bellwether of electronics industry in Singapore, and export numbers of electronics from Singapore is hardly strong since 2010, with the exception of 2012 Feb. (SOurce: IE singapore). SIngapore makes up 25% to 30% of its revenue.
Other risk or concerns include the fact the its CEO is already 72, there is risk of succession plan going wrong. Forummer from valuebuddies also highlighted Aberdeen constant selling in 2013. I would not be too concerned though, since Aberdeen has been net buyers in 2012, I guess some buying and selling in adjustment to Funds requirement is inevitable.
Assuming the Venture is able to recover, so what would be a good price to enter?
I would think using DCF of 3% growth and 9% discount as fair and 2% growth and 10% discount as conservative.
The price range: $5.3 to $7 (Both upper and lower price has MOS of 20% applied)
I welcome discussions to uncover further blind spots. The valuation would not apply if you think Venture will not recover, you should not touch it even if it goes to $5.3.
Friday, March 21, 2014
Random thoughts: money and news
I have always been skeptical about analyst reports. Don't get me wrong, analyst reports are useful, and there are many with a lot of details and insights, but that is where the use end, one shouldn't read further into the buy or sell call or their target prices.
We need to understand that not all analyst reports are self-initiated, some are paid to do the reports.
I was rather surprised with the money section of today ST. There is only 2 articles on properties, whereas it is usually dominated by property news. It is not hard to see why. Singaporeans at large are attuned to property investing rather than companies investing. Many will think of property investment as a foolproof investment whereas if u mention stocks, they will either think of u as a guru or a gambler. ( this is my gut feel when communicating with many colleagues am friends, only 2-4 can exchange pointers on equity investing, but the "whole world" can talk about property investing. I wonder the taper off property news got anything to do with property cooling.
I read an article on a senior executive of bloomberg asking the journalists in china to focus on financial news and not others, as investigating journalism might not be useful in terms of generating sales on its terminal. They have previously run a article on how rich xi jinping is. Shortly after, there is a directive to state enterprise to stop subscribing to bloomberg terminals.
So, when I read, I always have the question: is this what they want us to know, or is this what happen?
But am I advocate total freedom of speech? No. Taiwan news is too dividing and sensational, US cannot stop snowden unless he stop his own leaks.
We just have to be more discerning, and encourage others to be critical thinker too. Be critical in our thinking, but not on people, we always tend to overshoot in our critiques of establishment, sometime to the extend of being unfair.
We need to understand that not all analyst reports are self-initiated, some are paid to do the reports.
I was rather surprised with the money section of today ST. There is only 2 articles on properties, whereas it is usually dominated by property news. It is not hard to see why. Singaporeans at large are attuned to property investing rather than companies investing. Many will think of property investment as a foolproof investment whereas if u mention stocks, they will either think of u as a guru or a gambler. ( this is my gut feel when communicating with many colleagues am friends, only 2-4 can exchange pointers on equity investing, but the "whole world" can talk about property investing. I wonder the taper off property news got anything to do with property cooling.
I read an article on a senior executive of bloomberg asking the journalists in china to focus on financial news and not others, as investigating journalism might not be useful in terms of generating sales on its terminal. They have previously run a article on how rich xi jinping is. Shortly after, there is a directive to state enterprise to stop subscribing to bloomberg terminals.
So, when I read, I always have the question: is this what they want us to know, or is this what happen?
But am I advocate total freedom of speech? No. Taiwan news is too dividing and sensational, US cannot stop snowden unless he stop his own leaks.
We just have to be more discerning, and encourage others to be critical thinker too. Be critical in our thinking, but not on people, we always tend to overshoot in our critiques of establishment, sometime to the extend of being unfair.
Random thoughts: superstitious me
Random thoughts series has nothing to do with investment or finance.
What I will write will sound real silly or superstitious to people, if u are offended by superstitious practices or people, stop reading now.
When my eyes twitch non-stop for a day, something bad will happen. Call me superstitious but it has 99% accuracy since I am 18.
Sometime when it didn't twitch that badly, the unlucky stuff can be just I cut myself, during army times, or fall sick.
The few times it twitch non-stop, and the things that followed really made me feel quite miserable.
I am a free-thinker, and I understand what come may, just take it in its stride. But when the unfortunate hits, it usually get to me quite badly.
I did told people about this weird habit I have, they always say I didn't have enough sleep or I am stressed. But as I said, its 99% accurate. I know some will say its对号入座, meaning because I think about it, that's why I relate it that way, and its just a coincidence . I am not lying when I think the last 2 time it happen, the 2 unfortunate incidents could have been avoided if not for 5-7 coincidences leading up to it. U have to be really sway, for things to turn out that way.
Predict misfortune but no way of stopping it, but it is a good thing to be mentally and emotional prepared. So it is a good thing? Nope, I rather not want that, it is a curse.
There was once in my workplace when something very important is lost. The consequence of that can be really serious. The staff involved is almost in tears, and given I am her supervisor I would Kena jialat jialat too. She keep asking me how how, super panicky, I told her relax, if something that bad is going to happen, that is no way my eyes will not twitch. She is not reassured and told me i have a weird way of comforting people. True enough, that important document was found shortly.
By the way, losing money in the stock market didn't count. I am ready for that when I invest, am will be calm even ifs counter fall 50%, I always thought losing money is the least sway thing la, but it was never about losing money, but something that will
Impact me quite deeply.
It sound like super power, isn't it? But it's one thing I would rather not have. What did I say 99%. There was once in my younger days, I keep telling people that I have this weird "power" which is 100% accurate ( then it was 100%accurate, scary right), and like because I told a lot of people about it, I seem to lose that ability for a while. They are times I really sway but my eyes never twitch and my eyes twitch an nothing happen. I am happy, good riddance, I can take it if something sway happen, but I can't stand the waiting for it to happen part, I dun usually have to wait long though. But a few years back, it is 100% accurate again. I told a lot of people about it, thinking that it will go away, but nope, this time round it doesn't work.
Superstitious me!! But I find this ability to know something bad is going to happen a curse!! Because that something bad happening doesn't have to happen to me, but will affect me nonetheless.
I have been twitching non- stop for 2 days already. I think I am down on luck? The super scary thing is I actually hit second prize for 4D for $1000!!! On Wednesday. I very seldom bet, ) maybe less than 5 times in a year?) but I was bored waiting for my wife the other day and remember seeing my birth date appear in two cars' plate no on the same day. I just got my bonus and think hey, just try me luck lor. I didn't even bother to check until the next day and I couldn't believe my eyes. How can I be lucky and sway the same time??!!
Maybe by blogging about it and let hundreds know will make it go away again. Hahahaha
Sorry if I offend anyone with my superstitious thoughts. But my eyes are still twitching as I blog...
What I will write will sound real silly or superstitious to people, if u are offended by superstitious practices or people, stop reading now.
When my eyes twitch non-stop for a day, something bad will happen. Call me superstitious but it has 99% accuracy since I am 18.
Sometime when it didn't twitch that badly, the unlucky stuff can be just I cut myself, during army times, or fall sick.
The few times it twitch non-stop, and the things that followed really made me feel quite miserable.
I am a free-thinker, and I understand what come may, just take it in its stride. But when the unfortunate hits, it usually get to me quite badly.
I did told people about this weird habit I have, they always say I didn't have enough sleep or I am stressed. But as I said, its 99% accurate. I know some will say its对号入座, meaning because I think about it, that's why I relate it that way, and its just a coincidence . I am not lying when I think the last 2 time it happen, the 2 unfortunate incidents could have been avoided if not for 5-7 coincidences leading up to it. U have to be really sway, for things to turn out that way.
Predict misfortune but no way of stopping it, but it is a good thing to be mentally and emotional prepared. So it is a good thing? Nope, I rather not want that, it is a curse.
There was once in my workplace when something very important is lost. The consequence of that can be really serious. The staff involved is almost in tears, and given I am her supervisor I would Kena jialat jialat too. She keep asking me how how, super panicky, I told her relax, if something that bad is going to happen, that is no way my eyes will not twitch. She is not reassured and told me i have a weird way of comforting people. True enough, that important document was found shortly.
By the way, losing money in the stock market didn't count. I am ready for that when I invest, am will be calm even ifs counter fall 50%, I always thought losing money is the least sway thing la, but it was never about losing money, but something that will
Impact me quite deeply.
It sound like super power, isn't it? But it's one thing I would rather not have. What did I say 99%. There was once in my younger days, I keep telling people that I have this weird "power" which is 100% accurate ( then it was 100%accurate, scary right), and like because I told a lot of people about it, I seem to lose that ability for a while. They are times I really sway but my eyes never twitch and my eyes twitch an nothing happen. I am happy, good riddance, I can take it if something sway happen, but I can't stand the waiting for it to happen part, I dun usually have to wait long though. But a few years back, it is 100% accurate again. I told a lot of people about it, thinking that it will go away, but nope, this time round it doesn't work.
Superstitious me!! But I find this ability to know something bad is going to happen a curse!! Because that something bad happening doesn't have to happen to me, but will affect me nonetheless.
I have been twitching non- stop for 2 days already. I think I am down on luck? The super scary thing is I actually hit second prize for 4D for $1000!!! On Wednesday. I very seldom bet, ) maybe less than 5 times in a year?) but I was bored waiting for my wife the other day and remember seeing my birth date appear in two cars' plate no on the same day. I just got my bonus and think hey, just try me luck lor. I didn't even bother to check until the next day and I couldn't believe my eyes. How can I be lucky and sway the same time??!!
Maybe by blogging about it and let hundreds know will make it go away again. Hahahaha
Sorry if I offend anyone with my superstitious thoughts. But my eyes are still twitching as I blog...
Monday, March 17, 2014
Quick look at SIngpost
Here is a short analysis of SIngpost.
Not vested, but interested to accumulate at the right price. This is a follow up from my previous post
Here are some numbers:
While margin is getting worse, do note that revenue and OP of the cursed mail sector is not falling off a cliff, it is not even on a continuous decline. Net profits is falling, but that did not tell the full story, volume and revenue are still strong.
Look at FCF, the av. for 9 years is 160 mio. The weakest year of 130 mio is still enough to sustain the 6.5 cents DPS. 6.5 DPS need 120 mio. Dividend is only 75% of av. DPU. My mistake about it being less than 70% in my earlier post.
Why am I looking at it again?
While the logistic and retail sector margin is still depressed, I believe their strategy of managing e-commerce for renowned brands like Adidas is the right strategy without significantly increasing costs, they have their warehouse capability to house Adidas or any other brands' inventories.
I consider Singpost mail business a monopoly. Although anyone can send up a mail business when the sector is liberalized years ago, the fact that no one come in for the bite is a good outcome. It means its monopoly status is supported by market circumstances, not by regulation. Regulation is risky business when the monopoly rights get taken away, there is no such nasty surprise.
How much to pay for a monopoly? For SGX and SPH, I need to use 6-7% discount rate to justify current prices. For SIngpost?
9% discount rate and a reasonable 3% growth, will give a DCF valuation of $1.4. If I apply 20% MOS, then the right price to enter will be $1.12.
I don't really see why SIngpost is trading at a higher discount to other monopoly, maybe because SPH has found retail property segment for growth, and SGX has the derivatives business as well as the upswing of trading as growth. In terms of yield, SIngpost is also slightly higher than SGX, and is almost 4.8% at current price.
If you see Singpost struggling with logistic, and this is the best you can get. You get fair value, if you think logistic and retail can provide the growth, any southward movement of price will only make the counter more attractive.
I definitely will not wait till $1.12 to enter. As for what price, hmm... depends on my wallet and my bonus, and where my family want to go for holiday... hahaha
Not vested, but interested to accumulate at the right price. This is a follow up from my previous post
Here are some numbers:
While margin is getting worse, do note that revenue and OP of the cursed mail sector is not falling off a cliff, it is not even on a continuous decline. Net profits is falling, but that did not tell the full story, volume and revenue are still strong.
Look at FCF, the av. for 9 years is 160 mio. The weakest year of 130 mio is still enough to sustain the 6.5 cents DPS. 6.5 DPS need 120 mio. Dividend is only 75% of av. DPU. My mistake about it being less than 70% in my earlier post.
Why am I looking at it again?
While the logistic and retail sector margin is still depressed, I believe their strategy of managing e-commerce for renowned brands like Adidas is the right strategy without significantly increasing costs, they have their warehouse capability to house Adidas or any other brands' inventories.
I consider Singpost mail business a monopoly. Although anyone can send up a mail business when the sector is liberalized years ago, the fact that no one come in for the bite is a good outcome. It means its monopoly status is supported by market circumstances, not by regulation. Regulation is risky business when the monopoly rights get taken away, there is no such nasty surprise.
How much to pay for a monopoly? For SGX and SPH, I need to use 6-7% discount rate to justify current prices. For SIngpost?
9% discount rate and a reasonable 3% growth, will give a DCF valuation of $1.4. If I apply 20% MOS, then the right price to enter will be $1.12.
I don't really see why SIngpost is trading at a higher discount to other monopoly, maybe because SPH has found retail property segment for growth, and SGX has the derivatives business as well as the upswing of trading as growth. In terms of yield, SIngpost is also slightly higher than SGX, and is almost 4.8% at current price.
If you see Singpost struggling with logistic, and this is the best you can get. You get fair value, if you think logistic and retail can provide the growth, any southward movement of price will only make the counter more attractive.
I definitely will not wait till $1.12 to enter. As for what price, hmm... depends on my wallet and my bonus, and where my family want to go for holiday... hahaha
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Random thoughts: my advice for my MIL
Just a week ago, my mum in law told me she is going to sell her loss making SIA (bought at $14) to buy OCBC. M reaction is: huh? Why?
Her answer: OCBC won't collapse, just take dividends, her another daughter buying, because the price has fallen so much.
My reply: OCBC has fallen because market think they are paying too much for wing hang. If the deal fail, the price might rebound, but if the deal goes through, there might be further weakness, it's like buying big -small, although interest rate rising is generally a good thing for strong local banks, but the property sector is cooling and property loans might not grow as strongly. I say there are other options if not collapsing and dividends are your only 2 considerations. If u want a kick from capital growth, then I have no comments about OCBC.
She think for a while, call her daughter and told her about what I said, her daughter reply: already bought, weakness is only short term.
I told her in the long run, it might be the case, but if u just want to feed on dividends, u might be just paying yourself dividends like what happen when SIA declare dividends of $1 sometime back. She ask me, what to buy?
I said Singpost, SPH, SAT and SGX all give better dividends and is in the category of very unlikely to collapse.
Then she continue:"u ask me to sold sing post". I said "sold with good profits, is different. There is doubts about their expansion plan then, on hindsight, it is now showing better chances of succeeding, anyway your sale price is still higher than current price, u loss nothing from buying back."
Then the question again, what to buy? I told her those companies I mention are fairly valued, there is no margin of safety from any market shock, why not wait for a correction?
She said when market correct, she will
Be too scared to buy, then market run again, waste time. She just want dividend. How about buying all 4 counters? How much to buy huh?
I said whoa wait wait, u need to have money and ammo to av. Down, lets not over commit. If u must buy now, just buy 1 and buy small.
She ask which one?
I said singpost.
She said ok. How much to buy? I say, er ... How much u intent to buy? Assume U spread out to buy all 4 counters, just spend 1/8 of your money la. U want to be careful, just use 1/12.
She said ok. She proceed to buy 10 lots of singpost, then think, aiya just get 20 la. I says relax la, u retired Liao, market is always there la.
Today she look at the price, hmm fallen by 2 cents, can get more? I say, if fall further, maybe yes.
I told her based on my calculation, there is some Mos if singpost goes to 1.10. She says I wait long long...
Actually a bit disappoint she never ask why I choose singpost over others. So I continue: singpost is the only one among the 4 that has the lowest payout ratio in terms of FCF. It is always below 70% with the exception of 1 year, where they pay more than what they earned. I know SPH and the rest are paying close to 90% of FCF or earnings
For years. There is no buffer if earnings suffered. In terms of growth, singpost diversification into logistic and e-commerce is still without a verdict and with T4 and T5, SAT Seem a better bet, just as we can bet on SGX recovering from the low trading vol that is way below average. Then I remembered a bird in hand is better than 2 birds in the bushes. SPH my MIL already has it, and she had them cheap, at below $4 for donkey years.
She look at me, nodding away, although I doubts she understand. So anyway, another reason I can think of is, if sgx, singpost, and SATs all fall 5% tomorrow, which will I get? My answer is singpost. If all fall 10%? I will get SGX. Why? I dun know, I want my port to have less cyclicals and rely less on trusts and reits
Her answer: OCBC won't collapse, just take dividends, her another daughter buying, because the price has fallen so much.
My reply: OCBC has fallen because market think they are paying too much for wing hang. If the deal fail, the price might rebound, but if the deal goes through, there might be further weakness, it's like buying big -small, although interest rate rising is generally a good thing for strong local banks, but the property sector is cooling and property loans might not grow as strongly. I say there are other options if not collapsing and dividends are your only 2 considerations. If u want a kick from capital growth, then I have no comments about OCBC.
She think for a while, call her daughter and told her about what I said, her daughter reply: already bought, weakness is only short term.
I told her in the long run, it might be the case, but if u just want to feed on dividends, u might be just paying yourself dividends like what happen when SIA declare dividends of $1 sometime back. She ask me, what to buy?
I said Singpost, SPH, SAT and SGX all give better dividends and is in the category of very unlikely to collapse.
Then she continue:"u ask me to sold sing post". I said "sold with good profits, is different. There is doubts about their expansion plan then, on hindsight, it is now showing better chances of succeeding, anyway your sale price is still higher than current price, u loss nothing from buying back."
Then the question again, what to buy? I told her those companies I mention are fairly valued, there is no margin of safety from any market shock, why not wait for a correction?
She said when market correct, she will
Be too scared to buy, then market run again, waste time. She just want dividend. How about buying all 4 counters? How much to buy huh?
I said whoa wait wait, u need to have money and ammo to av. Down, lets not over commit. If u must buy now, just buy 1 and buy small.
She ask which one?
I said singpost.
She said ok. How much to buy? I say, er ... How much u intent to buy? Assume U spread out to buy all 4 counters, just spend 1/8 of your money la. U want to be careful, just use 1/12.
She said ok. She proceed to buy 10 lots of singpost, then think, aiya just get 20 la. I says relax la, u retired Liao, market is always there la.
Today she look at the price, hmm fallen by 2 cents, can get more? I say, if fall further, maybe yes.
I told her based on my calculation, there is some Mos if singpost goes to 1.10. She says I wait long long...
Actually a bit disappoint she never ask why I choose singpost over others. So I continue: singpost is the only one among the 4 that has the lowest payout ratio in terms of FCF. It is always below 70% with the exception of 1 year, where they pay more than what they earned. I know SPH and the rest are paying close to 90% of FCF or earnings
For years. There is no buffer if earnings suffered. In terms of growth, singpost diversification into logistic and e-commerce is still without a verdict and with T4 and T5, SAT Seem a better bet, just as we can bet on SGX recovering from the low trading vol that is way below average. Then I remembered a bird in hand is better than 2 birds in the bushes. SPH my MIL already has it, and she had them cheap, at below $4 for donkey years.
She look at me, nodding away, although I doubts she understand. So anyway, another reason I can think of is, if sgx, singpost, and SATs all fall 5% tomorrow, which will I get? My answer is singpost. If all fall 10%? I will get SGX. Why? I dun know, I want my port to have less cyclicals and rely less on trusts and reits
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Random thoughts: interviews
I just went for an interview for a opening of a new appointment. My prospective supervisor spent quite a bit of time preparing me, to the extend that I fell like I am doing 10 years series. I really appreciate her efforts while I doubt her approach.
Interview came, I reminded myself to frame my conversation according to the pointers my supervisor gave me, so that I will not disappoint her, but I mentally told myself not to say anything that I believe is untrue, or I dun believe in.
So well, the interview went well initially, all questions were spot on, all except the last. I have actually thought through that particular question in my work, so I gave my honest view. Apparently, my future big bosses does not agree with me. She suggest something else, which I felt is beautiful in theory but doesn't work on the ground. I did mention every environment is different, but given the circumstances I was in, I did a right call. So then she ask me to read up. Roll eyes in my heart. Another scholar...
I am not sure I understand her correctly, but to me, using investment terms, I believe in buying term
Insurance and investing the rest, keeping the two separated. She believe in integration, so ILP is a great product. Well, doesn't really matter I I fail the interview, opportunities will come my way again.
Come back to the point what is the purpose of the Interview. I went for 3 interviews in my life, one for my job, one for a scholarship, another was this. When I go for my job Interview, I wasn't sure if that is the job for me, so I decided to give my most honest answers, and I think if my honest answers don't land me the job, I might not be suitable anyway.
I did the same for the scholarship interview and fail quite badly. I realized you only speak your mind when u have many options, I consider myself very lucky that I do not have to pander to people's standard answers just to pass interviews. I rather prepare well but speak my honest view.
For people who are desperate for a job, I realized honesty could be a luxury too.
Anyway, how can one gauge my capabilities through one interview? Why do they not want to see more concrete proof? How accurate is a statement anyway?
Rat race. A reminder of one of the many reasons why I strive for financial freedom.
Interview came, I reminded myself to frame my conversation according to the pointers my supervisor gave me, so that I will not disappoint her, but I mentally told myself not to say anything that I believe is untrue, or I dun believe in.
So well, the interview went well initially, all questions were spot on, all except the last. I have actually thought through that particular question in my work, so I gave my honest view. Apparently, my future big bosses does not agree with me. She suggest something else, which I felt is beautiful in theory but doesn't work on the ground. I did mention every environment is different, but given the circumstances I was in, I did a right call. So then she ask me to read up. Roll eyes in my heart. Another scholar...
I am not sure I understand her correctly, but to me, using investment terms, I believe in buying term
Insurance and investing the rest, keeping the two separated. She believe in integration, so ILP is a great product. Well, doesn't really matter I I fail the interview, opportunities will come my way again.
Come back to the point what is the purpose of the Interview. I went for 3 interviews in my life, one for my job, one for a scholarship, another was this. When I go for my job Interview, I wasn't sure if that is the job for me, so I decided to give my most honest answers, and I think if my honest answers don't land me the job, I might not be suitable anyway.
I did the same for the scholarship interview and fail quite badly. I realized you only speak your mind when u have many options, I consider myself very lucky that I do not have to pander to people's standard answers just to pass interviews. I rather prepare well but speak my honest view.
For people who are desperate for a job, I realized honesty could be a luxury too.
Anyway, how can one gauge my capabilities through one interview? Why do they not want to see more concrete proof? How accurate is a statement anyway?
Rat race. A reminder of one of the many reasons why I strive for financial freedom.
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