## Wednesday, December 19, 2012

### Important calculation

Inventory t/o

 Balance Sheet Line Item Amount Cost of goods sold \$4,075,000 Direct materials expense \$1,550,000 Raw materials inventory \$388,000 Total inventory \$815,000

To calculate total inventory turnover, the accounting staff creates the following calculation:

\$4,075,000 Cost of Goods Sold
--------------------------------------   =   5 Turns Per Year
\$815,000 Inventory

To determine the number of days of inventory on hand, they divide the number of turns per year into 365 days, as follows:

Cost of Goods Sold
365 /    -----------------------
Inventory

=

\$4,075,000 Cost of Goods
365 / ---------------------------------
\$815,000 Inventory

= 73 Days of inventory

CCC=# days between disbursing cash and collecting cash in connection with undertaking a discrete unit of operations.
=Inventory conversion period  +Receivables conversion period  –Payables conversion period
=Avg. Inventory

COGS / 365
+Avg. Accounts Receivable

Credit Sales / 365
–Avg. Accounts Payable

Purchases / 365

### readings from common stocks and uncommon profits

Different from Warren, looking for that growth stock, stock that has a propensity to grow.

15 points to look at:

1) Earning visibility for next 2-3 years. 2 years at least

2) Earning visibility for the long term. (Track records, not just the numbers, but the timing of execution, etc)

3) Research and development of new products (Property, does it matter? High end and lower end)

4) Sales team and executive competence, how fast is sales moving, (inventory t/o, receivables t/o), how honest is the executives in recognizing the profits.

5) Profits margin (Is it stable, it is losing as compared to its peers)

6) any niche or "moats"

7) Short term or long terms outlook? How to tell???

8) Financial strength, for both expansion and collapse

9)Integrity, cannot tell

### Property counters' case study

CDL is considered to have a strong balance sheet, its net debt to equity ratio stands at 0.2 while CDLstands at 0.67. Av. is 0.7, above 1 is risky like heeton, thats why its being undervalued, being mark down, cash flow and cash balance is important too

Heeton cash balance can't pay for the current liabilities.

WIngtai balance is strong, businessmodel seems sound, why is market giving such a big discount?? Poor track records? Losses?? Earning visbility??

## Saturday, December 15, 2012

### How to research on a company?

Basic valuation metrics trends: (Long term)

1) Revenue, GP, NP, GP and NP margins

2) Segments R, GP, NP and margins

3) Debt level, ROE, ROA, FCF

Quarter to quarter:

1) Inventory turnover

2) Receivables size(relative to revenue) and turnover

1) Any sustainable moats (Leadership position/ brandname)

2) Key staff turnover and remuneration (Red flags, remuneration increase when profits is falling)

3) Industry your cycle of competence. Understanding the tracking of property prices, calculation of RNAV, etc

## Friday, November 30, 2012

### Investment metric and considerations

1) Trend of EPS

3) Net current assets (Working capital), trend andaverage

4) ROE and ROA

5) FCF

6) PE, P/B, Net assets

7) Margin

8) Capital structure, Loan ratio

Qualitive take away

never buy when all is good,

-> bear market

->Temporary poor quarter results,

marginal company, only perform when market is favorable, check how company perform during crisis and industry downturn.

Other instructments to consider -index fund, preferences shares of large leaders position companies,

## Friday, September 28, 2012

### Company analysis

Track records,

1- NPT, Revenue, margin, free cash flow

2. Take note of receivables growth, credit growth and ROA, ROCI, esp ROE, = NP/ shareholder equity

calculating capex=

Subtract the change in total liabilities from the change in total assets (\$25,000-\$10,000). The answer, \$15,000, represents the amount spent on capital (capital expenditures) for the year.

or investment at PPE

Read more: How to Calculate Capital Expenditure | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_5094718_calculate-capital-expenditure.html#ixzz27xxQ08gp

Take note of deprecation rate, if NAV is the main reason of buying.

Take note of other notes of income, it will most probably contain 1-off items that you mislead you.

## Wednesday, August 29, 2012

### Companies that i want to look in depth

QAF- Sound business of bakery, but low barrier of enteries, market leader position for years, maybe close to a decade???

Spin off of company a potential catalyst, expanding into china, bakery business.

Diary farm

NOL, strategic investment singapore, might be nationalised. bottom of cycle?200% return??? Look more into details. When its trading at \$4,what is its profits??? no. of years of cycle???

Defensive and big market presence.

1) Telcos

2) Utility- what companies???

Maybe i should really sell my s-chips to raise funds

## Wednesday, August 22, 2012

### factors to consider b4 buying

Remember, patience is key to investment

buy only when score is 7/10

sell to profit, do not take into consideration negative,

Should have sold anchun:4, foreland 5, can still hold

1) Market sentiment,

VIX below 20, means Negative; 20-30, neutral; above 30 positive, above 45 highly positive

More than 10% gainhighly negative ,5-10% gain, negative, No correction from  recent peak,/or 0-5% correction,neutral, 5-10% correction neutral, above 10% positive, more than 10% highly positive

2) Sector prospect

Monopoly or very high barrier to entry, positive

Highly defensive/ or at the trough of cyclical, positive (Earnings resilience at the face of crisis)

3) Company credibility

No red flags, positive

Strong cash flow, good valuation- debt ratio, consistent margin and revenue and profits with sector, all factors in highly positive, only 1 missing, positive

execution record,  Plans executed without/with minimum delays

management assessment, how often is its forward looking statement fulfilled, are they candid with challenges or overly bullish?

4) Valuation Gap

>50% highly positive, 30-50% positive, 10-30% neutral, 10% or lower, negative

Potential to be around for decades?

Dividends to be collected over investment periods?? minus worst case scenario price. e.g. singpost price during GFC  assume 60 cents , potential loss46 cents, assume 6.25 cents for10 yrs,62.5 cents, as compare to UMS, not worth it.... esp china stocks...

## Tuesday, August 14, 2012

### foreland

Results is better than expected,

but some burning questions from second quarter results-2012

1) Why is dividend not declared when they are increasing cash hoard, maybe waiting for a long winter? Or is it another fibretech in making??? Worse, why did they claim not to have declare a dividend when they have done so in 2011

## Wednesday, August 8, 2012

### Notes taking from reading- essentials of warren

1) Type of business, franchise and commodity. (Warren choice is company at stage 3 and 4 of their devlopmemt)

i)Franchise,

No regulation

No substitution

Pricing flexibility

ii) Consistent operating history

-> NO makeover of product or change in managment

iii) Managment

Candid assessment

How they deal with extra cash. ROE better than cost of capital, ROE: ROA, the bigger the better Otherwise, return thro dividends or share buyback

Impact of PPE, if >50% of total assets, consider capital intensive

performance,their plan and the execution

## Monday, August 6, 2012

### research HPH

4q 2008 and 2009 export volume is affected, what is the profits of HPH then??

## Saturday, August 4, 2012

### research singpost

Concerns:

Relatively new CEO that is spearheading its tranformation from a mail delivery business to a business of 5 pillars of growth. Although 3 out of the 5 pillar of growth are in areas where synergy with the mail business are evident, its still a venture out of their core business, which is declining due to the the digital age.

4 pillars of growth has no leadership position.

Capital expenditure will be higher than usual

Why would anyone pay for digital mailbox when there are so many free application that can offer up to 50 G free space, those applications mentioned by singtel was unheard of except v-post.

What is this digital business proportion of total revenue?

Logistic business, how successful will it compete against other logistic giant?? Check the trend of this sector

Margin is recovering from Q1, from 4% to about 6%, revenue has continued to increased abeit a slower pace, Q2 will be important results. Sucess in increasing volume, but not margin. Will they continue to throw money in reforming Quantium, when will it stop? Even if results are to improve, unlikely dividend will be raised, since they just have a money raising exercise, they would need to buy more. Aquisitions coming... Potential for growth... Execution not actually fantistic.... 3 yrs have passed with no fruits to bear...

Mail sector is expect to continue to dimish

Hoping for quick turnaround stories.It does happen, but the risk involved might not be worth  it.

Over weight age on penny and speculative stocks. The problem will correct itself in the next 5 years when no more money is plough into such counters even if i do nothing.

Getting stock ideas from forums, investor reports. The focus of reading such reports should be understanding the business, and not what are the flavor of the month.

What should be under my radar:

Companies with long term prospects, would be around in the next decade. With a yield of 5% and assume price does not improve, its still a 50% gain in 10 years.

What are companies with long term prospects:

1) Unshakable leader position - e.g. PSA, SPH, singpost, transport

2) Management stability and execution

3) Near monopoly of market, e.g. Singtel, Singpost, SPH, transport

4) High barrier of entry for competitors. SPH, singpost, SMRT

5) Need no frequent high capital expenditure to grow. PSA, road toll companies, SPH,

6) Has a focus for its core business.

7) Track record. 10 yrs at least

Great business need a fair price, what is a fair price?

1) Price during a bear market

2) Solvable barriers /problems

3) Valuation metric, yield >6% fair if all conditions, >7% if just some conditions on business robustness meet. (see above)

4) Projected future growth, taking worst case scenario

## Friday, August 3, 2012

### investment strategy

What is my investment strategy

1) Enough cash set aside for a bear market

• How much cash is enough?

1. There must beat least 2 months cash set aside for emergency

2. At least 30% of investment money should be in cash unless all definition of bear market is fulfilled

• How do you know its a bear market?

1. A correction of more than 20% has taken place

2. VIX hits above 35

3. Counter hit historical low in terms of price.

• What to invest in a bear market?

1. blue chip companies that give a yield of above 6%

2) Invest in high yield instrument that can give a sustainable yield of 7%

• How to measure sustainability?

1. check company performance over multiple business cycles. Where is the company at now? Has company seen worse time and survive?

2. Peer comparison, how did company do compare to others.

3. What is its financial status? debt level, brand name, pass red flag test??

3) What is my problem?

• Lack of cash

1. stock up on cash instead. Bear market definition not fulfilled

• Poor cash flow

1. Increase cash flow by \$50 per month, and then by \$200 2013 onwards

• Money already tied up in the stock market

1. Exit profitable counter that doesn't fill your portfolio

• Poor portfolio management. What is the composition of your portfolio?

20% - speculative penny or mid-size counters to seize market opportunity (Anchun + foreland)

50% reits or trusts or high dividend companies of high dividend yield for at least 2 years. (HpH + UMS)

30% Blue chip companies that have yield above 5% (None) (Banks, mid-size property, SPH, telecom, utility?)

Be patient, take baby steps to correct mistakes, keep a log of why you buy or sell a company.