Thursday, March 16, 2017

Random thoughts: Sorry, my eyes must be playing tricks on me

Interest finally raise. 

But reits and trusts under my radar is in a sea of green, greener than usual? 

Constructions companies has been on the limelight recently, then followed by suppliers of construction materials. By Lee metals is still going under? A profitable company that is giving dividends at 7% but at about half of EPS? Margin better than competitors but competitors cheong and left it behind? 

Actually, I am quite surprised at the fuss over the 700 mio brought forward by the government. The projected demand is 28 bio to 34 bio. 700 mio is like Mickey Mouse amount right? Of course better than nothing, but it's no like singapore building third IR 

When price go higher, analyst report quote even better and higher target price. I am not surprised by this though. Wow, didn't know YZJ has suddenly went from HTM blown up potential to alpha male in shipping industry... LOL

TRUST yourself than your eyes. LOL


  1. Hi SI,

    I know right! Some more debt ceiling deadline was yesterday night too. And the can gets kicked further down the road.....

    Really sian jiak pua. Hoping to kope some counters, but got nothing to kope -_-

  2. Hi UN,

    Of course, many hindsighters would say; the news has been factored in long ago.

    I would like to say REIT has been on a roll for quite a while since last year black Monday.

    Actually, in general, I am surprise that the market is on 遇神杀神遇佛杀佛”mode. What we have?

    North Korea firing missiles into Japan ocean, Trump; Brexit, and Euro Big players elections this year.

    But no worries, because Trump tax plan, American strength and rising oil price and stabilizing China Economy is more than enough ...

    Enough news for whatever camp in you are in, buffet style ... take what u like

    Valuation is one thing to consider in the midst of the noises though. Growth should be present over the next few years

    1. Half way thro, growth should be present over the next few years is what the market expect

  3. After the strong non-farm payrolls and positive US data, the equity/bond market has been trying to price in a 4x rate hike for 2017, but yellen was more dovish by keeping it at 3x. This led to some massive short covering on some of the long-term bonds positions.
    Longer term, most bond guys are still expecting a bear flattening of the yield curve, which means the USD long end will probably not move up significantly. This is mainly because of the technological advancements, demographics and the business cycle. Trump might be able to boost the business cycle in the short-term, but longer term growth potential remain weak if demographics are not supportive. Furthermore, central bank liquidity remains strong. Until ECB starts tapering and Asian currencies start moving up to reduce current account surpluses, the pool of liquidity out there may continue. Like i just dont get how Singaporeans rush to the property launches, when my pockets feel so empty and my current house mortgage still weighing on me. Clearly, there are a lot of rich people out there, with money to put to use.

    1. Hi Anon,

      That's quite a detailed view. Yup, money going around is the main reason.

      Earnings support valuation just like productivity support economy/ wage in its simplistic form.

      In a bull market/ employee market, we can get overpaid in terms of wages? But when retrenchment happens, only the fittest survive?

      I hope Market do well too.

  4. Hi SI

    This is when monkey throw darts anything also green :D

  5. Quote : "In a bull market/ employee market, we can get overpaid in terms of wages? But when retrenchment happens, only the fittest survive?"

    Only fittest or fitter AND cost effective will survive. That is why some very senior, very experience, fittest in terms of skills BUT not cost effective are also let go.

    That is what I observed over the last 40 years of corporate life.

    1. Hi CW,

      You words are very true and remain me of the hokkien saying "ai P ai qi" (want cheap and good) I remember saying/ hearing that always as a scaism. If we mean it as a compliment, it would be you p you qi.

      But now I guess not enough, need betterer CHEAPERER and fasterer

  6. Hi B,

    I like your analogy of monkey throw darts everything also green.

    Crops are green, it's harvest time. Those who sow seeds can harvest. It's time like this that we know if we have chose a good field, is our planting method correct?

    When it's harvest time, even if planting skills not so good also should get something green shooting up from the ground


  7. Hi SI,

    May i know the competitors of Lee metals? Is TTJ holdings one of them(the closest tt I can think of)? Hupsteel and asia enterprise are not imo.


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