Life goes in cycles, predictable yet uncontrollable; just like the markets, but markets give you a second chance
Wednesday, June 30, 2021
Saturday, June 26, 2021
Random thoughts: Still betting on recovery?
STI is near 3200. It is at or near pre-covid levels. My initial gameplay is to start to offload some counters to increase cash holding as STI goes 3200. I did not.
Whenever I made a sale, I would have redeployed funds back rather quickly. I struggled with an inner voice that is shouting "greed is creeping in", and cognitive dissonance that claimed there is still much to recovery.
1) STI recovery is lead by banks
A quick look at my companies under my radar, only the banks and YZJ are back to pre-covid level (in terms of price), many counters are still at 5 years low.
If you are thinking of "reversion to mean" as a way to play the recovery theme, I would think there are still meat out there.
Of course, each and every company has a different story, but CDG and CDL are both contemplating a sale of assets (Australia assets or in the case of CDL, injection to a reit), in normal time, these should act as a catalyst of sort for short term price gain.
2) The worst is over and yet no reflected in the share price.
CDL has fully impaired the investment on Sincere, Europe is opening up (Think Euro 2020), while CDL has plenty of issues and problems, I would think it would have put his worst behind it.
I am not talking about Covid, but China Tech companies. Alibaba in particular. Yes, ANT will no longer command an lofty valuation if ANT does a future IPO (a BIG IF), but the impact on Alibaba earnings is small, as ANT contribution to alibaba core commerce in low.
The fine on monopolistic practices is more of a closure than a harbinger of worse to come. If there is no exclusive clause for vendors and suppliers to be locked into a platform, how big will the damage be? I seriously do not see an exodus of merchants, since suppliers will be mindful of potential loss of customers. However, as an insurance, I also bought into JD, so together, there could be no hiding place if a supplier would like to participate in the e-marketplace.
Yes, margin for Alibaba e-commerce business is falling, and China e-commercial penetration might be at saturated point. There are the international wing (SEA penetration rate is nowhere near China), and the whether Cloud business can continue to stay profitability and grow it will be a key factor to watch.
3) Restructuring to capture the new economy.
How successfully companies captured new growth opportunities will determine how the market will start to rerate this companies as "growth" companies. There are plenty of examples, MIT increasing the percentage of data centers as a part of its portfolio, Olam, demerger followed by new IPO, Capitaland transformation into a lodging and fund manager, Tianneng Power increasing focus on New Energy Batteries for PowerPlant Storage and EV.
Most of the above mentioned counters have price well below their 52 weeks high. Tianneng Power is growing in double digits for a few years now, with earning visibility still good, yet it is commanding only a PE of 5. Its PE will compressed further if growth continues to materialize. I believe the company has the ability to increase dividends and put the shadow of the short selling report behind it, sooner than later.
I feel there are still opportunities abound for companies. However, market risk has increased for me, since I am almost fully vested with cash only at 10%, although I won't be losing too much sleep over individual company hit or misses since I am a proponent for diversification.
Disclosure: I have a position on the all the mentioned companies in my post except for CDL, yet.
Sunday, June 13, 2021
Random thoughts: tang ping (躺平)
Read about this "silent protest" against the mad rat race or/and harsh working conditions(996) in China. It definitely resonates with me.
My few thoughts:
1) It is definitely not about laziness, but helplessness. If someone is just plain lazy, it is very unlikely to become a rallying call. So much so that censorship happens.
2) When we all started, most of us, would have dreams, ambitions and would like to try to climb the ladder, win the rat race. If we are starting businesses, I guess the dreams are even bigger, such as changing the world, making an impact on other lives.
There are others, who did not want a race at the very beginning, and opted to walk their own path. I believed these people will not bother to even write about “Tang Ping" or join the "protest"/ Movement.
These are people are not lying down, they are walking a different path. "Tang Ping" as the word suggests, is a protest or call out for help. Much like a tired child asking for parents to carry them when they are tired.
3) Before we pass any judgements that these people are "pampered" or "sore losers", I do think, most of us, and especially myself, "tang ping" at different points of time.
Tang Ping @ Investing
I remembered just perhaps years ago, I really would like to blog about a sizeable portfolio, and given how many bloggers who are much younger already had bigger portfolios, it is easy to feel disappointed or inferior. Truth to be told, although such thoughts are few and between and never as intense, it does still popped out now and then.
Tang Ping @Work
It is just in recent years, that I decided to walk in the rat race. I am still in the race, but walking instead of running, does give me more energy. I have tried my best to run in the last decade (I did more than 996 for a few years too) and did manage to get ahead.
But after a while, I realize I not interested in running ahead anymore. Hence, I am sort of also "tang ping"ING.
Tang Ping @Social life
I really do not feel like meeting friends, relatives and the sort. I know about balance of life and etc, but truth to be told, while I enjoy having a quick chat with my friends, f2f or online, I really did not like to visit or do any meals. Don't ask me why, maybe I am a hermit. CB or heightened phase 2, really has no impact on me, I kind of enjoy it, reading and sleeping. Tang Ping again
I hope all those who are reading this, you never feel the urge to "tang xia", but if you do, I hope you take it as a rest, but stand up soon enough. You might decide that you do not wish to run, and would like to take a walk instead. You might start seeing people whom you overtaken earlier, overtaking you, but keep walking, until you are ready to run again.
You might also decided that you had enough of that race, and decide to disqualified yourself and walk off without reaching the end. Find a meaningful journey, and walk, run, play along the way. If you find companions, good, if not, I hope you find solace in the journey alone.
I think I didn't Tang Ping for too long in my life. Sometimes, some "gui ren" gave me a hand, and pull me up. Sometimes, I just can't stand the stepping on by others as I lie down, and hence I just got up.
There are also occasions, where like a little child, hoping to hitch a hug and "ride", I protest by "tang ping".
Its Ok to be not to OK all the times.
Its not Ok to be not OK all the times.
Friday, June 4, 2021
Random thoughts: I no longer feel happy being kind...
My sister alerted me to a facebook group page known as "blessing for those in need".
She told me many people posted things that are still useable, and anyone can ask to collect these items for free. Some kind souls also offer to transport the goods at cost price.
I was invited by my sister to join the group. Recently, as we are doing some spring cleaning, I decided to try posting some items, such as jucier, vaccum flask etc. When happened over the next 2 days triggered a lot of thoughts, and I hope to organize them by writing a post.
When I first posted the items, I am quite surprised that within 1 hour of approval by Admin, someone did want to collect the items. I thought to myself "Great, things will not go to waste, and someone get help" The lady ask for my contact and arranged for Courier to pick my stuff. My thoughts that surfaced (I am cynical person) "Why is a person who is so efficient and resourceful in getting a courier (I didn't know Q express provide such CtoC service) asking for free item? Is she trying to resell the items? Isn't there a cost involved if courier service is purchased?" Nonetheless, I felt that even if she do resell the items, it is to her resourcefulness, and I still fulfilled my goal of reducing wastage. (Doesn't matter that when you first joined the group, one of the rules is no reselling of the items).
When I was posting another batch of items to be collected, I look through what are the items that are available for collection. I am quite surprised to find TV, furniture given away. On the other end of the spectrum, there are very cheap items such as a stuff toy and clothes hangers to be given out too.
I was looking at one post, where a lady is trying to help a friend give away old furniture. Another person claimed to be interested, but unable to pay for transport. I then offer to sponsor the transport and ask the owner if she could arrange. The lady insisted that I settled the transportation on my own, and hence I went about coordinating between the two. It is through this coordinating that I learnt about gogoX and LalaMove, and how transport cost has dropped.
I did not have a good experience, as I realized the person asking for furniture also start to ask for food, and mentioned several times her plight. I did some fact finding, and found out that she is real, and is helped by GiveAsia before. The sum raised is small.
When I left a comment on the post, saying that I am willing to pick up the tab for the person on the transport, to get her the coffee table that she wanted, another commenter who is queuing for the same item earlier, bring forward the possible date of collection. I felt quite uncomfortable about "fighting over" item.
I told the person wanting the furniture that I can cancel the request for the furniture and use the transportation costs to buy groceries for her, if that is "really what she needed" (her own words) She then told me she really wanted the furniture instead, and she could ask her cousin for food instead.
I am not sure about the whole experience.
How much help is enough, and how to make sure the help goes to the deserving.
For someone in need of long term help, constantly trying to get help. is it still dignified. I am not passing any judgement here. Just penning my many thoughts that are swirling around my head.
Deep inside me, the feelings of satisfaction and joy whenever I help someone in the past, is missing this time round. Of course, I am mindful my "help" is of little or no significance.
Just feeling weird that I might have pass the age, where I feel happy, doing a others a small favor. Maybe it is because I realized I might not really make a difference.