Sunday, March 20, 2022

Random thoughts: Energy vampires

I feel drained when I hear the following:

1) Petrol pump is up, everything is going up, and there is going to be GST, the ......

2) Why is there an price difference between Grab food platform and the price of food from food court? Let's order something else ... ...

3) Why is the country opening up? There are still so many cases, they dun care anymore... ...

It is not the content, but the lack of perspective and drama that I hate. I can understand it when a PVH laments about the cost of petrol eating into margins and profits.

Yet, we are safe and sound in Singapore, while Ukraine is being bombed, and car owners who still have their jobs keeping talking about rise in cost, it smacks of lack of thankfulness.

I am glad that Covid, Ukraine's war, and inflation is affecting my life only in terms of dollars and cents and I am very thankful that I can manage, and still get on with life. 

While I have many unhappiness regarding how Covid is managed in Singapore, I think there are many loopholes and flaws in Singapore, but I nonetheless is grateful that we are in no shortage of Vaccines, and our hospitals are not overwhelmed. 

U can disagree with the way things are, I express your opinions, that doesn't make u or me a energy vampires. But if you just like to complain and dramatized the many little inconveniences, I wonder how can we experience happiness and peace. 

Dun be energy vampires.  If we cannot spread positivity, at least keep the negative Energy to ourselves.

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Random thoughts: Alibaba and JD

 I think Alibaba brought a lot of grief to people. 

From what I read in the blogger sphere, it seems many people "regret" boarding the bandwagon. 

As a silly investor, I would like to give my silly take. 

As Alibaba went south, I followed my rules of engagement of accumulating when price show 20-25% weakness. When it is my third or fourth Tranche, I look for 30-35% correction. 

Mathematically, the third or fourth tranche will be less than 50% of your last purchase price.

The caveat is the accumulation cannot Exceed 5% of my overall portfolio, and my portfolio, I included my cash that are set aside for investment. 

I believe Alibaba cloud business will turn in profits, and its e-commerce still has a moat. I also believe/ hope that regulations will come to an end, and release the pressures on these companies. 

My average price is 146 and I am 30% into the red. I missed the lowest price and my last entry is 96, which is just slightly higher than what the market offers now. At its worst, I am down by more than 40%. 

I do not think I will accumulate further although I still have leeway and room before the 5% ceiling is hit. 

The same can be said of JD, although I waited longer before accumulating because JD results is worse than I expected, (turning in a loss).

I think I am humbled by the HK market, as I am a newbie in it. I didn't experience multiple days of more than 20% swing in price per day with STI. 

My holding of HK counters increased significantly when HK hit bear market, alas, I was 2 days too early, or I would be already be sitting on good paper gains. 

Yet, I reminded myself that my goal is not about bragging rights, but to build a portfolio that is less fragile to shocks, and one of the way to build such a portfolio is to do bear hunting. 

I bought:

1China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Ltd. 

2Stella, 

3Ping An, 

4ICBC, 

and accumulate JD and Alibaba. 

The point I want to make is this, we can never predict the market, and we will likely learn new lessons from Mr Market, but it is of utmost importance to have a plan or strategy and stick to it. Gather data as you execute the plan, and refine it. 

If we start throwing out our whole blueprint every time the market move against us, and hope to get a new sure-win plan, we are asking for trouble. We should be more concerned about our portfolio, than individual counters. What is the cash flow generating from that portfolio, and is there any buffer to withstand a correction? My last count, my yield of portfolio is 3-4% only, but it is a portfolio that allowed me to sleep well during turbulent times and is better than CPF, OA, without lock-in period.

I hope to be able to improve either the yield or the MOS of my portfolio. Since I am still building up my portfolio size, I am definitely BUYING more than SELLING. The only stock I sold in the last month is DBS, but I agree with SMOL that I can do better at SELLING, since I am too fixated on buying. It is one area that I think I can improves on, but SELLING and PANIC SELLING are 2 totally different matter

I am more a turnaround investor, so my style suit me alone. I am not peddling my way, but encouraging whoever is sitting on Alibaba paper loss, that well, you have a silly companion who is not just silly but also stubborn. 


Sunday, March 6, 2022

Random thoughts: Steady portfolio in chaotic times.

My portfolio is 10 percent in the green, but I have several misadventures, with counters down by 50 percent or more, such as TianNeng Power international, and several others such as Alibaba 9988

The portfolio is actually not at it lowest, for the past 1 year, despite the HK tech meltdown, Russia War, and inflation fears.

Looking back, the last 6 months provide several reflective points, which I will pen down 

1) Portfolio should include both realised and unrealised profits and also cash.

I used to ignore unrealised profits or loss in looking at my portfolio, and realised how foolish I have been. Several counters that I bought for a trading gains, like Geely, Alibaba, JD has gone from a profits to loss. Geely especially, has met target of 50 percent gains, and yet, I didn't do anything. 

2) Thematic reallocation of portfolio.
When inflation is the scare, I pick up Olam, a commodity player. Commodity plays tend to do well in inflationary environment, and so far it worked well.

Reopening theme plays have not turn out too well. 

But restructuring plays like Capitaland to capital investment, sembcorp Demerger, and Keppel vision 2030 restructuring all turn out relatively well. 

Diversified portfolio need various themes, and I will continue to explore this, together with geographic diversification. I recently re-enter US tech stocks again.

3) Dumb luck.

ST ENGINEERING and BAE are bought, for their cash flow and defensive business. When war broke out, both perform well, although I rather there is no war. I hope war ends quickly and won't not mind the 2 counters knee jerk corrections.

4) Averaging down is a double edge sword.

1 counter, TianNeng Power, has been average down thrice. Hitting for ceiling/ threshold of 5 percent and singlehandedly pull the whole HK portfolio into RED. 

I think I might need some review of Av. Down rules again. 

Of course, there are cases of Averaging down working well, like For Olam, etc.

5) Accumulate up will work too. 

I did that for Hotung, YZJ, Comfort Delgo when I predicted that earning will improve, and pushing up dividends. It works well for all except Comfort Delgo. 

The idea of earning projections and expansion is important in our decision making process. Don't just buy low price, buy when there is low expectations, and earnings can beat those expectations.

6) Diversification gives me a good night sleep.

Non of my counters are above 5 percent of my total portfolio values. In fact, I have more counters in the 2- 3 percent range than 5 percent range. My portfolio value moves up and down like a snail. 

I guess is nothing exciting. But since most of the counters gave a dividend, as long as the portfolio stays above water, I will just milk the dividends and occasional opportunitsic trades.

7) Entry point is everything..Almost.
I created the bulk of my portfolio during the Covid onset scare, when STI is around 2700. 

Yup, I went in early. It bottoms around 2300. 

But it is still a reasonable entry points for most counters. 


Friday, February 11, 2022

随心笔:规则

 规则是路标,也是枷锁。

不知道往哪走的人,

规则,让我们有方向感。

想探险的人,或像走自己路的人,

勇敢地往前走吧。

或许,没人走过的路,有点危险。

或许,会受伤,会不舒服。

但是,走自己的路,就是一个福气。


走在康庄大道的人,

要注意规则,

有方向,有时速。

因为每个人都在道上,

如果没有规则,会混乱。


这条路走不完,

不要把规则,当成路。

Friday, January 28, 2022

Random thoughts: I didn't get what I want... ...

 It might not be a bad thing.

Strange. 

I bought 2 poles (those for clothes drying), to be used as stands for a DIY volleyball net. 

However, my son and I break 2 of these stands/ poles in recent weeks as our spike hit the string too hard.

When I went to those "mama" neighborhood shops to get replacement again, I could not find those extendable poles anymore. So, I settle for the bathroom shower curtain poles that cost twice as much. 

I didn't really wanted to wait and shop around anymore as I was really busy and we have already arranged to play volleyball 2 days later.

When I set up the net, I realized the shower poles are made of solid metals and despite us "accidently" hitting the net strongly a few times again, it did not break. 

A good thing happen.

... ...

In my investing journey, I have wanted to FIRE at age 40-45.

I didn't get what I wanted. 

I wanted to have early retirement.

I realized the numbers didn't add up.

I hope to have a retirement that does not become a burden to others. So far, this last wish might still be possible, because if I am healthy, I hope to work as long as I can, as long as I can still contributed in my work.

However, Investing changed my perspectives on many things. I get exposed to ideas of behaviorism and biases, and applying the rules of investing are like training my temperaments, learning how to cope with fear and greed. 

If you ask me, if at the end of the day, if my net net gains in investing is a net zero, I would still say it is a wonderful journey.

... ...

In my work, I have wanted to climb the coporate ladder.

When I took a back seat, I have to cope with some inner demons and ego issues.

There were quite a few occasions I felt "useless" and blame myself for throwing in the towel. 

Now, I am having hell of a time. Every morning, I played volleyball, or rather coach it to pupils with passion and hunger to win. While I am mindful that my secondary school way of training is outdated, with hard drills and a lot of yelling, I sometimes cannot help myself. But the players still come for these "optional" and "extra" trainings, and sometimes when I got ready at 6.40 a.m. Some of them are already waiting for me.

Many chastise me for being "glory" or "Results" hungry, I think they missed the point, and it is sad coming from a PE middle manager. It is not about being the champion, it is the hunger for improvement and success that perks me up, and I look forward to those sessions everyday. 

I also have plenty of time free up to make lesson interesting for my pupils, even those not in my school

I arrange for a role-playings during lessons, and pupils actually "cook" in class. One of my pupil had to miss my lesson to go see the dental, and he shouted:" Again?" That he wanted so much to stay in my class to carry out the activities I planned really made my day. 

I also create escape room games for my pupils and organized a nation-wide competition just for Foundation Stream pupils, which I believed is the first such national competition for "weak" pupils. Last year, a few teachers text me after the event, and thanks me for organizing such a event for this group of pupils, who do not have much self-confidence. Although there were some glitches last year, and this year, less schools participated, I am still happy that I now work to fulfill my own vision of what education should be. 

......

Sorry that this post sound like self-trumpeting in the end. Perhaps it is those self-encouraging posts. 


  

Thursday, December 16, 2021

Random thoughts: FIRE for 2 weeks.

For the past 2 weeks, life is like retirement. Since a long time, my mind is totally free from work, and the last 2 weeks is Netflix, Games, volleyball, reading and some investing prospecting 

It is kind of like achieving FIRE 🔥

But I am actually looking forward to go back to work. I know when the time comes, I will feel "Sian" and as the grinding starts, fatigue will makes me a grumpy person again

Yet, I am kind of happy that I no longer fears work, and I actually looking forward to know new pupils, I will be teaching a younger level of pupils next year. 

Because of Covid, there is also no big overseas trip to plan, and I can really "Nuan" at home.

It is a time of classics, I start watching "Naruto" with my son, "Lucifer" with my wife. With the me time afforded, I read old titles like "the best I could", "is easy to cry". Those are really nice books/ biographies.

Covid has changed me. It brought me the hermit in me. I have turned down several invitations to meet up. The funny thing is, I dun really feel "lonely" or "upset".

Spending time with my son, and my wife, and myself seems good enough. Maybe at my future funeral wake, my family members can't find visitors for me, but we'll, it would not bothers me then.

There were several occasions where I have heart to heart chat over the WhatsApp with ex-pupil, parents, and I find those conversations insightful and many a times, quite deep sharings. Somehow, I prefer those unreal virtual sharings than a crowded meal with superficial talks or reminiscing the "past"

Sadly, perhaps, I didn't really have close friends to begin with, and this Covid Pandemic just exposed the sad truth. But well, I wish to call myself a loner since my college days, so I guess it is subconscious awareness. Luckily, the fact didn't overwhelmed me with sad pity.



Friday, December 10, 2021

Random thoughts: These stocks will likely increase their dividends in FY 2021

NOTE: 

I owned shares of the below mentioned counters, and hence have my biases and ulterior motives for writing this post (Evil laughs) 


1) UOBKayhian

  • 1H earning beats 2020 earnings. UOBkayhian biggest earning segment is trading commission. 
  • SGX trading volume and value for the last 11 months beats 2020 (11 months)
  • US market is seeing new high, Thailand trading volume and value for the last 11 months are also significantly higher than 2020.
  • If the 50% payout holds (which is the case for many years), there is a high probability that dividends will exceed last year 9.5 cents. (1H EPS is already 11 cents.)


2) Hotung 

  • 2020 EPS is 5.42 NT$, and 1H 2021 EPS is already 3.28NT$
  • 2021 there is frequent share buybacks, and this is NOT a yearly occurernce
  • 2021 there are 2 vested companies of Hotung that are listed. (None in 2020)
  • 2021 NTS$ has strengthen against SGD as compared to 2020


3) ComfortDelgro

  • DPS in 2021 already exceeded 2020
  • QOQ deterioration of earnings is not unexpected due to Heightened alert
  • Q4 results should bounce back.


4) YZJ 

  • Please read the wonderful article by Squirrel Drey. (One of the best analysis by bloggers for a while)
  • As rightly pointed out, steel cost has come down, and with record order book, margins should recovers.

  • Management has said the newer contracts has accounted for possible higher costs, and if the steel costs continue to be low, the mix of good and poor margins of contracts would enable better earnings
  • Main reason for increase is expectation of special dividends due to spin off of investment business


5) Lung Kee (0255 HK, dual listed in SG )

  •  1H 2021 EPS already grown more than 70%
  • However Lung Kee did not have a fixed Payout Ratio (Although it is consistently high in the last 4 years)

6) OLAM 

  • Record operational earnings in 1H
  • Intern Dividends already increased
  • Inflationary environment favours the agri-commodity sector

Conclusion:

It is important to note that the above POSSIBLE dividends increase did not take into account any price increase that has already taken place. However, most of the price increase with the exception of Lung Kee, seems modest.