Sunday, January 15, 2023

随心笔:味道、仪式篇

味道篇

人生如味,酸甜苦辣咸。

所谓五味杂陈,多有贬义。

五位杂陈,才是圆满人生吧。

咖啡,就有苦,酸,甜。


味道过盛,对身体无益。

唯一例外,唯有苦涩。

然,我们都厌恶苦味。


身上散发的,都是酸味。

酸葡萄。

也许嘴上不说,你羡慕别人的还少了?

切莫让酸葡萄,变成了铜臭味。


五味,淡淡即可。

所谓甜丝丝,就是如此。


仪式篇

仪式很重要。

仪式,是一种提醒,让自己牢记,让别人莫忘。

祭奠仪式,就是莫忘祖先。


仪式,也是一种尊重,表示我们的重视。

毕业仪式,对那些勤奋学习,学有所成的学生表示重视,鼓励。

提醒其他人孜孜不倦地学习。


仪式,是一种提醒,一种重视,一种尊重。

莫忘了,仪式背后,提醒什么?重视什么?

莫要本末倒置了。


新年迎春,提醒什么?尊重什么?

谁的屋子布置华丽吗?

能吃上最美味奢华的大餐吗?

红包的行情很重要吗?


还是提醒我们破旧迎新,

记得布比受有福?

Monday, January 2, 2023

Surprises in 2022 at work, that i am thankful for

This post is perhaps 1 day late.

2022 has its ups and downs.

These are some surprises in work

1) Creating lessons that are fun, like "cooking" in class, and a Harry Potter escape room

2) Coaching a volleyball team. It is my good fortune this year to meet some of the most passionate players, who turns up without fail before 7 am in the morning to practise, and yet still clamor for more, doing it during recess. I obliged. It is hectic, tiring, and crazy, given i still have my teaching lessons and other duties.

Nonetheless, I will gladly do it again. 

When the NSG season is over, I am kind of sad to see them go. Most are P6 pupils who need to focus on preparing for their exams.

I am happy that most of the dilligent players all gotten DSA to schools of their choice. I told them they are good enough among their peers to apply for any schools, but they need to consider their academic competency too.

Till now, i remembered vividly how they are waiting for me during recess, sipping milo and waving frantically when i walk towards the court. What i didn't expect, is long after their competitions is over, so many of them still crowd around me to chat or simply to listen, when our lunch break coincided. Crowded by them as they simply sat around me is a 千金难买 feeling, especially when i feel 缘分已到尽头. During the holidays, they returned for training and helped me with training.

3) Unforgettable conversations. A parent whose child is not taught by me, (his boy with my team, i taught her elder daughter years ago) came to look for me, wanting to pass me some snacks from Overseas and thanking me for advice given when his son gotten his exam results.  She had wanted to meet another teacher to get some Certificate and i was playing volleyball with the old boys and girls. We ended up chattig for hours and she ordered Macdonald for the kids, when i said some of them didnt take lunch to play volleyball. We ended up having a picnic of sorts, chatting and eating.

One of my most quiet pupil in my graduating class actually told me a lot about her family and show me a lot of photos of her younger sister on the last day of school. I always said she is 冰山, as u can hardly get much response from her in class. She is not that cold afterall. Her mum texted me on the day of release of results, thanking me.

I was tasked to relief a new class after the year end exams. I am surprised that a pupil can earn 50k a year just by chatting to people on a platform with games. I am sure there are plenty of info she didnt tell me, and i told her my concerns about the job taking a nasty turn. Well, i am surprised with the amount of info she is willing to share with a "stranger". I heard enough to feel that she is street smart enough.

Well. I am thankful for these things at work. Happy 2023, have a great year at work too

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Thakral, a gem under the rubble?

Note: vested interest

Never heard of it? Is a singapore listed company with distrubution and real estate business.

Maybe u should take a look too and tell me what u think?

Some interesting facts:

1) 7.5 +- yield, that is backed by it's dividend policy of 2 half yearly payout of 2 cents. It is broken only in 2020

2) The distribution business has turnaround and with China also opening up, the longer term trend makes tailwinds more than headwings.

3) Hit the jackpot with its 50-50 JV with Gemlife, which has been developing retiree homes for the above 50 in Australia for almost a decade. It is going from strength to strength, and there is failed attempt to merge living stone and Gemlife and to attract a new investor for a 1.billion stake. Although Thakral clarfied the australia news article price tag of 1billion is "indicative", and the deal has been called off, a comparison with its existing market capitalisation suggest a wide discrepancy.

4) Company did a partial offering in 2019 to raise its stake to 50.2 percent at low ball target, of 50. Cents, then just 11 percent prenium to then WAP.  It restarted shares buyback above 50 cents recently. It has not done any shares buyback in years

It is purely my speculation that the company might be privatised. But if is not, a 7.5 yield seem like a good deal to me, especially if the dividends never exceeded the company Net profits and is stated as a formal dividend policy. In short, the dividende seem sustainable.

Merry Christmas and Thakral you, i mean Thank you for reading.

Have a festive year end

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

随心笔:放松

想要放松一点,
就把一切不愉快的遭遇当渡劫,
让一切的失败和辜负被原谅。

Friday, October 7, 2022

Random thoughts: Thankful for a satisfying day

Yesterday was a great day! I am thankful for it.

For those who read Rolf H2F3 post, it was one of the days where I feel everything is falling in place

We celebrated my wife's birthday. We didn't really celebrate birthdays beyond a meal at home due to Covind. I spent quite some time planning for this. While my wife changed the plan quite a bit to fit her busy tuition schedule, I can see she is visible happy about the meal out, and the surprise gifts we got for her, which are not expensive. 

I also meet up with some secondary school friends for a game of volleyball, and I brought my son along. I could not recognise most of my seniors, but I nonetheless had a good 1 hour game. I could not play longer as I need to fetch my wife from work. 

What really makes me happy is I used to be very anxious when I played a game with the seniors. This time round, I simply said I would like to play the role of a "setter", even to strangers. There are mistakes made, but it doesn't bother me anymore and I could really enjoy the game as it is. What I have been telling my pupils in my CCA to do, I finally is able to do it myself. 

Even my son said he has the best game play ever and would really want to play more. 

Although there is not much catching up with friends, I am just contented to have re-connect with my secondary school friends, even if it is just short whatsapp messages.

The time spent thinking and planning for my wife birthday celebration is really worth it. I realise I have spent so much time planning for my pupils' study and I have not put in as much thoughts for my family. Will try to do so more often. 



Saturday, October 1, 2022

My portfolio turns RED

My defense have been breached. I want to write a blog to reflect on a few questions.

1) Could I have sold more earlier? 

2) When to buy more? 

Let's look at the recent actions. My rules governing selling is not price sensitive, as oppose to what many investors and traders use. I ask myself if there is a risk of earning deterioration, and if the odds is high, sell. 

Hence I sold CSE, whose management mentioned about cost overrun eating into margin, and with inflation, I hardly think things can get better easier even with a bigger order book. The price didn't reflect my pessimism, it fells generally with the magnitude of market retreat.

I also reduce Hotung, as I thought the high interest rate environment with make tech VC business more trying, and they have already had 2 years of good growth, and hence is staring at a high base historically 

I reduce Geely 175 HK, since I wanted to keep my HK portfolio smaller than Singapore, and after accumulating on weakness, i got a chance after China declare it wants to support EV industry to offload with profits. I still have half of the shares, but the fall in this counter has been drastic, things could have been worse if I have not cash out 

These sell actions only generated about 5 percent more cash. 

And some of it, I recycled and bought into YZJ Financial and Wilmar, so the net cash increase is slightly less tha 3 percent. 

Compared to TONG portfolio from the edge newspaper, who decidedly trimmed half of it portfolio, my actions seem to be going nowhere. 

Now, why couldnt I sell more. Are there possible deterioration of earnings that I failed to see? 

Inflation, restricted to my limited knowledge, affect margins for almost every company, except perhaps commodity companies (but apparently this is true only for energy but not agriculture, if u look at the price performance of companies.) 

So, so I sell most of my counters? Or should I continue to look at company specific impact, and hold on to those companies since I have no idea what will be a good rentry price. 

The fear of missing out of a good rentry price for good blue chip companies seems to be the reason why I hesitate to sell companies like ST engineering, HK land, Keppel etc, as I scope them up during pandemic panic. I am not sure if such price will come by again. If u ask me if I can sell first and buy back later, I am.not sure what is the "spread" to take advantage of. I did tell myself to buy back DBS after I sold it at 37 yo get back at 20 percent discount, but when it went to sub 30 for a while, I did nothing, and the chance is pased.

Let's assume I should have done it, and I should sell most of my counters now, I am not sure if they will fall another 20 percent, it seems like "gambling" that a Inflation triggered recession will wipe another 20 percent off when prices have already corrected. I think HK counters is really too late to sell, as they have already dropped close to 40 percent from their peak. 

I also shuddered to think that developers/reits who survived 2 years of pandemic crowd control measures who do worse in a recession. 

It seems that at this point of time, the answer is I could not have sold more unless I changed my rules for selling. 

The HK market is a surprise, as I did miss selling the construction companies when the developers are delevaraging and their property market went into doldrum. Beyond that, is school fees paid to understand the business better, what raw material course to look out for, and what regulation to stay clear.

For the second qn, my rule is accumulation when prices fell by 20 percent in a "normal" market and 25 - 30 percent in volatile market. 

It definitely is the latter now, I did went and scope up plenty of HK counters recently. Ping An, ICBC, Alibaba, China Resources 

Even in Singapore, I intiate position on CICT and adds on to SATS. 

I will keep to the rule, and buy anytime when I think the odds of future earning growth is high. (need not be the next quarter) 

Conclusion

There is no denying that I have limited knowledge of how the companies are run and the industries that they are in. 

But the silver lining is that I have not broken any self-written rules for investing. 

I am not sure how I should measure my performance, but I am definitely not losing sleep yet. 

Maybe one of the selling rule could be 2 years of record growth? Any lack of catalyst or first sight of red flag should be enough to activate a sell some call, so I could have perhaps lock in more profits. 

If I followed this rule, I would not be able to sell earlier, but I could have sold Lung Kee, CSCP, lonking etc 

I think the most important rule to review should be I should have a different set of rules for HK portfolio. Since the movement in this market is perhaps 2 to 3 times not volatile. I should take a more active trading mindset with overseas counters

Friday, September 9, 2022

随心笔:中秋节的祝福



中秋快乐, 但愿读者身体健康。

不求闲逸无事,只求累得心甘情愿。

不奢望包容受宠,只要知音的了解 。

不盼亲友四周,只需心存挂念。


最后,俗的可以。

送着一幅图。