Remember, patience is key to investment
buy only when score is 7/10
sell to profit, do not take into consideration negative,
Should have sold anchun:4, foreland 5, can still hold
1) Market sentiment,
VIX below 20, means Negative; 20-30, neutral; above 30 positive, above 45 highly positive
More than 10% gainhighly negative ,5-10% gain, negative, No correction from recent peak,/or 0-5% correction,neutral, 5-10% correction neutral, above 10% positive, more than 10% highly positive
2) Sector prospect
Monopoly or very high barrier to entry, positive
Highly defensive/ or at the trough of cyclical, positive (Earnings resilience at the face of crisis)
3) Company credibility
No red flags, positive
Strong cash flow, good valuation- debt ratio, consistent margin and revenue and profits with sector, all factors in highly positive, only 1 missing, positive
execution record, Plans executed without/with minimum delays
management assessment, how often is its forward looking statement fulfilled, are they candid with challenges or overly bullish?
4) Valuation Gap
>50% highly positive, 30-50% positive, 10-30% neutral, 10% or lower, negative
Potential to be around for decades?
Dividends to be collected over investment periods?? minus worst case scenario price. e.g. singpost price during GFC assume 60 cents , potential loss46 cents, assume 6.25 cents for10 yrs,62.5 cents, as compare to UMS, not worth it.... esp china stocks...