Integrated Plans are not only about Hospital ward type. (Updated)

If u think u dun mind staying at a B2 ward, good for you. 

I am not sure, I think if I am sick, I would like to rest in style if I can afford it. But I respect your choice.

But please hor, IP is not about room and board. It is never a big item in hospital bill. 

I know, my mum just passed away, she is hospitalized at MT Alvernia,my dad was hospitalized at a government hospital TTSH ( btw, it is damn cheap for the CT scan, MRI and x-Ray and the final bill is 2K plus) and my wife's sister had a stroke and did the same procedures as that of Mr Heng. 

The most scary part of the bill is the ICU stay, the surgery (depending on the complexity)

My mum hospital bill for Breast removal surgery and stay is around 40k. The bulk of the expenses is the surgery 15 K, the medicine etc. 

My wife's sis stayed at TTSH, had the surgery there, stayed at ICU for 3 weeks, then transfer to MT Elizabeth novena because the operation to drain fluid from the brain is unsuccessful, so they went to Elizabeth after 1 month to do operation (can't remembered the name) to have a motorized tube draining the fluid to the stomach area. She is recovering well now. She spent a good 6 weeks in hospital, the last 1 week at private care. My sister helped her to claim every hospital expenses as charged, not a single cent is forked out by them. How much is the bill? She said never made such a big claim before, it was close to 200k

Of course, if u are sure about not needing  private care, and if your conditions are not too serious, (no need for complex surgery, long stay at ICU for example), Medishield should suffice, as what happen to my dad is an example. I give credits to government for making heathcare affordable. 

Personally, I think private care is a real option and not a luxury. U can dun agree with me. I will not parrot my past post about the difference is wait time and choice of Doctor. Btw, Mt Elizabeth Novena sucks, as compared to Mt Alvernia. Hotel class facilities, yes, but there do not even have a alarm mattress that will raise alarm when someone leave the bed, which is available in TTSH. Not all private care are equal it seems.

( Update: btw, I recalled during my university days, I helped paid for my dad bills first. He insisted in returning me the money. It was a good 15-17 years ago, and it costs about 7 k cash (without shield) for a operation and 3 days stay. I can't remembered if the operations is a balloon  or the taking of a vein at the legs for the artery at the heart, only 1 night at ICU. So  minus ICU and 2 days room and board claimable, u have a balance of 4.4 k for surgery. That is 15 years ago at NUH iirc)

I will leave it to u if 2K is enough "safety" for surgery, and 1.2 K ICU per day is enough. 

As I said, it is enough, if basic health care is all you wanted and care for. Kbow what u are getting. Of course, there is issue of affordability too. Not everyone can afford private care and we shouldn't stretch it. Post treatment care can amount to a lot too. 

A short write up on Silverlake-axis

(Vested interest)

Silverlake is interesting, in my opinion. There are plenty of blog posts regarding the numbers, its FCF etc, so I will not dwell into it. When razor99 wrote a short seller report, it cause the stock to lose some 80% of the value, by suggesting mainly that the numbers are not real and prop up by complicated IPTs. The Deloitte Singapore report while suggesting some better clarity and transparency could be handed with regards it its IPTs, nonethelss give it a clear bill of heath and suggest that the numbers are good. You can read the report here.

What then ills this company, that it cannot even reover to half of its glory. As I read through the ARs and look that the various issues, I found the followings:

1) Results is not longer growing, since its acquisition of Sungard Ambit.
2) It could be over-valued when it is hot, and people are just coming to reality with it.
3) It report its earnings in Ringits and ringits is facing headwinds.
4) GIT, an company in which it has an 20% stake and has intention to sell 8 million shares, has been suspended since March.

I found 4) to be most intriguing and there is plenty of updates from this webpage 

GIT is suspended pending restructring, while it is still suspended, the details of the transaction is already out. It is buying another company for 300 mio, of which 21.8% is paid in cash, and 78.2%  in shares placement. There will also be another tranch of placemnet  to 5 investors for 280 mio cash. Part of the cash will be used to fund the acquisition but the bulk of it will be for expansion plans.

So what is the price paid?

序 号 转让方 持有标的公司 股权比例 股份对价金额 （万元） 股份发行数量 （股） 现金支付 （万元） 1 北京睿韬科技有限 责任公司 60% 14,076 2,765,422 3,924 2 宁波镇海翔易融联 投资管理合伙企业 （有限合伙） 40% 9,384 1,843,614 2,616 合计 100% 23,460 4,609,036 6,540

10% discount to its 20days average price prior to its suspension, and that valued the GIT shares at 50.9 CNY. The new investors pledge not to dispose the shares within the next 36 months.

In terms of PE, the deal is crab, but A-shares seem to have crabby over-valuation, including that of GIT itself. But there is profits guaranteed clause:

"宁波镇海翔易融联投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）及北京睿韬科 技有限责任公司（“补偿义务人”）承诺，上海睿民在 2016 年度、2017 年度及 2018 年度合并报表口径下归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常 性损益后的净利润分别不低于 2,000 万元、2,600 万元和 3,380 万元。"

20 Mio, 26 mio and 33.8 mio for year 2016-2018. Not too bad a deal, if you ask me. Because GIT annual NP is CNY 32,948,983.24. GIT will grow more than the dilution of 15%. And the discount of 15% versus 10% dilution do not seem excessive too.  

The website posted an research report calling for a "buy" after the acquistion with a target price of 87CNY, what caught my attention is not the price target but the PE. 150 X (what the F+*&)

"若考虑并购业绩增厚及增发股本摊薄影响,我们预计2016-2018年备考EPS0.68/0.92/1.22元。暂不考虑收购和增发影响,我们预计公司2016-2018年的EPS为0.58/0.80/1.06元,参考同行业可比公司,同时考虑到:(1)公司在金融云平台领域的领先的布局和资源优势,(2)金融信息化领域拓展带来的业绩高增长,我们认为公司应享有一定溢价,给予公司2016年动态PE150倍,6个月目标价为87.00元/股,维持“买入”评级。"

2016 Q1result of the target company is 4,132,354.09. But that is because the big expense research fees which amount to 16 mio for the whole of 2015 is missing. I wonder why they are confident of profit guarantee (With an compensation clause, not say say only) of 20 mio? It is because there is snergy in research expenses? Or that the 16 mio in 2015 is one-off? I did not dig further.

So, if there is no monkey business at GIT and assume 8 million shares sold at  50CNY sold, we are looking at 80 mio SIngdollars. 

GIT issue does not seem to be an issue to me.

How about point 1)? That it is no longer a growing company. Only time will tell if Ambit is a good deal, by reading the annual reports of the customers of silverlake, OCBC, RHB, and CIMB, all three mentioned investing in technology to enhance customers' experince, increase productivity, etc, there is no mention of cost cutting in this area. I think the sales team headcount would be under the chopping board first, OCBC mention the integration of Wing Hang system into OCBC, so I believe the process is still on going and the recurring income should be stable or growing. 

I could be well wrong about all this. I am an armchair investor, as for currency weakness, that is one I am willing to bear as I do not think Ringgit is going to be much lower than 3:1 currently. 

So, what do you think?

Random thoughts: the joy and pain of keeping a meat-free diet

Since my mum passed away, I have been keeping a meat-free diet. It has passed the 49 days. Even before she passed away, I have already abstain from meat. Some joys and pains of it:

Joys: 

a) lost some weight and inches at my waist. My lady colleague comment I look better. LOL, not some young chick hahahahah, but I am still happy.

b) Spirtually, I always wanted to keep to the 5 "commandments" (五戒) I finally done one of it, which I used to think as impossible as I am an heavy meat eater before this, at least until now. (No killing), the only one I cannot do consistently is no evil lust (邪淫), because I consider thoughts as part of it. Please hor, I dun visit night clubs. So when I abstain from meal, I also try to clear my mind from the craving of meat. I always look at the meat and reverse the image to that of the live animal, and then imagining it being killed and cooked. Usually I dun really feel like eating it after that mental process. 

Pains:

1) While I dun really crave for meat, I am really quite sicked of vegetarian food. Once u have been eating a while, you will hate the mock meat etc. it defeat the purpose of eating vegetarian anyway, since your mind is craving for that taste of the meat.

2) I ended up taking in a lot more sugars as I start taking more cakes, ice-cream to satisfy my cravings. It is starting to take a toll on me. I am trying to control it. 

3) During the holidays, the temptations are bigger as I bring my family out for dining and I meet my friends. The taste buds indulgences are not longer there and I must admit it felt quite sianz at times.

Conclusion

It is defintely a worthy exercise. Also, I am prepare to take meat if there is really no other choices. 

But hey, I realize everywhere I go, there is definitely something for me to eat. Macronalds you can eat pancake, Kenny Rogers you can eat cheese macaroni. 

I wonder how long I can last. LOL

Can't believe I am just taking this for

Dinner LOL

Random thoughts: Passion and interest

Recently, there is quite a buzz over the word "passion"

I first saw a video on another blogger's blog about following opportunity and not passion. 

Then there is quite a lot of input about passion, work etc. 

Here are my poison: 

Passion in work and passion in life, are they different? 

They could be, but I think we cannot confuse passion with interest.

If we are willing to spent many hours of our time on something, even sacrificing sleep for it, it have to be passion, right?

Well, I used to sacrifice my sleep for computer games like fallout, romance of three kingdoms, so I am passionate about computer games? 

I think fun and interest will be more appropriate. 

So what is passion? I don't know. But I know interest is not passion. Interest, is time fleeing. The moment u get struck, or did not get a high out of achieving it, u get bored, and u stop doing it. 

Passionate is fuel even in uncomfortable circumstances. When u do well, it recharges you, energies you and propel you to want to do better, better the game, and move up the skill notch. 

But even if u dun do well, you feel like you are letting yourself down. You want to go in and make amends, do it better again. Try other ways, learn, talk to people, whatever, you want to make a difference. 

Even if u dun level up, u still like doing it. If u dun explore new area in a game, or conquer new enemies, make more money, will you continue playing the game?

But continue doing the "same thing" you are passionate about, it might not be very different, but u still do it, because you see meaning in it. You still feel satisfied, because what other see as "more or less the same", you know there is hell a lot of difference

So I first dun agree that if we make a living out of passion, it will kill it. Then it is not passion, it's a interest. 

We dun have to make a living out of our passion, but saying it will kill it is stretching it.

Passion is not making castle in the air. Passion is not dream. While it might be a mistake to follow our dream, it will not be mistake to follow our passion. Dream with execution and action overlap with passion, dream that is "done when I have x in y years" is a day dream. 

Passion is a process, with planning and execution along the way, with satisfaction and anguish building along the way. Yes, we get pissed and annoyed too. And we sometime want to escape, but after a while, it comes back to us, and we will pick up from where we stop. It is not a magic medicine for happiness, it gave you strong emotions, both positive and negative. If you want just the high, going for esctassy pill is perhaps a better medicine choice. 

Do we know our passion? We know when we have it, I think. We cannot assume it is something. Of course, passion might start from a dream and we  knowingly go for it and it was ignited.

You could also have it unknowingly. You can be passionate about your work, your hobby, your life or even in investing.

Did you gave up on "passive" income investing because you found something more passive and perhaps of similar returns? Or did you feel the pain of your mistake but glad that u learn something and tried again, and becoming better at investing, did you become intrigued with how businesses are run. Although perhaps you know that index investing might give better returns, you nontheless still go on? I think that is passion in investing. 

Passion doesn't make you millions la, it just make you look forward to something.  

You can be passionate about saving money too, it is a characteristic, a process, an adjective if u know, but defintely not a static noun.

Random thoughts: Who kind of investor am I? (From "the art of execution" by Lee Freeman)

The book was introduced by Andy from TAcomob blog.

It was an easy read, I finish the book in 3 hours, every page of it and even have time to go through some sections again.

Easy read but highly enlightening. The third or forth book provide some answers to many of my questions. I will add it to my recommended reads. 

I am not giving any summary but internalizing what I read with my own investing experince. When Andy asked me what kind of investor I am, I can't answer. SMoL said I am a Rojak investor. I think I really am. It showed that I dun fit into any of the book's 3 tribes or 2 gangs, in fact I overlapped quite a lot.

The magic range for cut loss is given. 20-33%. FSL was bought at 1.62, it is last traded at 1.75. It went to a low of 1.28. That is a fall of 21%. I always have the mental struggle that had I "cut loss", I would have miss this rebound and I had re-examined my story for buying and the story has not changed except that no dividends has been declared. But I feel that minus has been offset by the well execution of MR Osaka. 

I have a better feel of the range now. 20% is properly too low a bar for me to cut loss. 

As for sembcorp, I did behave like hunter and accumulate at 3.8, with an average price of about $4. If I assume 30% loss as cut loss I would have gotten out at around $2.7. But I watch it go to $2.14 without buying nor selling. I did bid at $2.1 thou. So, it would seem that my temperaments are that more of a hunter than Assassins. 

But wait, there is a problem. Hunter allowed their portfolio to be concentrated because they dare to position big. Also, they have serveral rounds of fire.

I could perhaps only fire 2-3 rounds with my "diversification" at perhaps 2-3 counters out of 8-12 counters? Hardly a good hunter.

So to be a more effective hunter, I could either work to increase my war chest or reduce my counters or do away with the self-imposed limit of not more than 15% in one counter. None of which I am actually comfortable with. In fact, I hope to reduce all my counters to not more than 10% of my portfolio. 

As for being a connoisseur, I hardly recall picking any counter than generate more than 50% return (even if I had sold them earlier) the only 2 examples I can think of is China Gaoxian, from 19 cents to 37 cents (peak at 45cents) and CES at 48 cents. China Gaoxian has gone to the dogs and CES is a shade of its peak. YZJ was bought at AV. Price of 90 cents and its peak is 1.44 (I already sold at 1.2 plus)  So does buy and hold really work? I am better off doing buy and sell isn't it? 

Of course, there are examples like Best world or UMS which are muti-naggers but they are not in my radar. 

So I have the aspiration to be a hunter-connoisseur but is still ill-equipped as a hunter and unconvinced as a connoisseur. The examples quote in the book do buy and hold for 3-5 years, hardly value-investor time frame. Assuming fundementals did not change, there is no guidelines of how much profits is "enough" except that it is trimmed on its way up. I guess we can apply "trailing stop" or valuation method to determine it.  But looking at my own investment radar, even at its peak, YZJ and CES are hardly overvalued. 

Of course, one big contrast is YZJ and CES are all in cyclical industries and is hardly "cash generating"

Machines or companies with "visible future earnings". 

Also hunter exposed themselves to more loss, while it is possible to turn a loss to a win or reduce loss, hunter's accumulation could also magnify the loss. Since gurus with their expert analysis only have a hit rate of 49%, what more to say about mine?

I am not expecting a book to do magic but is just blogging to summarize my thoughts which I find always useful. 

In conclusion, I believe to improve myself better, I might need to do a combination of assassin and hunter to better manage my bullets as I continue to save more and add to the funds. 

As for the winning exits side, I dun believe I can exit near peak and is ok with    My returns so far. 

I hope with more practices, I can improve my returns and I think the first thing I need to do is to reconcile the contradiction of diversification and having enough ammo to have a good position size of a winner? 

Also, it is possible to be both a hunter and assassin? Accumulate more at a lower AV. Price and cut loss when the AV. Price is perhaps 20%-33%? Or hunter and assassin dun mix? 

Also, the effect of dividends in managing "loss" is not discussed. My wife is jumping when I asked her to cut APTT at a loss of 16%. But I told her with her dividends, she actually exited with 5% gains. She said like that also count? I say "of course, it is a safety net"

Still have not found the answer of what kind of investor am I. The only closest answer perhaps is "dividend" investor.

------ 

Andy, if u are reading this, thanks for the recommendation. 

Do you position your portfolio base on market events?

This post is triggered by this article:

http://smr.theedgemarkets.com//article/portfolio-we-are-taking-profit-anticipation-elevated-market-volatility?utm_source=Singapore+Market+Report&utm_campaign=ee5ca7e8b3-Weekend+emailer+-+11+June&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46b7beec93-ee5ca7e8b3-90592117

Wow, the edge portfolio is selling out everything. Well, since it is a virtual portfolio, it is easy to "take profits" and press reset button.

There is also another article in the edge magazine about a fund manager hedging against a "Brexit" event.

I wonder if I should increase cash by selling some of the counters in my portfolio?

I had wanted to add a particular counter but decided to hold my fire instead.

But I wondered if I should increase cash further, especially those with high correlation with the STI.

I increase cash holding as I profit-take, but I have not really increase cash in anticipation of an event of an Brexit.

I think Brexit is scary because of the tonnes of uncertainty it will generate. I think it will definitely impact the Euro Project more than Greece. The "who is next" will be enough to freeze the market IMHO. Unlike recurring events like Fed Meeting, where there will always be another one, Brexit will not be reversible, as least not like you can vote again in 4 years time, or you can meet again in 1 month.

Lets go through the Pros and Cons of increasing Cash so as to crystallize my thoughts (I am talking to myself):

PRO:
1) More cash to take advantage of the volatility if Brexit does happen.
2) The upside if Bremain happens is smaller than the downside if Brexit happens.
3) I still have plenty of counters in the game to take advantage of if Brexit does not happen.
4) Even if Bremain is the conclusion, how long can the bull run?

CONs:
1) The amount of cash to increase might not be significant anyway. From 20% cash to 30-40% cash, depending on the amount I would want to let go.
2) Brexit and Bremain might be a non-event for the markets, or for my counters and those in my radar.
3) I might have to buy back at higher prices if Bremain happens.
4) Market might crash on Monday, rendering my mental exercise useless.

What would you have done?

I think I will start selling if I still have the chance come tomorrow.

Then what to let go?

I am not letting go Accordia Trust because I think Yen is only going to go even higher if Brexit happen and I am prepared to accumulate it further.

Think non-dividend paying and speculative FSL will the first to go.

If I want to increase cash further, I could also:

Reduce ST engineering at no-loss
Reduce SembCorp Industries as cut-loss exercise
Sell Venture which is already sitting on a good 12% profits (Including recent dividends)

or if driven to the extreme, all profit making counters can go. Or should it be dividend paying counters that are still under their purchase price?

What to let go should to be a tougher question to answer than if I should let go.

If you increase cash, how do you decide what go under the chopping knife, and how much?

Comments appreciated... LOL

I would most probably go for very measured cash increase.

Staycation: relaxation is in the mind LOL

I have been looking forward to my staycation at sentosa. Looking out to see the South China Sea, lying on my aircon bed at looking at the trees 

I finally understand myself better through this trip too. My way to recharge, is actually to do nothing and be alone... LOL

Of course, I enjoy my family's company, but the programmes actually dun really excite me. 

We booked 2 nights. The first day, we just stay at the hotel, use the pool and watch the crane dance FOC, which is really quite cool.

I keep thinking of transformers and imagining them breaking free and rushing towards us. LOL. Siao already.

The second day highlight turns out to be the worst day. Kidszania at Singapore at my personal assessment, is the biggest flop as an attraction. 

Queues are super long, staff are unsure of what to do, we spent 10 hours there, but "played" only 4 stations. While no fault of theirs, but having no internet signal there and arguments over queue and crowd management just spoilt my day big time.

The hardware is nice, but the soft ware sai.

To say I am very pissed off because I am hyper active and my son having inherited my valuable genes and keep whining over the long wait just ended with a short quarrel with my wife. But we patched up very quickly. 

I already planned Kidszani type program  in school for at least 5-6 years? I always thought my colleagues are just being nice when they say their children enjoyed my programmes than the real thing. I believe them now, I think about waiting time, turnover rate, food, movie, photo taking, PV to guide ”blur kids" but the real thing is... Zzz... Maybe they should employ me as consultant... 

I am alone writing this while my wife chat with her cousin in another room. I just need pockets of peace and relaxation and time to blog to relax. 

We are going for luge, trick-eye museum and Moch soon. 

But rasa sentosa is really a nice family getaway place.