I read at various forums lamenting another good dividend counter delisting and some bloggers congratulating others for capital gains.
Personally, this episode just show that it is more important to be lucky.
A number of of the assumptions I made about CMPH are wrong. FCF of 1.5-1.8 billion not met. With the economic slowdown in China and the lower trading numbers, the lucrative "goods carriers" should be reduced and I expect operating numbers to worsen.
I intended to sell CMPH into strength as stated in my previous post. When it is trading at 87 cents CD and 84 cents XD, I am thinking seriously to either sell partial or all my stake.
Well, luckily for me, my procrastination brought me some "Ang Bao money".
Obviously, the owners do not think the operating numbers is going to get worse. If they think it will, why not let it get worse, the price get a wacking and offer a "good premium" to exit at lower price? (Think Osim)
I also find it amusing that some forummers are all talking about the potential of the business and how they are now "worse off" since they have one company less to invest. They are either very accurate with their "long term assessment" of the company's potential or they are hindsight riders, now that someone willing to pay $1 so it must be worth more. I however like to think that the major shareholder have been fair to minority shareholders and is taking a risk by itself to privatize it. Relisting it a HK at higher valuation is not a given, IMHO
It is seldom that 2 wrongs make one right. I always feel that my prospecting skills and analysis is Amateurish at best. So, with humility, I hope Lady Luck continue to shine on me.
I am doing some active prospecting to find an replacement, and while I have a few potential, none seem to meet the cut. Any recommendations? LOL
Thanks CMPH. I had a wonderful ride. If buy and sell within 6 months is call short term trading, it is my best trading counter and dividend payer rolled into 1.