Friday, March 27, 2020

Random Reflection: Sell actions?

This post is a think-aloud post. Readers feel free to poke fun. I need to crystallize my thinking through writing, and reading about your persepectives is nice.

Market is going up more than it is going down this week, so I sold some counters which I managed to buy at a low price. However, I didn't really plan this. So I am confused.

Reasons to sell
1) I believed this is not a bottom, and I get it back cheaper, perhaps even cheaper than my third tranch buying price.
2) I wanted to reduce the size of counters which I have already activited 3 rounds of buying. The third round of buying allow me to sit on profits on 20% for CSE and close to 40% for First Reit, I thought it is too good a chance not to do some rebalancing.
3) With this Sell, I increase cash, have more ammo to do third round investing.

Why I suffer from cognitive dissonance:
1) While 20% and 40% profits are rather nice profits in such market, they are not above my average purchase price.
2) If I bought earlier, thinking that I have got a price that in intrinsic higher than what the market it pricing, barring my company going kaput, then what the rush to sell?
3) If I sold to protect profits and adjust portfolio, why did I buy at the first tranche?

Some answers that still leave a nagging feeling:
1) I did not know when is the best price, so I want to have a good average price with a good size, hence I buy the way down, and sell the way up, trading buy and sell, and having lower lower average price with the same ammo.

2)  If I sell thinking that the market will fall again (Another post to explain why), why not sell more? Sell all the counters that are sitting on profits? I would think the reason for selling some and not others, it's due to the quality of companies and the projection of earnings, assuming the Covid 19 dun drag beyond 2020.

25 comments:

  1. Hmm .. think stocks as property collecting rental (dividend) as passive income. How often property investors investing for rental income will keep looking at property market pice and deciding should they sell?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sillyinvestor,

      Listen to what people DO, not what they SAY.

      LOL!


      I guess "he" had the same realisation as you ;)

      Shit! This is not the plain vanilla -20% bear market like in 2016.

      I've made a mistake...

      Eh! What a strong rebound!? I got a free "get out of jail" card!!!

      Hit and run!

      得了便宜还卖乖!


      P.S. I am glad you SOLD already. This post is just talk "male-chicken". If you had sat on your ass and come here asking others what to do... I would have given you a real kick in the you know where!

      Delete
    2. Smol, I not trying to act cute here.

      Of course I am not here to seek opinion. I am here to think aloud. I dun mind some.poking as it helps me think harder. Those who read my blog are not beginners ...

      The dissonance is real

      Delete
    3. CW

      If rental value halved and their property price collapse.

      U see if they is active trading a not... More will get burnt because of leverage and the possible recall

      Delete
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  2. Smol, but writing does really make me clearer of what u want to do.

    I need to make some new calculations after this new "plan" ...

    Lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sillyinvestor,

      The reason I put my comment underneath CW's comment is to poke CW ;)

      I'm asking you to read what CW has done; not what he is saying to you...

      The 得了便宜还卖乖 is for CW.

      LOL!

      CW must be laughing his head off now... You can't catch the little subtleties...







      Delete
    2. Lol. We can read those blog posts talking what to do or seeing what they actually have done. Talking is safer way to make income without taking market risks.

      Delete
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  3. Hi SI,

    My comments are for entertainment only. Dont take it seriously.

    1. I think you got caught up between trading and investing, and at the same time affected by bias like loss aversion, confusing skill with luck, thinking that money is non fungible etc. (e.g. profit is made in selling is related to earlier batch buy price and not average price - actually you are cutting loss, aand reducing size of position due to loss aversion or hoping yo get a better price down the road)

    2. I think it is fine to turn an investing idea to a trading action, as long as you are clear about it, and know that those biases are affecting you. It is ok to change ones mind, as the situation changes, and biases are affecting ones mind. But you must acknowledge it so that you could learn more about youself and improve on your techniques.

    There are many who don't e.g. from goblling up stocks to buy with limited position sizing when stocks price tanks; hindsight analysis on EHT while investing in duds like Marco, YongN with no hidsight analysis etc.

    3. I hope you take other bloggers comments like SMOL and CW for entertainment as well and not to be influenced by their actions/words. Because if you learn from them, the best you can be financially is just like them (no offense to SMOL and CW). You should aim for a better outcome.

    All the Best!

    M

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi M,

      Thanks for your comment. U are quite right about the confusion about investing and trading.

      Maybe u can be more direct, dun get what u trying to say. Think there is a place got trading beyond core holdings, which I have not work out, but will do so soon. Dun want to sell the way up till there is no enlarged portfolio when this whole thing blow over...

      I am also more interested to find out the nitty gritty of companies. I hope even if I dun come.out of this richer, I come out of it wiser

      Delete
  4. Hello M,

    You're a good man!

    No offense taken ;)


    CW, sillyinvestor, and me have met up for coffee several times over the years. That's why we talk the way we do.

    Yes, overfamiliarity has its drawbacks too.

    As an outsider looking from the outside in, you can see certain issues a lot clearer than us.

    I see what you see.

    I know what to do going forward.

    Thanks for the heads-up!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi SI,

    I sense a bit of the FOMO mindset creeping in on the decision to sell and the insecurity about not bailing on this dead cat bounce with the decision to selling more or all. A lot of internal conflict there!

    Nobody has the answer. We all take calculated risk. What's the priority in times of growing uncertainty? Protection of capital!

    Our initial thesis was wrong. Then we recalibrated and could be wrong again. Ok to be wrong but not dead wrong. What's the difference? You know, I know. :)

    Keep our focus to stay in the game and win the marathon. But ask yourself, are you in the marathon to be No.1 to earn bragging rights? I know you are not. So just focus on running it well!

    Btw, I'm also offloading a bit, those counters like Thai Bev, Accordia, and CSE Global already turned in a small profit. Still planning my next move regarding the rest.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HI EY,

      I definitely not planning to be no.1, true be told, I will be very happy just to complete the race. I just did a preliminary relook and calculation, and came up with plan of how to navigate. Hope I get it right. I think I am starting to get what M is saying. It is nice to have this conversation, and I hope readers can get some more ideas to bounce off theirs

      Delete
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