Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Random thoughts: Blind spots

 Blind Spot 1

When it comes to investment, I have wondered aloud what is my competence of circle. The recent rally of the market (Which has turned as I am writing this), makes me realise:

1) Almost all counters in my radar raises with the raising tide. There are some salted fish that didnt move, but a quick check makes me realised I do not really need skills to pick the right stock during a raising market. The odds are heavily stacked against one when the tide rises or falls.

2) My competence hence is to prevent permanent loss such that a company go belly up. I look at various ratios etc. But the "outsized" gains depends a lot of positioning your portfolio according to the themes. A lot of positive news that happen recently depend on luck rather than skills. 

3) Thus it seems, temperament and patience, seems to matter much more beyond the basic investment literacy. I cannot trade daily, I cannot find good companies "anytime", most of the time, it takes a lot of waiting. Waiting for luck to allow the margin of safety to appear to buy, for the thesis to work out.

An example, I recently further accumulate CDG and Koufu. I believe phase 3 will benefit them. Between the 2, I see much more catalysts in Koufu than CDG, yet Koufu price falls more than CDG. 

I See the following in Koufu

1) Management accretive accquisition of dough culture.

2) Macau opening up slowly but surely with China containing Covid very well.

3) 2nd expansion to Phillipines and the prior withdrawn expansion to Indonesia left a deep impression in me. They were trying to bring RandB Bublé tea to indon. (I tried it, nothing special, but reasonably good, able to compete with the rest), but they withdrawn suddenly. When they go to phillipines, they worked with peri peri instead. Opening at their stores to try viability. According to their quarter update, it is deem viable even current covid situation. I paying for competent management (compare this to SPH, with poor customer service and incompetent and overpaid acquisitions, yet the price cheong more than 20% with rumors of restructuring. This again, points to luck.)

4) cost saving (operational wise) with their integrated facility in Woodlands. 25 percent space for external vendors have been filling up

Risks are with the bidding of food courts, there might be some lumpiness here and there. Food courts contracts are 3 years. They have returned contracts before. But I see this as a plus, since they are not chasing numbers mindlessly. 

A compelling story, yet it is the worst performing counter. I believed it might still turnaround, but the timing is pure luck. 

Blind Spot 2

Last day of school, I got my pupils to do digital autographs for one another. They can take photos with t their BFF, and read notes and decorate the photo before sharing it with their friends.

I know of a a few pupils who are very shy, so I encourage them to create autograph for their friends, even if no one ask them for a photo shot. I did ask 1 or 2 pupils to approach them to take some photos with the shy ones.

Surprisingly, at the end of the day, I have 3-4 pupils with no photos/ notes in their folder, and some as many as 9. The 3 pupils do not come across as socially aware, although I knew 1 of them are not actually well-liked

Granted, although I am the co-form teacher of the class, I only teach them once a forthnight or month since semester 2, and there are only a handful of pupils who are my chinese pupils, I am quite shocked how these pupils can slip past my radar. There are very nice kids who are very good friends imho with only 1 invite to autograph too. 


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